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2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Soldier Field

Detroit LionsWinner

31

Chicago Bears

30

CHI -3 upsetO 48.5 ✓

Detroit Lions 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:12, DET +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑DET ↓
Q4 · 1:12DET 31 — CHI 30CHI ball · 4th & 8DET 64%

(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:12DET +30% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).
  2. Q4 · 9:23CHI +29% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 10:38DET +25% win prob(10:38) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Okudah [96-I.Buggs] at CHI 20. 1-J.Okudah for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 3:14CHI +20% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 85-T.Kennedy pushed ob at CHI 14 for 44 yards (4-E.Jackson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:42CHI Field goal

    (10:42) 2-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: DET 0 — CHI 3
  2. Q1 · 3:24DET Field goal

    (3:24) 17-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — CHI 3
  3. Q2 · 7:21DET Touchdown

    (7:21) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — CHI 3
  4. Q2 · 0:21CHI Touchdown

    (:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — CHI 10
  5. Q3 · 7:40CHI Touchdown

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — CHI 17
  6. Q3 · 2:53CHI Touchdown

    (2:53) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — CHI 24
  7. Q4 · 11:42DET Touchdown

    (11:42) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 17 — CHI 24
  8. Q4 · 10:38DET Touchdown

    (10:38) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Okudah [96-I.Buggs] at CHI 20. 1-J.Okudah for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — CHI 24
  9. Q4 · 9:23CHI Touchdown

    (9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 24 — CHI 30
  10. Q4 · 2:24DET Touchdown

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 31 — CHI 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsBears
Offensive plays5858
Total yards324408 (edge)
Yards per play5.67.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.18 (edge)0.07
Success rate50%50%
Dropback rate52%45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.62 (edge)-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.290.22 (edge)
Third downs5/116/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)19
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Bears outgained Lions 408–324 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

19/26, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

17.6 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

12/20, 167 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

13 att, 147 yds, 2 TD

9.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

16 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

10/11 for 119 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

4/7 for 74 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 259704:21Field goal +3
2DETDET 2515687:18Field goal +3
3CHICHI 498223:37Punt
4DETDET 2014847:26Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 2517857:06Touchdown +7
6DETDET 44200:12End of half
7DETDET 25572:05Punt
8CHICHI 2411765:19Touchdown +7
9DETDET 257173:27Punt
10CHICHI 294711:26Touchdown +7
11DETDET 40792:43Punt
12CHICHI 21451:25Punt
13DETDET 455301:58Touchdown +7
14CHICHI 25321:08Defensive touchdown
15CHICHI 255751:18Touchdown +6
16DETDET 25581:33Punt
17CHICHI 40452:15Punt
18DETDET 99913:02Touchdown +7
19CHICHI 207-31:17Turnover on downs
20DETCHI 224101:04End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff19/2623610217.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams16593.71-2.7
Jared Goff4143.50-4.0
Justin Jackson4143.500.4
D'Andre Swift661.01-3.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown1011119044%11.6
Kalif Raymond3347012%4.2
Tom Kennedy124408%3.7
Justin Jackson2314012%-0.8
D'Andre Swift136012%-0.8
James Mitchell11404%-0.1
Brock Wright11214%3.9
Shane Zylstra01004%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone540.001
Aidan Hutchinson701.000
Kerby Joseph520.000
Will Harris400.000
Isaiah Buggs120.000
John Cominsky210.000
C.J. Moore210.000
Julian Okwara212.000
Alim McNeill110.000
Jerry Jacobs110.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields12/20167213-3.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields1314711.329.0
Khalil Herbert10575.700.9
David Montgomery9374.10-2.2
Equanimeous St. Brown294.50-0.2
Dante Pettis188.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cole Kmet4774239%-2.1
Darnell Mooney4457022%5.5
Byron Pringle1212011%1.0
Dante Pettis11906%0.6
Chase Claypool128011%-0.1
David Montgomery11706%-0.4
Trevon Wesco01006%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Sanborn832.000
Jaquan Brisker520.000
Dominique Robinson510.000
Eddie Jackson500.000
Jaylon Johnson300.000
Nicholas Morrow300.000
Justin Jones300.000
Trevis Gipson110.000
Mike Pennel110.000
Joe Thomas200.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
48.5
DET moneyline
+143
CHI moneyline
-159

Bears closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 61 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
34°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
DET 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.