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New York Giants 24, Texans 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 12:46, 3rd and 9, on Darius Slayton — 12.9 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:46 · 3rd and 9
Darius Slayton
Giants
(12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison].
Giants closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 8.
New York Giants 24–16. Biggest swing: Q3 12:46, Giants +12.9% win probability on one snap.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davis MillsGiantsQ1 14:04(14:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 25 for -12 yards (sack split by 27-J.Pinnock and 97-D.Lawrence).
8.2pts
Dameon PierceGiantsQ4 14:17(14:17) 31-D.Pierce left tackle to NYG 8 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams, 5-K.Thibodeaux). FUMBLES (99-L.Williams), touched at NYG 7, RECOVERED by NYG-54-J.Smith at NYG 7. 54-J.Smith to NYG 11 for 4 yards (60-A.Cann). Penalty on HOU-59-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.
8.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Texans at 3 of 10 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Texans169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison].
Swing +12.9 for GiantsExpected points +5.52 for GiantsThe model had Texans 7 points higher than the market did.play 94
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:46NYG +13% win prob(12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison].
4th · 14:17HOU +9% win prob(14:17) 31-D.Pierce left tackle to NYG 8 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams, 5-K.Thibodeaux). FUMBLES (99-L.Williams), touched at NYG 7, RECOVERED by NYG-54-J.Smith at NYG 7. 54-J.Smith to NYG 11 for 4 yards (60-A.Cann). Penalty on HOU-59-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 14:04HOU +8% win prob(14:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 25 for -12 yards (sack split by 27-J.Pinnock and 97-D.Lawrence).
3rd · 8:12NYG +8% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:39NYG +7% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce right tackle to NYG 19 for 44 yards (20-J.Love).
1st · 9:33NYG +7% win prob(9:33) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton to HOU 6 for 36 yards (36-J.Owens).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lawrence Cager's 9-yard touchdown catch with 7:57 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:57Lawrence Cager·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel JonesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:32Ka'imi Fairbairn·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–7
3rd12:46Darius Slayton·54-yd TD catch54-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–14
3rd8:12Nico Collins·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+710–14
4th2:26Ka'imi Fairbairn·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+313–21
4th2:00Graham Gano·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+313–24
4th0:11Ka'imi Fairbairn·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+316–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryGiants
Texans4–4Giants
387Total yards368
6.5Yards per play5.6
45%Success rate42%
30%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
21First downs18
4Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Texans: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.14Giants: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Texans: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.56Giants: +0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Texans: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.08Giants: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Giants’s 66 at 35%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Giants 3.
NoteTexans outgained Giants 387-368 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.7% in week 9 against 66.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Giants24.4%
inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 25.0 points below their season mean of 51.9% and 2.0 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%64 snaps
59Kenyon GreenG · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
54Scott QuessenberryC · Every snap100%64 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Full-time94%60 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
15Chris MooreWR · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
83O.J. HowardTE · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
4Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational44%28 snaps
84Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational42%27 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
34Troy HairstonFB · Situational13%8 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational6%4 snaps
64Justin McCrayC · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Isaac YiadomCBNeville HewittILBAustin DeculusTBrevin JordanTETyron JohnsonWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison].
Q3 12:46 · Giants · 3rd & 9 at NYG 46 · gained 54 · +5.52 EP · +14.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 76 yards from the HOU 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
754
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1433%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1582%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2656%
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR5+0.070%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3540%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Texans0Giants6
Texans0Giants7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Texans 6
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 30
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Texans 37
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Texans3Giants7
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Giants 18
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Texans 27
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 45
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 25
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Giants 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 37
3rd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Texans3Giants13
Texans3Giants14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 46
Texans9Giants14
Texans10Giants14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Giants 7
Texans10Giants20
Texans10Giants21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Texans 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Giants 49
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 20
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Giants 14
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 49
Texans13Giants21
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Giants 16
Texans13Giants24
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 31
Texans16Giants24
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Giants 17
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
