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2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

16

San Francisco 49ersWinner

22

SF -8.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 22–16. Biggest swing: Q4 8:25, SF +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 8:25LAC 16 — SF 13SF ball · 3rd & 10SF 57%

(8:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to LAC 2 for 24 yards (32-A.Gilman). 10 YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 8:25SF +18% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to LAC 2 for 24 yards (32-A.Gilman). 10 YAC
  2. Q2 · 8:38SF +13% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-D.Carter to SF 2 for 33 yards (31-T.Gipson) [94-C.Omenihu]. 16 YAC
  3. Q1 · 11:42SF +10% win prob(11:42) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC
  4. Q3 · 12:48LAC +8% win prob(12:48) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to LAC 30 for no gain (49-D.Tranquill; 95-C.Covington).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:42LAC Touchdown

    (11:42) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — SF 0
  2. Q1 · 4:12SF Field goal

    (4:12) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — SF 3
  3. Q2 · 14:56LAC Field goal

    (14:56) 15-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 10 — SF 3
  4. Q2 · 6:45LAC Field goal

    (6:45) 15-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 13 — SF 3
  5. Q2 · 2:00SF Touchdown

    (2:00) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 13 — SF 10
  6. Q2 · 0:03LAC Field goal

    (:03) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 16 — SF 10
  7. Q3 · 8:55SF Field goal

    (8:55) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: LAC 16 — SF 13
  8. Q4 · 8:00SF Touchdown

    (8:00) (No Huddle) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-69-S.Joseph, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: LAC 16 — SF 19
  9. Q4 · 1:01SF Field goal

    (1:01) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: LAC 16 — SF 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargers49ers
Offensive plays5669
Total yards238388 (edge)
Yards per play4.35.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.150.06 (edge)
Success rate29%54% (edge)
Dropback rate77%43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.140.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.01 (edge)
Third downs6/169/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)59 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1023 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers11

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

19/28, 240 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

10.1 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/35, 196 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

18 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

14 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

6/7 for 84 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

DeAndre CarterWR

4/4 for 64 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 259753:25Touchdown +7
2SFSF 3115677:25Field goal +3
3LACLAC 138383:26Punt
4SFSF 171180:10Fumble
5LACSF 32430:42Field goal +3
6SFSF 25551:18Punt
7LACLAC 30441:26Punt
8SFSF 24491:43Punt
9LACSF 469443:43Field goal +3
10SFSF 2511804:45Touchdown +7
11LACLAC 2512221:57Field goal +3
12SFSF 2513676:08Field goal +3
13LACLAC 257262:22Punt
14SFSF 206202:52Punt
15LACLAC 217163:45Punt
16SFSF 2315876:59Touchdown +6
17LACLAC 25531:14Punt
18SFSF 308294:37Punt
19LACLAC 1470:46Turnover on downs
20SFLAC 8460:19Field goal +3
21LACLAC 23200:15Interception
22SFLAC 42100:43End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert21/35196112-6.7
Chase Daniel0/20001-1.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler6244.00-1.1
Justin Herbert5224.403.2
Isaiah Spiller430.80-2.1
Sony Michel122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Carter4464111%5.6
Josh Palmer3844023%-6.7
Austin Ekeler71239034%-0.9
Gerald Everett222306%2.1
Tre' McKitty3621017%-1.9
Richard Rodgers11403%-0.9
Zander Horvath11103%-0.4
Michael Bandy01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill580.000
Derwin James760.000
Michael Davis330.000
Nasir Adderley140.000
Alohi Gilman410.000
Christian Covington140.000
Breiden Fehoko130.000
Kenneth Murray130.000
Sebastian Joseph310.000
Asante Samuel120.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo19/2824000110.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Elijah Mitchell18894.900.9
Christian McCaffrey14382.71-2.9
Deebo Samuel4276.800.6
Jimmy Garoppolo530.61-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brandon Aiyuk6784025%0.6
Jauan Jennings4440014%5.7
Christian McCaffrey4639021%0.4
Ray-Ray McCloud113304%2.2
Deebo Samuel2624021%-2.6
George Kittle122107%2.1
Elijah Mitchell12-107%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner330.003
Dre Greenlaw510.000
Nick Bosa401.000
Tashaun Gipson220.000
Kerry Hyder220.000
Jimmie Ward400.000
Azeez Al-Shaair120.000
Jordan Willis211.000
Charvarius Ward110.001
Talanoa Hufanga110.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -8.5
Closing total
45.5
LAC moneyline
+302
SF moneyline
-357

49ers closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 38 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
57°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
LAC 7 days · SF 14 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Kyle Shanahan