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Minnesota Vikings 33, Bills 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:49, 1st and 10 — 75.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:49 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
(:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Bills closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, Vikings +75.7% win probability on one snap.
75.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsBillsQ4 0:50(:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
52.3pts
Patrick PetersonVikingsOT 1:19(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -2. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 5 for 7 yards.
74.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 2 giveaways, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Vikings at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Vikings197 of 212 plays carry both curves
(:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. T
Swing −75.7 for BillsExpected points −6.83 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:49MIN +76% win prob(:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 1:19MIN +75% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -2. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 5 for 7 yards.
4th · 0:50MIN +52% win prob(:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 3:45MIN +26% win prob(3:45) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Overtime · 7:33BUF +24% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at MIN 45 - No Play.
Overtime · 2:55BUF +21% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 33-yard field goal with 3:45 left in overtime put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:05Tyler Bass·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+330–30
Overtime3:45Greg Joseph·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+333–30
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBills
Vikings2–7Bills
482Total yards486
6.2Yards per play6.8
45%Success rate54%
41%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
11Explosive plays10
22First downs27
4Sacks taken2
2Turnovers4
The read
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Vikings: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Vikings: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.18Bills: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.59Bills: −0.59 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 78 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Bills’s 72 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Bills 7.
NoteBills outgained Vikings 486-482 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.0 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.6% in week 9 against 8.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
BUF's blitz rate sent turned over: 44.8% in week 9 against 14.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Bills16.1%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 38.1 points above their season mean of 36.9% and 1.4 times their own 28.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Allen pass−75% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -2. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 5 for 7 yards.
OT 1:19 · Bills · 2nd & 10 at MIN 20 · gained nothing · -3.46 EP · −74.9% win probability
195 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 212 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 212 snaps, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 81 yards from the MIN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
212 of 212 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
212
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
47%
Yards
967
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.0464%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.0582%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3031%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0360%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
212 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
212 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Vikings6Bills0
Vikings7Bills0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Bills 22
Vikings7Bills6
Vikings7Bills7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 4
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Vikings7Bills13
Vikings7Bills14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Vikings 1
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 36
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Vikings7Bills17
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 14
Vikings10Bills17
Field goal14 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Bills 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Vikings 34
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 28
Vikings10Bills23
Vikings10Bills24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Vikings 11
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
3rd quarter40 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Bills 36
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Vikings 49
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 43
Vikings10Bills27
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Vikings 22
Vikings16Bills27
Vikings17Bills27
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 31
4th quarter60 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Vikings 7
Vikings23Bills27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Bills 3
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsIn the boxTen defenders
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Bills 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Vikings29Bills27
Touchdown1 play
Vikings30Bills27
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Vikings30Bills30
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Vikings 11
The period ended3 plays
Overtime24 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Vikings33Bills30
Field goal16 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bills 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Vikings 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -6.5
Closing total
47
Vikings moneyline
+230
Bills moneyline
-264
Bills closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 63 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 38°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the west; 0.08 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Sean McDermott
(2:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to MIN 34 for 20 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
4th · 2:00BUF +21% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to BUF 41 for 32 yards (39-C.Lewis).
2nd · 3:28MIN +16% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left end to MIN 27 for 7 yards (21-A.Evans; 54-E.Kendricks). FUMBLES (21-A.Evans), touched at MIN 27, RECOVERED by MIN-24-C.Bynum at MIN 23. 24-C.Bynum pushed ob at BUF 37 for 40 yards (17-J.Allen). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Vikingscategory by categoryBills
Vikings6
Bills0
