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2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

17

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

KC -10 pushU 51.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 9:04, JAX +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑JAX ↓
Q1 · 9:04JAX 0 — KC 0KC ball · 1st & 10KC 86%

(9:04) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 9 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 7. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 24 for 17 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 15-P.Mahomes).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 9:04JAX +10% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 9 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 7. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 24 for 17 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 15-P.Mahomes).
  2. Q1 · 12:55KC +10% win prob(12:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
  3. Q1 · 14:59KC +7% win prob(14:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to KC 47 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton).
  4. Q1 · 12:13KC +6% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end pushed ob at KC 41 for 19 yards (91-D.Smoot).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:39KC Touchdown

    (3:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-K.Toney for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — KC 7
  2. Q2 · 10:01KC Touchdown

    (10:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — KC 14
  3. Q2 · 0:51KC Touchdown

    (:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — KC 20
  4. Q2 · 0:15JAX Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — KC 20
  5. Q3 · 5:50JAX Field goal

    (5:50) 10-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — KC 20
  6. Q3 · 0:41KC Touchdown

    (:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — KC 27
  7. Q4 · 5:32JAX Touchdown

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — KC 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsChiefs
Offensive plays6161
Total yards315487 (edge)
Yards per play5.28.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.090.27 (edge)
Success rate44%54% (edge)
Dropback rate79%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.170.59 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.33
Third downs4/147/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)510 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1724 (edge)
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/35, 331 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

20.0 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

29/40, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.0 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

16 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

11 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

9/12 for 105 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/7 for 81 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCJAX 467152:11Punt
2KCKC 209713:53Fumble
3JAXJAX 245322:46Punt
4KCKC 206802:38Touchdown +7
5JAXJAX 335-62:20Punt
6KCKC 216121:37Punt
7JAXJAX 467263:17Missed field goal
8KCKC 414591:23Touchdown +7
9JAXJAX 255132:06Punt
10KCKC 37461:24Punt
11JAXJAX 65243:04Punt
12KCKC 149762:35Touchdown +6
13JAXJAX 397610:35Touchdown +7
14KC—100:04Fumble
15JAXKC 32290:07Missed field goal
16JAXJAX 2518639:14Field goal +3
17KCKC 2512785:08Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 258243:30Punt
19KCKC 78434:13Interception
20JAXJAX 469542:29Touchdown +7
21KCKC 1012625:26End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence29/402592057.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne11454.10-0.8
Trevor Lawrence4266.50-0.9
Jamycal Hasty144.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Kirk912105231%7.9
Zay Jones81068026%9.9
Marvin Jones133308%0.2
Travis Etienne332808%2.5
Evan Engram3414010%-1.2
Dan Arnold11803%0.3
Jamal Agnew344010%-2.8
Jamycal Hasty12-105%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun700.000
Chad Muma420.000
Josh Hines-Allen230.000
Rayshawn Jenkins410.000
Andre Cisco300.012
Devin Lloyd210.000
Montaric Brown300.000
Darious Williams300.000
Arden Key200.000
Caleb Johnson200.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes26/3533141020.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco16825.10-5.9
Patrick Mahomes7395.600.5
Kadarius Toney23316.501.5
Jerick McKinnon122.00-0.3
Michael Burton1-1-1.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce6781120%8.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling3460111%3.6
Kadarius Toney4557114%3.7
Jerick McKinnon6856023%0.2
JuJu Smith-Schuster2433011%1.5
Noah Gray222016%2.8
Justin Watson111203%0.8
Skyy Moore11603%0.5
Joseph Fortson11603%0.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire02006%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton430.000
Trent McDuffie430.002
Willie Gay421.001
L'Jarius Sneed140.000
Justin Reid230.000
Carlos Dunlap230.500
Joshua Williams400.000
Michael Danna120.000
Bryan Cook210.000
Juan Thornhill210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -10
Closing total
51.5
JAX moneyline
+333
KC moneyline
-399

Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 44 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
33°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
JAX 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Andy Reid