2022 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 14, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington CommandersWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -11 upsetO 43 ✓Eagles closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 32–21. Biggest swing: Q4 9:14, WAS +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:14WAS 23 — PHI 21PHI ball · 1st & 10PHI 57%

(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Repla

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:14WAS +24% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis to PHI 34 for no gain (88-D.Goedert). PHI-88-D.Goedert was injured during the play.
Q4 · 12:33WAS +16% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Gardner-Johnson at PHI 7. 23-C.Gardner-Johnson to PHI 7 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
Q4 · 2:49WAS +11% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 17 for -5 yards (90-M.Sweat).
Q4 · 5:58WAS +10% win prob(5:58) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 16-Q.Watkins to WAS 23 for 50 yards (25-B.St-Juste). FUMBLES (25-B.St-Juste), touched at WAS 20, RECOVERED by WAS-22-D.Forrest at WAS 15. 22-D.Forrest pushed ob at WAS 27 for 12 yards (16-Q.Watkins).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:26PHI Touchdown
(12:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — PHI 7
Q1 · 5:03WAS Touchdown
(5:03) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 7
Q1 · 1:33PHI Touchdown
(1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 14
Q2 · 10:04WAS Field goal
(10:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 14
Q2 · 1:44WAS Touchdown
(1:44) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 14
Q2 · 0:02WAS Field goal
(:02) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — PHI 14
Q3 · 5:17WAS Field goal
(5:17) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 23 — PHI 14
Q4 · 15:00PHI Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 23 — PHI 21
Q4 · 7:38WAS Field goal
(7:38) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 26 — PHI 21
Q4 · 0:05WAS Touchdown
(:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 16-Q.Watkins to PHI 15 for 5 yards. Lateral to 6-D.Smith to PHI 5 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by WAS-95-C.Toohill at PHI 1. 95-C.Toohill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: WAS 32 — PHI 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Eagles
Offensive plays	77	47
Total yards	334 (edge)	264
Yards per play	4.3	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	53% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	40%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.24 (edge)
Third downs	12/20	5/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

17/29, 211 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

17/26, 175 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.5 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

26 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

12 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

8/11 for 128 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Quez WatkinsWR

4/4 for 80 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 8	5	-5	1:48	Fumble
2	PHI	WAS 18	4	18	0:51	Touchdown +7
3	WAS	WAS 25	15	75	7:21	Touchdown +7
4	PHI	PHI 22	11	58	3:30	Touchdown +7
5	WAS	WAS 25	13	49	6:30	Field goal +3
6	PHI	PHI 25	5	20	1:17	Interception
7	WAS	WAS 14	17	86	7:04	Touchdown +7
8	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	0:33	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 30	8	30	1:06	Field goal +3
10	PHI	PHI 25	5	7	1:24	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 20	14	71	8:23	Field goal +3
12	PHI	PHI 20	14	80	5:19	Touchdown +7
13	WAS	WAS 25	6	17	2:30	Interception
14	PHI	PHI 7	6	26	3:15	Defensive touchdown
15	WAS	PHI 34	4	-2	1:36	Field goal +3
16	PHI	PHI 25	4	62	1:50	Fumble
17	WAS	WAS 27	4	18	2:17	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 20	4	-3	1:32	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 47	7	-5	1:49	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 10	1	-9	0:05	Defensive touchdown

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	17/29	211	0	1	3	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	26	86	3.3	1	-1.0
Antonio Gibson	14	44	3.1	1	2.5
Curtis Samuel	4	12	3.0	0	0.6
Taylor Heinicke	5	10	2.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	8	11	128	44%	8.8
Curtis Samuel	2	4	28	16%	3.1
Dyami Brown	1	1	15	4%	0.5
Antonio Gibson	3	3	14	12%	-1.3
Jahan Dotson	1	1	14	4%	2.0
Logan Thomas	2	4	12	16%	-1.1
Cam Sims	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jamin Davis	4	4	0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	6	1	0	0
Darrick Forrest	3	3	1	1
Kamren Curl	3	2	0	0
Jon Bostic	2	2	0	0
Bobby McCain	3	1	0	0
Percy Butler	2	0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	1	1	0	0
Terry McLaurin	1	0	0	0
Jeremy Reaves	1	0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	17/26	175	2	1	1	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	12	54	4.5	0	1.1
Jalen Hurts	6	28	4.7	1	2.3
Kenneth Gainwell	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Boston Scott	1	5	5.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quez Watkins	4	4	80	0	16%	-5.2
DeVonta Smith	6	8	39	1	32%	4.3
Dallas Goedert	3	3	23	1	12%	-2.9
Jack Stoll	1	1	11	0	4%	0.8
Zach Pascal	1	2	10	0	8%	-0.1
A.J. Brown	1	4	7	0	16%	-4.1
Kenneth Gainwell	1	2	5	0	8%	-0.5
Miles Sanders	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
T.J. Edwards	4	8	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	3	9	1.0	0	0
Milton Williams	4	4	0.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	4	2	0.0	0	1
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	6	0	0.0	1	2
Fletcher Cox	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	3	3	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	4	1	1.0	0	0
Marlon Tuipulotu	1	3	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	4	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -11
Closing total: 43
WAS moneyline: +405
PHI moneyline: -501

Eagles closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 53 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: WAS 8 days · PHI 11 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Nick Sirianni

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.