2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -1 ✓U 39.5 ✓15 mph windSteelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 12:22, NO +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:22NO 10 — PIT 13NO ball · 3rd & 5PIT 67%

(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:22NO +10% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).
Q3 · 8:59NO +10% win prob(8:59) 4-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q3 · 1:26PIT +10% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson to NO 20 for 36 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Q3 · 8:09PIT +8% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NO 43 for 14 yards (29-L.Wallace).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:09PIT Touchdown
(5:09) (No Huddle) 14-G.Pickens right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — PIT 7
Q2 · 14:20PIT Field goal
(14:20) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NO 0 — PIT 10
Q2 · 6:44NO Field goal
(6:44) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 3 — PIT 10
Q2 · 0:23NO Touchdown
(:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — PIT 10
Q4 · 13:47PIT Field goal
(13:47) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NO 10 — PIT 13
Q4 · 8:40PIT Touchdown
(8:40) 8-K.Pickett right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — PIT 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Steelers
Offensive plays	45	78
Total yards	186	381 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.29	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	27%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.73	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	9/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

18/30, 199 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.6 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

17/27, 174 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

20 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

8 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

4/5 for 63 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

5/7 for 44 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	8	21	1:56	Punt
2	NO	NO 9	4	4	2:05	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 43	13	46	5:53	Touchdown +7
4	NO	NO 10	7	28	2:55	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 20	8	50	2:54	Field goal +3
6	NO	NO 28	6	15	1:39	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 11	4	7	1:54	Punt
8	NO	NO 34	9	40	4:04	Field goal +3
9	PIT	PIT 25	11	26	4:47	Punt
10	NO	NO 29	7	56	1:34	Touchdown +7
11	PIT	PIT 29	3	5	0:19	End of half
12	NO	NO 35	5	8	1:26	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 15	10	59	4:39	Missed field goal
14	NO	NO 29	7	20	3:50	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 2	11	78	6:22	Field goal +3
16	NO	NO 25	4	5	1:27	Interception
17	PIT	NO 44	9	40	3:38	Touchdown +7
18	NO	NO 25	5	9	0:54	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	NO 34	4	4	2:11	Missed field goal
20	NO	NO 38	3	1	1:10	Interception
21	PIT	PIT 26	10	45	4:23	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	17/27	174	1	2	2	-1.4
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	8	26	3.3	-3.3
Andy Dalton	3	1	0.3	-5.2
Taysom Hill	3	1	0.3	-1.9
Jordan Howard	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Juwan Johnson	5	7	44	1	25%	2.3
Chris Olave	3	5	40	0	18%	1.5
Jarvis Landry	3	6	37	0	21%	-2.0
Adam Trautman	2	3	22	0	11%	0.3
Alvin Kamara	3	4	19	0	14%	-1.8
Rashid Shaheed	1	1	12	0	4%	2.0
Kevin White	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
P.J. Williams	9	2	0.0	0
Kaden Elliss	3	4	1.0	0
Demario Davis	2	5	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	5	2	0.0	0
Alontae Taylor	6	0	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	1	4	0.5	0
Malcolm Roach	3	2	1.0	0
Paulson Adebo	5	0	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	4	0.5	1
Payton Turner	3	1	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	18/30	199	0	0	6	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	20	99	5.0	0	-0.1
Kenny Pickett	8	51	6.4	1	1.1
Jaylen Warren	9	37	4.1	0	-2.1
George Pickens	2	23	11.5	1	2.6
Derek Watt	2	5	2.5	0	0.7
Steven Sims	2	2	1.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	4	5	63	19%	3.5
Jaylen Warren	3	3	40	12%	6.8
Pat Freiermuth	4	7	36	27%	-2.5
George Pickens	3	4	32	15%	2.2
Steven Sims	1	2	15	8%	0.6
Connor Heyward	2	2	9	8%	-0.5
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	4	4%	-0.2
Najee Harris	0	1	0	4%	-0.6
Zach Gentry	0	1	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	4	2	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	5	0	0.0	1	3
Alex Highsmith	2	2	2.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	2	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0.0	1	1
Devin Bush	2	1	0.0	0	0
Arthur Maulet	2	1	0.0	0	1
Tre Norwood	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -1
Closing total: 39.5
NO moneyline: +105
PIT moneyline: -116

Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 30 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NO 6 days · PIT 14 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Mike Tomlin

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.