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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 10
It turned at Q1 9:04, 1st and 10, on Isiah Pacheco — 10.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:04 · 1st and 10
Isiah Pacheco
Jaguars
(9:04) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 9 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 7. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 24 for 17 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 15-P.Mahomes).
Kansas City Chiefs 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 9:04, Jaguars +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.17 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(9:04) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 9 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 7. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 24 for 17 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 15-P.Mahomes).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kadarius Toney's 6-yard touchdown catch with 3:39 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Kadarius Toney6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
Noah Gray13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+60–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 61 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Chiefs 5.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's early-down pass rate, 73.3%, is past their previous high of 65.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
KC's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 14.9% in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected, +6.6 pts, is past their previous high of +4.4 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 9 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.3 points.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 84.3% in week 9 against 62.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars6.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.5 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 61 snaps
Chiefs14.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jaguars73.3%leaned — passed early · +16.5 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 45 early downs
Chiefs62.0%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Jaguars29.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Chiefs30.0%leaned — faked the run · +12.3 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.5 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±23.3 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Jaguars12.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs29.2%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jaguars10.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs10.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
JAX's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.3%, 16.5 points above their season mean of 56.8% and 1.6 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
26/35, 331 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
20.0 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
29/40, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.0 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
9/12 for 105 yds, 2 TD
31% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Christian Kirk banked 10.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.5 | +10.5 | 92% | 92% | 31% | 35% | 9/12, 105 yd, 2 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 31.1 | +8.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/35, 331 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 39 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | +1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/40, 259 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 26 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 20.1 | +5.8 | 73% | 70% | 20% | 19% | 6/7, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.0 | +6.8 | 44% | 38% | 14% | 14% | 2 car, 33 yd · 4/5, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.0 | +6.2 | 84% | 75% | 11% | 27% | 3/4, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.8 | −0.3 | 94% | 92% | 26% | 30% | 8/10, 68 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB · Receiving Back | 11.8 | −1.8 | 38% | 43% | 23% | 10% | 1 car, 2 yd · 6/8, 56 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.3 | +0.1 | 78% | 67% | 8% | 0% | 11 car, 45 yd · 3/3, 28 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +5.5 | 46% | 38% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 6.2 | −3.1 | 56% | 38% | 0% | — | 16 car, 82 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −1.1 | 38% | 35% | 11% | 18% | 2/4, 33 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.5 | 88% | 83% | 10% | 10% | 3/4, 14 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −1.5 | 69% | 67% | 8% | 26% | 1/3, 33 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.4 | 73% | 60% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 1.6 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 25% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 1.3 | −2.1 | 22% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 0.0 | −3.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael BurtonRB | -0.1 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:04) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 9 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 7. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 24 for 17 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 15-P.Mahomes).
Q1 9:04 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at JAX 13 · gained 4 · -5.85 EP · −16.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Jaguars0
Chiefs6Jaguars0Chiefs7Jaguars0Chiefs13Jaguars0Chiefs14Jaguars0Chiefs20Jaguars6Chiefs20Jaguars7Chiefs20Jaguars10Chiefs20Jaguars10Chiefs26Jaguars10Chiefs27Jaguars16Chiefs27Jaguars17Chiefs27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 29/40 | 259 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +7.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 9 | 12 | 105 | 2 | 31% | +7.9 |
| Zay Jones | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 26% | +9.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Muma | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/35 | 331 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +20.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_10_JAX_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 44 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 8% | +2.5 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −1.2 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −2.8 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −2.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
| 82 |
| 5.1 |
| 0 |
| −5.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 20% | +8.1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 11% | +3.6 |
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 14% | +3.7 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 23% | +0.2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 6% | +2.8 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Willie Gay | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Dunlap | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
