For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Chargers161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(8:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to LAC 2 for 24 yards (32-A.Gilman). 10 YAC
Swing +17.6 for 49ersExpected points +3.04 for 49ersThe model had Chargers 5 points higher than the market did.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:25SF +18% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to LAC 2 for 24 yards (32-A.Gilman). 10 YAC
2nd · 8:38SF +13% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-D.Carter to SF 2 for 33 yards (31-T.Gipson) [94-C.Omenihu]. 16 YAC
1st · 11:42SF +10% win prob(11:42) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC
3rd · 12:48LAC +8% win prob(12:48) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to LAC 30 for no gain (49-D.Tranquill; 95-C.Covington).
2nd · 5:33SF +8% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 44 for 21 yards (32-A.Gilman; 24-N.Adderley). 9 YAC
3rd · 12:03SF +7% win prob(12:03) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to LAC 29 for 1 yard (95-C.Covington; 49-D.Tranquill).
1st · 12:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 8:00 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd0:03Cameron Dicker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+316–10
3rd8:55Robbie Gould·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+316–13
4th8:00Christian McCaffrey·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+616–19
4th1:01Robbie Gould·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+316–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by category49ers
Chargers0–849ers
238Total yards388
4.3Yards per play5.6
29%Success rate54%
38%Third-down rate53%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays9
10First downs23
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.0649ers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Chargers: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Chargers: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.0149ers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 56 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against 49ers’s 69 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 28.1% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
LAC's blitz rate sent turned over: 44.4% in week 9 against 16.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers20.9%
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.3%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 13.5% and 1.4 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to LAC 2 for 24 yards (32-A.Gilman). 10 YAC
Q4 8:25 · 49ers · 3rd & 10 at LAC 26 · gained 24 · +3.04 EP · +12.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 77 yards from the SF 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
37%
Yards
625
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2280%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5272%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.2326%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2322%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3960%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Chargers649ers0
Chargers749ers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the 49ers 32
Chargers749ers3
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Chargers 2
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the 49ers 49
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Chargers1049ers3
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 33
Chargers1349ers3
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the 49ers 2
Chargers1349ers9
Chargers1349ers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chargers 1
Chargers1649ers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the 49ers 20
3rd quarter34 plays
Chargers1649ers13
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chargers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the 49ers 44
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 33
4th quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chargers1649ers19
Touchdown16 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Chargers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 28
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Chargers 41
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Chargers 8
Chargers1649ers22
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 1
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
