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polling · 1800s tick · as of 9:31 PM ET · 15 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 10
It turned at Q4 12:22, 3rd and 5, on Damontae Kazee — 10.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 12:22, Steelers +10.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:22 · 3rd and 5
Damontae Kazee
Steelers
(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.73 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 1 chunk play.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Steelers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matthew Wright's 33-yard field goal with 13:47 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Matthew Wright33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+310–136 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 45 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Steelers’s 78 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Saints 1, Steelers 5.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-4.2 ptsright on their number · +2.6 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 45 snaps
Steelers-0.1 ptsright on their number · +3.6 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints65.6%leaned — passed early · +15.6 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 32 early downs
Steelers46.7%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints9.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers7.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 81%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.2%.
Steelers25.0%right on their number · +6.7 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 65%
Tendencies room →Saints20.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers12.9%leaned — sat back · −15.3 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 26%
Tendencies room →Saints15.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers9.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.9%, 15.3 points below their season mean of 28.2% and 1.1 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
18/30, 199 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.6 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · NO
17/27, 174 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-1.4 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Juwan Johnson banked 4.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 19.1 | −2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 199 yd · 8 car, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.4 | +4.4 | 66% | 68% | 25% | 26% | 5/7, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +3.9 | 75% | 95% | 15% | 18% | 2 car, 23 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 32 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Receiving Back | 10.7 | +2.1 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 9 car, 37 yd · 3/3, 40 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | +0.9 | 92% | 95% | 19% | 41% | 4/5, 63 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −3.4 | 60% | 55% | 4% | 11% | 20 car, 99 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.6 | −4.5 | 69% | 90% | 27% | 33% | 4/7, 36 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 7.5 | −1.5 | 79% | 77% | 14% | 2% | 8 car, 26 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −1.6 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 17/27, 174 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 1 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +0.1 | 77% | 87% | 18% | 25% | 3/5, 40 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −1.9 | 79% | 81% | 21% | 22% | 3/6, 37 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.3 | 40% | 35% | 11% | 5% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 2.9 | +0.4 | 20% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.9 | 38% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 2 yd · 1/2, 15 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 26% | 33% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Taysom HillQB | 0.1 | −1.7 | 40% | — | 0% | — | 0/1, 0 yd · 3 car, 1 yd |
| Jordan HowardRB | 0.1 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 66% | 68% | 7% | 16% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Benny SnellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 51% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at NO 15 for -3 yards (97-M.Roach). Penalty on PIT, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q4 14:16 · Steelers · 3rd & 2 at NO 12 · lost 3 · -1.91 EP · −10.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 83 yards from the PIT 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Steelers6Saints0Steelers7Saints0Steelers10Saints3Steelers10Saints9Steelers10Saints10Steelers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Saints10Steelers13Saints10Steelers19Saints10Steelers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/27 | 174 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −1.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 25% | +2.3 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Williams | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 18/30 | 199 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_10_NO_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 30 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +1.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 21% | −2.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 11% | +0.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −1.8 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +2.0 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Payton Turner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.1 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Derek Watt | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 19% | +3.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 12% | +6.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 27% | −2.5 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15% | +2.2 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Zach Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arthur Maulet | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Norwood | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
