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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 31, Bears 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:12, 4th and 8, on Justin Fields — 30.2 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:12 · 4th and 8
Justin Fields
Lions
(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).
Bears closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:12, Lions +30.2% win probability on one snap.
30.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jeff OkudahLionsQ4 10:38(10:38) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Okudah [96-I.Buggs] at CHI 20. 1-J.Okudah for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.5pts
Justin FieldsBearsQ4 9:23(9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
28.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 1 giveaway.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bears at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Lions154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).
Swing −30.2 for BearsExpected points −3.70 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:12DET +30% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).
4th · 9:23CHI +29% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:38DET +25% win prob(10:38) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Okudah [96-I.Buggs] at CHI 20. 1-J.Okudah for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:14CHI +20% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 85-T.Kennedy pushed ob at CHI 14 for 44 yards (4-E.Jackson).
4th · 3:06CHI +11% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 1 for 13 yards (53-N.Morrow).
3rd · 11:00CHI +9% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to DET 33 for 22 yards (25-W.Harris).
4th · 1:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jamaal Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:24 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:42Cairo Santos·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+30–3
1st3:24Michael Badgley·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–3
2nd7:21Brock Wright·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+710–3
4th9:23Justin Fields·67-yd TD run67-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+624–30
4th2:24Jamaal Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+731–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryBears
Lions4–3Bears
324Total yards408
5.6Yards per play7.0
50%Success rate50%
45%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
21First downs19
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.07Bears: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Lions: +0.62 expected points added per play
−0.10Bears: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Lions: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.22Bears: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 58 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Bears 5.
NoteBears outgained Lions 408-324 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
DET's play-action rate, 40.0%, is past their previous high of 30.8% in week 8 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 25.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Bears10.0%
inside their normal wobble · +1.9 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.5%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 24.5% and 1.6 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass−27% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:38) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Okudah [96-I.Buggs] at CHI 20. 1-J.Okudah for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:38 · Bears · 2nd & 18 at CHI 17 · gained nothing · -6.96 EP · −27.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 132. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 91 yards from the DET 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.2249%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2954%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0625%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3838%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.3350%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5667%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+1.5617%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.060%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Lions0Bears3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 9
Lions3Bears3
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Lions 31
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt2 plays
Lions9Bears3
Lions10Bears3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Bears 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Lions10Bears9
Lions10Bears10
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Lions10Bears16
Lions10Bears17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Lions 6
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 37
Lions10Bears23
Lions10Bears24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 29 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Bears 46
4th quarter55 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 26
Lions16Bears24
Lions17Bears24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Bears 9
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Lions23Bears24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
Lions24Bears24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Lions24Bears30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Lions30Bears30
Lions31Bears30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Bears 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 32
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Bears 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
