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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
(5:25) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.3 for TitansExpected points +4.81 for TitansThe model had Broncos 3 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:25TEN +19% win prob(5:25) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:30TEN +17% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 15-J.Virgil for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:39DEN +15% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis to DEN 38 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DEN-98-M.Purcell at DEN 38.
4th · 4:07TEN +11% win prob(4:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to DEN 20 for 41 yards (2-P.Surtain).
4th · 0:38DEN +10% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at TEN 30 for -9 yards (99-R.Weaver). FUMBLES (99-R.Weaver) [99-R.Weaver], touched at TEN 29, recovered by DEN-75-Q.Bailey at TEN 30.
1st · 13:17TEN +8% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 9-K.Hinton to DEN 39 for 35 yards (39-T.Mitchell) [94-M.Edwards].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's 63-yard touchdown catch with 5:25 left in the 3rd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd8:30Jalen Virgil·66-yd TD catch66-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–0
2nd2:27Brandon McManus·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap M.Fraboni+310–0
2nd0:16Nick Westbrook-Ikhine·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+710–7
3rd5:25Nick Westbrook-Ikhine·63-yd TD catch63-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+710–14
4th3:02Randy Bullock·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+310–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryTitans
Broncos2–5Titans
314Total yards307
4.4Yards per play5.1
33%Success rate40%
24%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
15First downs13
6Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.16Titans: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Broncos: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.50Titans: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 72 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 60 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Titans 3.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's sack or hit rate, 34.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.8% in week 1.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 9.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 11.5% in week 9 against 32.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Titans34.7%
off script — got home · +20.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+2.60× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.7%, 20.8 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 2.6 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
76Calvin AndersonT · Every snap100%80 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%80 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%80 snaps
9Kendall HintonWR · Full-time96%77 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time93%74 snaps
80Greg DulcichTE · Full-time89%71 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Heavy rotation69%55 snaps
75Quinn BaileyT · Heavy rotation63%50 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Heavy rotation54%43 snaps
57Billy TurnerT · Rotational38%30 snaps
16Tyrie ClevelandWR · Rotational34%27 snaps
60Luke WattenbergC · Rotational31%25 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational31%25 snaps
15Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational30%24 snaps
87Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational26%21 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Situational19%15 snaps
19Chase EdmondsRB · Situational19%15 snaps
12Montrell WashingtonWR · Situational9%7 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 8
Darius PhillipsCBEyioma UwazurikeDEJustin SimmonsFSBaron BrowningILBMarlon MackRBCameron FlemingTAndrew BeckTEK.J. HamlerWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Brett RypienQBAlbert OkwuegbunamTE
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%62 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Dennis DaleyT · Every snap100%62 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%62 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%62 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Full-time98%61 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation77%48 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
40Dontrell HilliardRB · Rotational42%26 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Rotational32%20 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational21%13 snaps
8Cody HollisterWR · Situational15%9 snaps
25Hassan HaskinsRB · Situational3%2 snaps
7Malik WillisQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Kristian FultonCBJeffery SimmonsDTAmani HookerFSJordan RoosGBud DupreeOLBChris ConleyWR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass+21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:25) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 5:25 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 37 · gained 63 · +4.81 EP · +21.1% win probability
177 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 85 yards from the DEN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
36%
Yards
620
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1378%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0279%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.1039%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1161%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.279%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 4 to the Broncos 39
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 38
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 28
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Broncos 44
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 33
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 42 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Broncos6Titans0
Broncos7Titans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 34
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 32
Broncos10Titans0
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Titans 21
Broncos10Titans6
Broncos10Titans7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Broncos 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 39
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Titans 48
How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Broncos10Titans13
Broncos10Titans14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 37
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 23
4th quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 28
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Broncos 34
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 42
Broncos10Titans17
Field goal12 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Broncos 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Intercepted14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Titans 21
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
