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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:30 PM ET · 15 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Allianz Arena
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 10
It turned at Q2 13:48, 3rd and 10, on Julio Jones — 12.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 13:48, Buccaneers +12.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:48 · 3rd and 10
Julio Jones
Buccaneers
(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 2 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Julio Jones's 31-yard touchdown catch with 13:48 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 51 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 68 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Buccaneers 4.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 82.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
TB's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 22.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 38.2%, is past their previous low of 43.5% in week 1 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
SEA's sack or hit rate, 3.3%, is past their previous low of 7.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected, −8.7 pts, is past their previous low of −4.6 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate, 15.0%, is past their previous low of 19.6% in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks14.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.0 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 50 snaps
Buccaneers-8.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.9 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 98%
Tendencies room →Seahawks82.1%leaned — passed early · +22.2 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 39 early downs
Buccaneers38.2%leaned — ran early · −25.8 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−1.93× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 47%
Tendencies room →Seahawks15.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.9 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers30.0%off script — faked the run · +16.9 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+2.17× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±23.4 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 42.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 57%
Tendencies room →Seahawks10.0%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers25.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Seahawks3.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.6%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
TB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 13.1% and 2.2 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
23/33, 275 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Passing · TB
22/29, 258 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
15.3 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Marquise Goodwin banked 7.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 275 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 22 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.1 | +3.1 | 89% | 93% | 28% | 25% | 6/8, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | +1.2 | 100% | — | 3% | 6% | 22/29, 258 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, -3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +6.2 | 51% | 77% | 17% | 28% | 3/5, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.2 | −3.0 | 87% | 83% | 24% | 0% | 10 car, 17 yd · 6/8, 55 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +4.6 | 90% | 90% | 15% | 23% | 3/5, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.1 | −2.5 | 90% | 90% | 27% | 38% | 6/9, 71 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +7.6 | 79% | 80% | 6% | 15% | 2/2, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | −2.0 | 29% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd, 1 INT · 14 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 10.5 | −1.8 | 64% | 67% | 0% | — | 22 car, 105 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 10.4 | +0.8 | 73% | 90% | 21% | 23% | 5/6, 54 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +1.4 | 61% | 43% | 10% | 11% | 3/3, 35 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −0.9 | 52% | 54% | 12% | 15% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +1.8 | 42% | 39% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.2 | 19% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 2.3 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.1 | 45% | 50% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.9 | 27% | 27% | 9% | 11% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Penny HartWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaelon DardenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:48 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 10 at SEA 31 · gained 31 · +4.23 EP · +12.7% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 88 yards from the TB 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks0
Buccaneers6Seahawks0Buccaneers7Seahawks0Buccaneers13Seahawks0Buccaneers14Seahawks3Buccaneers14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Seahawks3Buccaneers20Seahawks3Buccaneers21Seahawks9Buccaneers21Seahawks15Buccaneers21Seahawks16Buccaneers21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/33 | 275 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Kenneth Walker | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 27% | +1.1 |
| Kenneth Walker | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quandre Diggs |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/29 | 258 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +15.3 |
| Leonard Fournette | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_10_SEA_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| +1.8 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 15% | +4.5 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 6% | +4.7 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −2.2 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Coby Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Irvin | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 | 28% | +5.9 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 21% | −0.4 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 17% | +4.4 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 10% | +2.4 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | +2.6 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Tom Brady | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 6 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akiem Hicks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Olakunle Fatukasi | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
