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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 31, Cowboys 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:47, 3rd and 1, on Allen Lazard — 36.3 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:47 · 3rd and 1
Allen Lazard
Packers
(4:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to DAL 20 for 36 yards (6-D.Wilson, 1-K.Joseph).
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:47, Packers +36.3% win probability on one snap.
36.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rudy FordPackersQ2 2:30(2:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Ford at GB 42. 20-R.Ford ran ob at DAL 24 for 34 yards (89-P.Hendershot).
18.2pts
Kavontae TurpinPackersQ4 0:02(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 9-K.Turpin to DAL 38 for 9 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
18.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 15 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Cowboys181 of 195 plays carry both curves
(4:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to DAL 20 for 36 yards (6-D.Wilson, 1-K.Joseph).
Swing +36.3 for PackersExpected points +2.60 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 191
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:47GB +36% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to DAL 20 for 36 yards (6-D.Wilson, 1-K.Joseph).
4th · 0:02DAL +18% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 9-K.Turpin to DAL 38 for 9 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
2nd · 2:30DAL +18% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Ford at GB 42. 20-R.Ford ran ob at DAL 24 for 34 yards (89-P.Hendershot).
4th · 0:22DAL +15% win prob(:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DAL 19, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
3rd · 8:42GB +14% win prob(8:42) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to GB 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 44 for 11 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 57-L.Gifford). FUMBLES (29-C.Goodwin), RECOVERED by DAL-84-S.McKeon at GB 45.
Overtime · 7:04GB +14% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to GB 35 for 16 yards (23-J.Alexander).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 28-yard field goal with 3:09 left in overtime put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd9:57CeeDee Lamb·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–0
Overtime3:09Mason Crosby·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.CocoLead never changed again+328–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryPackers
Cowboys4–4Packers
421Total yards418
5.3Yards per play7.0
46%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate46%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays8
23First downs17
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Cowboys: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.36Packers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Cowboys: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.15Packers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 79 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Packers’s 60 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Packers 5.
NoteCowboys outgained Packers 421-418 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, −23.7 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −15.4 pts in week 8.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 9.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's blitz rate sent, 47.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 45.2% in week 8.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's play-action rate, 43.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 3.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 37.9% in week 2.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
GB's early-down pass rate, 26.1%, is past their previous low of 39.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 9.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Packers14.6%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.7 pts, 20.3 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 2.3 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
A.Rodgers pass+36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to DAL 20 for 36 yards (6-D.Wilson, 1-K.Joseph).
OT 4:47 · Packers · 3rd & 1 at GB 44 · gained 36 · +2.60 EP · +36.3% win probability
179 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 89 yards from the GB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
836
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.0968%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1745%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.4232%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3047%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0733%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 40
No good10 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Cowboys 36
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 48
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 39
2nd quarter57 plays
Cowboys6Packers0
Cowboys7Packers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 17
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys7Packers6
Cowboys7Packers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
Cowboys7Packers13
Cowboys7Packers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 12
Cowboys13Packers14
Cowboys14Packers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Packers 5
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Cowboys 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 12
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys20Packers14
Cowboys21Packers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 13
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 39
Cowboys27Packers14
Cowboys28Packers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Packers 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 43
4th quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Cowboys28Packers20
Cowboys28Packers21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Cowboys 39
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 37
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys28Packers27
Cowboys28Packers28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Cowboys 7
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 28
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 42
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 29
Overtime19 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Packers 35
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Cowboys28Packers31
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Cowboys 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
