2022 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 10, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina PanthersWinner

ATL -2.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 25–15. Biggest swing: Q3 5:33, CAR +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:33ATL 9 — CAR 13CAR ball · 2nd & 7CAR 59%

(5:33) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 38 for 43 yards (54-R.Evans).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:33CAR +12% win prob(5:33) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 38 for 43 yards (54-R.Evans).
Q2 · 4:43CAR +8% win prob(4:43) (Shotgun) 15-L.Shenault left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:01CAR +8% win prob(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:21ATL +8% win prob(12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left end pushed ob at CAR 19 for 9 yards (25-X.Woods). PENALTY on ATL-46-P.Hesse, Offensive Holding, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 28 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:03CAR Field goal
(7:03) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 3
Q2 · 4:43CAR Touchdown
(4:43) (Shotgun) 15-L.Shenault left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 10
Q2 · 1:52CAR Field goal
(1:52) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 13
Q2 · 0:03ATL Field goal
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — CAR 13
Q3 · 6:20ATL Touchdown
(6:20) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-25-X.Woods, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: ATL 9 — CAR 13
Q3 · 1:56CAR Touchdown
(1:56) (Shotgun) 33-D.Foreman right tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 9 — CAR 19
Q4 · 9:26CAR Field goal
(9:26) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 9 — CAR 22
Q4 · 3:01ATL Touchdown
(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 15 — CAR 22
Q4 · 0:14CAR Field goal
(:14) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 15 — CAR 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Panthers
Offensive plays	59	64
Total yards	291	333 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	41%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	27%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

19/30, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-7.5 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

P.J. WalkerQB

10/16, 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

D'Onta ForemanRB

31 att, 130 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Caleb HuntleyRB

5 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Damiere ByrdWR

3/4 for 58 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

5/6 for 38 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 17	8	9	3:39	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 31	10	41	4:22	Field goal +3
3	ATL	ATL 34	10	33	4:20	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 9	16	61	9:56	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 3	4	9	2:17	Punt
6	CAR	ATL 43	3	43	0:52	Touchdown +7
7	ATL	ATL 25	3	0	0:23	Interception
8	CAR	ATL 45	7	14	2:24	Field goal +3
9	ATL	ATL 25	9	45	1:47	Field goal +3
10	CAR	CAR 25	5	6	0:47	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 29	6	38	3:27	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 2	4	7	1:45	Punt
13	ATL	CAR 42	7	31	2:46	Touchdown +6
14	CAR	CAR 16	9	94	4:24	Touchdown +6
15	ATL	ATL 25	6	23	2:04	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 24	11	54	5:25	Field goal +3
17	ATL	ATL 27	7	13	1:50	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	ATL 40	4	0	2:14	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 3	9	97	2:22	Touchdown +6
20	CAR	CAR 25	5	3	0:23	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 34	4	-15	0:43	Turnover on downs
22	CAR	ATL 19	4	10	1:40	Field goal +3
23	ATL	ATL 20	2	8	0:10	End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 97 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	19/30	186	2	1	5	-7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marcus Mariota	3	43	14.3	3.8
Caleb Huntley	5	32	6.4	1.0
Avery Williams	4	25	6.3	0.0
Tyler Allgeier	8	20	2.5	-2.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	18	3.6	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Damiere Byrd	3	4	58	0	14%	5.1
Drake London	5	6	38	1	21%	2.5
KhaDarel Hodge	2	2	37	1	7%	4.3
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	4	34	0	14%	1.1
Kyle Pitts	2	8	28	0	28%	-3.5
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	2	0	3%	-1.1
Tyler Allgeier	3	3	-17	0	10%	-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Rashaan Evans	5	4	0
Mykal Walker	5	3	0
Richie Grant	3	5	2
Ta'Quon Graham	2	4	0
Grady Jarrett	1	4	0
Lorenzo Carter	2	3	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	2	0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	2	2	0
Rashad Fenton	3	1	0
Darren Hall	2	1	1

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	10/16	108	0	0	1	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	31	130	4.2	1	0.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	42	21.0	1	4.1
Raheem Blackshear	6	32	5.3	0	1.5
P.J. Walker	3	14	4.7	0	1.7
Chuba Hubbard	5	14	2.8	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terrace Marshall	1	2	43	13%	1.2
D.J. Moore	4	6	29	38%	0.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	4	17	25%	-0.1
Shi Smith	1	1	17	6%	2.0
Giovanni Ricci	1	1	2	6%	-0.4
D'Onta Foreman	0	1	0	6%	-1.1
Tommy Tremble	0	1	0	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Frankie Luvu	8	4	2.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	6	2	0.0	0	1
Brian Burns	2	5	1.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	2	4	0.0	0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	3	0.0	0	1
Cory Littleton	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marquis Haynes	2	1	2.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jaycee Horn	1	2	0.0	1	1
Donte Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 41.5
ATL moneyline: -132
CAR moneyline: +119

Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 40 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: ATL 4 days · CAR 4 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Steve Wilks

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.