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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:30 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 14, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CommandersWashington32
BY 11final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia21
Washington Commanders 32 at Philadelphia Eagles 21. Final.
Eagles -11 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 10
Washington Commanders 32, Eagles 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:14, 1st and 10, on Dallas Goedert — 24.5 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:14 · 1st and 10
Dallas Goedert
Commanders
(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis to PHI 34 for no gain (88-D.Goedert). PHI-88-D.Goedert was injured during the play.
O 43 ✓
Eagles closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 32–21. Biggest swing: Q4 9:14, Commanders +24.5% win probability on one snap.
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chauncey Gardner-JohnsonEaglesQ4 12:33(12:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Gardner-Johnson at PHI 7. 23-C.Gardner-Johnson to PHI 7 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
15.5pts
Jalen HurtsCommandersQ4 2:49(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 17 for -5 yards (90-M.Sweat).
10.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — 2 giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.12 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Commanders163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Repla
Swing −24.5 for EaglesExpected points −4.97 for EaglesThe model had Commanders 11 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:14WAS +24% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis to PHI 34 for no gain (88-D.Goedert). PHI-88-D.Goedert was injured during the play.
4th · 12:33WAS +16% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Gardner-Johnson at PHI 7. 23-C.Gardner-Johnson to PHI 7 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
4th · 2:49WAS +11% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 17 for -5 yards (90-M.Sweat).
4th · 5:58WAS +10% win prob(5:58) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 16-Q.Watkins to WAS 23 for 50 yards (25-B.St-Juste). FUMBLES (25-B.St-Juste), touched at WAS 20, RECOVERED by WAS-22-D.Forrest at WAS 15. 22-D.Forrest pushed ob at WAS 27 for 12 yards (16-Q.Watkins).
3rd · 13:43WAS +9% win prob(13:43) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to WAS 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Robinson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:44 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.12Eagles: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.37Eagles: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Commanders: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.24Eagles: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 77 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Eagles’s 47 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Eagles 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.6% in week 9 against 3.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −15.2 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Eagles12.9%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.6%, 15.2 points below their season mean of 18.8% and 1.6 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 33 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway; 52-J.Davis). FUMBLES (91-J.Ridgeway), RECOVERED by WAS-52-J.Davis at PHI 34. 52-J.Davis to PHI 34 for no gain (88-D.Goedert). PHI-88-D.Goedert was injured during the play.
Q4 9:14 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 31 · gained 2 · -4.97 EP · −20.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 86 yards from the WAS 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
594
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0952%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1759%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.2224%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.2513%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0967%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 28
Commanders0Eagles6
Commanders0Eagles7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 1
Commanders6Eagles7
Commanders7Eagles7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 1
Commanders7Eagles13
Commanders7Eagles14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Commanders 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
2nd quarter51 plays
Commanders10Eagles14
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Eagles 21
Intercepted5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 45
Commanders16Eagles14
Commanders17Eagles14
Touchdown20 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Eagles 1
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 30
Commanders20Eagles14
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Eagles 40
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Commanders23Eagles14
Field goal15 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Eagles 3
The period ended13 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Commanders 18
4th quarter46 plays
Commanders23Eagles20
Commanders23Eagles21
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 43
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Eagles 31
Commanders26Eagles21
Field goal4 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 33
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 37
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 35
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 22
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Eagles 43
Commanders32Eagles21
Touchdown1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -11
Closing total
43
Commanders moneyline
+405
Eagles moneyline
-501
Eagles closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 53 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Commanders 8 days · Eagles 11 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Nick Sirianni
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:25PHI +9% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 2-D.Brown to PHI 40 for 15 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
1st · 13:20WAS +9% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 18 for -10 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-95-M.Tuipulotu at WAS 18.
3rd · 9:32PHI +8% win prob(9:32) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 17 for 41 yards (2-D.Slay).
