For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Colts161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).
Swing −33.7 for RaidersExpected points −2.59 for RaidersThe model had Colts 2 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:52IND +34% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).
4th · 11:47LV +29% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:12LV +23% win prob(1:12) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:14LV +20% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:49LV +19% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end to LV 36 for 39 yards (21-A.Robertson).
4th · 1:45LV +13% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at IND 19 for 16 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
4th · 0:56IND +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Parris Campbell's 35-yard touchdown catch with 5:14 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th5:14Parris Campbell·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no goodLead never changed again+625–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryRaiders
Colts7–2Raiders
417Total yards309
7.1Yards per play4.8
51%Success rate38%
55%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays3
21First downs19
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.07Raiders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Colts: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.05Raiders: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Colts: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.26Raiders: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 59 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Raiders’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Raiders 4.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders3.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 10.3 points below their season mean of 13.5% and 1.5 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).
Q4 0:52 · Raiders · 4th & 7 at IND 16 · gained nothing · -2.59 EP · −31.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 82 yards from the IND 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
41%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3156%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0985%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.1928%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4544%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 35
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 23
Punt6 plays
Colts6Raiders0
Colts7Raiders0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Raiders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 32
2nd quarter46 plays
Colts10Raiders0
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Raiders 30
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 44
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Raiders 42
Colts10Raiders6
Colts10Raiders7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Colts 4
The period ended1 play
Colts13Raiders7
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 30
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
No good12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 16
Colts13Raiders13
Colts13Raiders14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Colts 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Colts19Raiders14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 41
4th quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 41
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Colts19Raiders20
Touchdown4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 40
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts25Raiders20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Raiders 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended17 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 16
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
