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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:18 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 20. Final.
Steelers -1 ✓U 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Saints 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:22, 3rd and 5, on Damontae Kazee — 10.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:22 · 3rd and 5
Damontae Kazee
Steelers
(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).
Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 12:22, Steelers +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matthew WrightSaintsQ3 8:59(8:59) 4-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
10.2pts
Diontae JohnsonSteelersQ3 1:26(1:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson to NO 20 for 36 yards (29-P.Adebo).
9.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.73 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 1 chunk play.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Steelers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Saints159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).
Swing +10.4 for SteelersExpected points +3.15 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:22NO +10% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee (29-L.Wallace) at NO 46. 23-D.Kazee to NO 44 for 2 yards (5-J.Landry).
3rd · 8:59NO +10% win prob(8:59) 4-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
3rd · 1:26PIT +10% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson to NO 20 for 36 yards (29-P.Adebo).
3rd · 8:09PIT +8% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NO 43 for 14 yards (29-L.Wallace).
3rd · 11:06PIT +7% win prob(11:06) (No Huddle) 14-G.Pickens left end pushed ob at NO 21 for 22 yards (26-P.Williams).
4th · 11:34PIT +7% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at NO 16 for 26 yards (55-K.Elliss).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matthew Wright's 33-yard field goal with 13:47 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Steelers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Saints: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.73Saints: −0.73 expected points added per play
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 45 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Steelers’s 78 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Saints 1, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NotePIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.9%, 15.3 points below their season mean of 28.2% and 1.1 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Pickett sacked−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at NO 15 for -3 yards (97-M.Roach). Penalty on PIT, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q4 14:16 · Steelers · 3rd & 2 at NO 12 · lost 3 · -1.91 EP · −10.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 83 yards from the PIT 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0549%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.3877%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.1658%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0675%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
Punt5 plays
Saints0Steelers6
Saints0Steelers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Saints 1
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Saints 20
2nd quarter48 plays
Saints0Steelers10
Field goal3 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 15
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 43
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 18
Saints3Steelers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Steelers 26
Punt13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Saints 37
Saints9Steelers10
Saints10Steelers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Steelers 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 41
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays
No good10 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Saints 10
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 44
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 2 to the Saints 20
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Saints10Steelers13
Field goal3 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 12
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Saints10Steelers19
Saints10Steelers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Saints 1
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
No good4 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 30
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 39
The period ended13 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Saints 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
