2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · New Era Field
Minnesota VikingsWinner
33
Buffalo Bills
30
Minnesota Vikings 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, MIN +76% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. T
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:49MIN +76% win prob(:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- OT · 1:19MIN +75% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -2. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 5 for 7 yards.
- Q4 · 0:50MIN +52% win prob(:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- OT · 3:45MIN +26% win prob(3:45) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 10:19MIN Touchdown
(10:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — BUF 0 - Q1 · 8:14BUF Touchdown
(8:14) (Shotgun) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — BUF 7 - Q1 · 1:08BUF Touchdown
(1:08) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — BUF 14 - Q2 · 12:57BUF Field goal
(12:57) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIN 7 — BUF 17 - Q2 · 7:15MIN Field goal
(7:15) 1-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 10 — BUF 17 - Q2 · 0:33BUF Touchdown
(:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 10 — BUF 24 - Q3 · 1:56BUF Field goal
(1:56) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIN 10 — BUF 27 - Q3 · 1:46MIN Touchdown
(1:46) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 17 — BUF 27 - Q4 · 4:38MIN Touchdown
(4:38) 30-C.Ham left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 23 — BUF 27 - Q4 · 0:49MIN Touchdown
(:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 30 — BUF 27 - Q4 · 0:05BUF Field goal
(:05) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIN 30 — BUF 30 - OT · 3:45MIN Field goal
(3:45) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 33 — BUF 30
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Vikings | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 78 | 72 |
| Total yards | 482 | 486 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.2 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.07 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 45% | 54% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 72% | 69% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.10 | 0.18 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.01 (edge) | -0.59 |
| Third downs | 7/17 | 7/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 11 (edge) | 10 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 | 27 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 (edge) | 4 |
Bills outgained Vikings 486–482 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · MIN
30/50, 357 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
4.9 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
29/43, 330 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
2.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
10/16 for 193 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 24 | 5 | 2 | 1:53 | Punt | |
| 2 | MIN | MIN 26 | 7 | 74 | 2:54 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | BUF | MIN 47 | 6 | 32 | 2:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 14 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 30 | 11 | 70 | 5:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | MIN | MIN 25 | 3 | 11 | 0:46 | Interception | |
| 7 | BUF | MIN 27 | 7 | 12 | 2:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | MIN | MIN 45 | 13 | 56 | 5:41 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 10 | 8 | 63 | 3:57 | Fumble | |
| 10 | MIN | BUF 37 | 4 | 9 | 1:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 29 | 6 | 71 | 1:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 2 | 0:28 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIN | MIN 22 | 7 | 42 | 2:38 | Interception | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 42 | 4 | 6 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 15 | MIN | MIN 23 | 7 | 19 | 4:06 | Punt | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 27 | 8 | 46 | 4:21 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | MIN | MIN 19 | 3 | 81 | 0:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 26 | 14 | 77 | 6:07 | Interception | |
| 19 | MIN | MIN 34 | 14 | 66 | 5:53 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 28 | 5 | 0 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 21 | MIN | MIN 24 | 12 | 60 | 2:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | BUF | BUF 1 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 23 | BUF | BUF 20 | 6 | 55 | 0:39 | Field goal +3 | |
| 24 | MIN | MIN 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | MIN | MIN 25 | 13 | 48 | 6:18 | Field goal +3 | |
| 26 | BUF | BUF 28 | 7 | 52 | 2:30 | Interception |
11 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 81 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Minnesota Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/50 | 357 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 119 | 8.5 | 1 | 2.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | -5.4 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | -0.3 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 1.6 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.9 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 16 | 193 | 1 | 32% | 10.5 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 14% | 4.1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 20% | 2.3 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 22% | -8.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10% | 1.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | 0.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandon Sullivan | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Eric Kendricks | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| James Lynch | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| C.J. Ham | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Booth | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 29/43 | 330 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6 | 84 | 14.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 2 | -6.6 |
| James Cook | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 12 | 16 | 128 | 0 | 39% | 7.5 |
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 10 | 93 | 1 | 24% | 1.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 15% | -2.4 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | 3.3 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | 0.8 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | -0.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damar Hamlin | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -6.5
- Closing total
- 47
- MIN moneyline
- +230
- BUF moneyline
- -264
Bills closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 63 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 38°F, wind 11 mph
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- MIN 7 days · BUF 7 days
- Coaches
- Kevin O'Connell vs Sean McDermott