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(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.5 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.23 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:48TB +12% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:36SEA +10% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at TB 13 for -4 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by TB-98-A.Nelson at TB 13.
4th · 4:04TB +10% win prob(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White].
1st · 12:00SEA +8% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 18 for -17 yards (9-J.Tryon).
1st · 7:11SEA +7% win prob(7:11) 9-K.Walker right end to TB 41 for no gain (45-D.White). PENALTY on SEA-68-D.Lewis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at TB 41.
4th · 6:31SEA +6% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Barton at TB 46. 57-C.Barton to TB 45 for 1 yard (6-J.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Julio Jones's 31-yard touchdown catch with 13:48 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:48Julio Jones·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+70–7
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Seahawks: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Seahawks: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.35Buccaneers: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Seahawks: −0.52 expected points added per play
+0.02Buccaneers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 51 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 68 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 82.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 72.5% in week 2.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 9.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
TB's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 22.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 9.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
SEA's play-action rate, 15.0%, is past their previous low of 19.6% in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.6%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteTB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 13.1% and 2.2 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:48 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 10 at SEA 31 · gained 31 · +4.23 EP · +12.7% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 88 yards from the TB 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
47%
Yards
702
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0274%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0048%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3829%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 40
No good6 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Seahawks 30
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Buccaneers 39
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Seahawks 43
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks0Buccaneers6
Seahawks0Buccaneers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Seahawks 31
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 35
Seahawks0Buccaneers13
Seahawks0Buccaneers14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Seahawks 1
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 33
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 39
The period ended6 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Seahawks3Buccaneers14
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Buccaneers 22
Intercepted10 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Seahawks 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Buccaneers 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 28
4th quarter45 plays
Seahawks3Buccaneers20
Seahawks3Buccaneers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Seahawks 4
Seahawks9Buccaneers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Buccaneers 21
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 36
Seahawks15Buccaneers21
Seahawks16Buccaneers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 19
The period ended14 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Seahawks 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -2.5
Closing total
45
Seahawks moneyline
+124
Buccaneers moneyline
-138
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allianz Arena
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Todd Bowles
4th · 2:25
TB +6% win prob
(2:25) 29-R.White up the middle to TB 46 for 12 yards (26-R.Neal).
3rd · 6:39SEA +5% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-L.Fournette. 7-L.Fournette pass deep left intended for 12-T.Brady INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at SEA 6. 27-T.Woolen to SEA 6 for no gain (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on TB-12-T.Brady, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 6.
