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2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

25

Las Vegas Raiders

20

LV -4.5 upsetO 41 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 25–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:52, IND +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 0:52IND 25 — LV 20LV ball · 4th & 7IND 63%

(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:52IND +34% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).
  2. Q4 · 11:47LV +29% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 1:12LV +23% win prob(1:12) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 5:14LV +20% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:21IND Touchdown

    (3:21) 2-M.Ryan up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — LV 0
  2. Q2 · 12:43IND Field goal

    (12:43) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — LV 0
  3. Q2 · 1:03LV Touchdown

    (1:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — LV 7
  4. Q2 · 0:03IND Field goal

    (:03) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — LV 7
  5. Q3 · 1:55LV Touchdown

    (1:55) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — LV 14
  6. Q3 · 1:12IND Touchdown

    (1:12) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 19 — LV 14
  7. Q4 · 11:47LV Touchdown

    (11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 19 — LV 20
  8. Q4 · 5:14IND Touchdown

    (5:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 25 — LV 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsRaiders
Offensive plays5965
Total yards417 (edge)309
Yards per play7.1 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play0.15 (edge)-0.07
Success rate51% (edge)38%
Dropback rate54%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.16 (edge)0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)-0.26
Third downs6/11 (edge)6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)19
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers10 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

24/38, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

21/28, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

22 att, 147 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

21 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

9/14 for 126 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Parris CampbellWR

7/9 for 76 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 30551:16Punt
2INDIND 184101:30Punt
3LVLV 364-42:23Punt
4INDIND 3012706:34Touchdown +7
5LVLV 25540:53Punt
6INDIND 2010554:46Field goal +3
7LVLV 259284:38Turnover on downs
8INDIND 474311:22Fumble
9LVLV 2113895:40Touchdown +7
10INDIND 258400:58Field goal +3
11INDIND 2512455:58Missed field goal
12LVLV 3813677:11Touchdown +7
13INDIND 304700:50Touchdown +6
14LVLV 38582:02Punt
15INDIND 5431:27Punt
16LVIND 484480:56Touchdown +6
17INDIND 256111:56Punt
18LVLV 254-51:40Punt
19INDIND 186822:53Touchdown +6
20LVLV 2515694:20Turnover on downs
21INDIND 16200:47End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 89 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matt Ryan21/282221017.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor221476.712.5
Matt Ryan4389.513.6
Jordan Wilkins3186.001.1
Zack Moss144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parris Campbell7976133%4.8
Kylen Granson4457015%3.7
Michael Pittman7953033%1.7
Keke Coutee112004%-3.8
Jonathan Taylor221607%0.8
Alec Pierce02007%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin630.000
Bobby Okereke630.001
Kenny Moore610.001
Rodney McLeod510.000
Stephon Gilmore230.002
Grover Stewart311.000
DeForest Buckner220.501
E.J. Speed210.000
Nick Cross210.000
Isaiah Rodgers100.002

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr24/382482022.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs21783.71-3.6
Mack Hollins100.00-1.2
Zamir White2-1-0.50-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams914126137%4.3
Foster Moreau3443111%3.7
Ameer Abdullah4433011%2.3
Josh Jacobs6828021%-0.9
Mack Hollins2618016%-2.2
Keelan Cole02005%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Maxx Crosby461.000
Jayon Brown340.000
Sam Webb520.002
Amik Robertson330.001
Luke Masterson240.000
Trevon Moehrig400.000
Darien Butler130.000
Duron Harmon220.000
Andrew Billings310.000
Rock Ya-Sin200.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -4.5
Closing total
41
IND moneyline
+177
LV moneyline
-199

Raiders closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 45 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
IND 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Jeff Saturday vs Josh McDaniels