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2022 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 10, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta15
BY 10final margin
PanthersCarolina25
Atlanta Falcons 15 at Carolina Panthers 25. Final.
Falcons -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 10
Carolina Panthers 25, Falcons 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:33, 2nd and 7, on Terrace Marshall — 11.5 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:33 · 2nd and 7
Terrace Marshall
Panthers
(5:33) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 38 for 43 yards (54-R.Evans).
U 41.5 ✓
15.3 mph wind
Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 25–15. Biggest swing: Q3 5:33, Panthers +11.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Laviska Shenault Jr.PanthersQ2 4:43(4:43) (Shotgun) 15-L.Shenault left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.5pts
KhaDarel HodgeFalconsQ4 3:01(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Falcons at 3 of 10 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Falcons164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(5:33) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 38 for 43 yards (54-R.Evans).
Swing +11.5 for PanthersExpected points +3.37 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 12 points higher than the market did.play 108
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:33CAR +12% win prob(5:33) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 38 for 43 yards (54-R.Evans).
2nd · 4:43CAR +8% win prob(4:43) (Shotgun) 15-L.Shenault left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:01CAR +8% win prob(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:21ATL +8% win prob(12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left end pushed ob at CAR 19 for 9 yards (25-X.Woods). PENALTY on ATL-46-P.Hesse, Offensive Holding, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 28 - No Play.
3rd · 14:20CAR +8% win prob(14:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
1st · 5:16CAR +7% win prob(5:16) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 12-K.Hodge to CAR 34 for 12 yards (8-J.Horn).
2nd · 4:25
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 46-yard field goal with 7:03 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:03Eddy Pineiro·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+30–3
2nd1:52Eddy Pineiro·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+30–13
2nd0:03Younghoe Koo·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–13
3rd6:20Drake London·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · kick no good, wide right+69–13
3rd1:56D'Onta Foreman·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+69–19
4th9:26Eddy Pineiro·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+39–22
4th3:01KhaDarel Hodge·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · kick blocked by C.Henderson+615–22
4th0:14Eddy Pineiro·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+315–25
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons0–6Panthers
291Total yards333
4.9Yards per play5.2
41%Success rate44%
30%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays8
17First downs17
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Falcons: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Falcons: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.08Panthers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Falcons: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.14Panthers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 59 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Panthers’s 64 at 27%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Panthers 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 20.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 41.9% in week 3.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 9.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
CAR's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, is past their previous high of 22.6% in week 8 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 9.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, −23.5 pts, is past their previous low of −15.8 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Panthers30.6%
off script — got home · +16.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+2.18× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 16.4 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 2.2 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Walker pass+9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:33) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 38 for 43 yards (54-R.Evans).
Q3 5:33 · Panthers · 2nd & 7 at CAR 19 · gained 43 · +3.37 EP · +8.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 97 yards from the ATL 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1164%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1836%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.206%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.3833%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3025%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2843%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.7867%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.320%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 31
Falcons0Panthers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Falcons 28
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Panthers 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Panthers 30
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Falcons 26
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 3 to the Falcons 12
Falcons0Panthers9
Falcons0Panthers10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 41
Intercepted3 plays
Falcons0Panthers13
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Falcons 28
Falcons3Panthers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 15
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Panthers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 8
Falcons9Panthers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 7
Falcons9Panthers19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Falcons 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 46
4th quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Falcons9Panthers22
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Falcons 22
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Panthers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 38
Falcons15Panthers22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 3 to the Panthers 25
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Turnover on downs4 plays
Falcons15Panthers25
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 10
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
