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2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina3
BY 10final margin
RavensBaltimore13
Carolina Panthers 3 at Baltimore Ravens 13. Final.
Ravens -13 no coverU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 11
Baltimore Ravens 13, Panthers 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:31, 4th and 14 — 13.0 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:31 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
15.2 mph wind
Ravens closed -13, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 13–3. Biggest swing: Q1 5:31, Ravens +13.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bravvion RoyPanthersQ2 9:26(9:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 93-B.Roy at CAR 32. 93-B.Roy to CAR 35 for 3 yards (79-R.Stanley).
10.9pts
Shi SmithRavensQ4 8:22(8:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 12-S.Smith to CAR 29 for 4 yards (24-M.Peters). FUMBLES (24-M.Peters), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at CAR 31.
12.5pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.41 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Panthers158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
Swing +13.0 for RavensExpected points +1.58 for RavensThe model had Panthers 25 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:31BAL +13% win prob(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
4th · 8:22CAR +13% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 12-S.Smith to CAR 29 for 4 yards (24-M.Peters). FUMBLES (24-M.Peters), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at CAR 31.
2nd · 9:26CAR +11% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 93-B.Roy at CAR 32. 93-B.Roy to CAR 35 for 3 yards (79-R.Stanley).
1st · 14:06BAL +8% win prob(14:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 10-D.Robinson to CAR 45 for 23 yards (21-J.Chinn).
1st · 6:51CAR +8% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake left end to BAL 15 for -4 yards (55-C.Littleton).
4th · 13:33BAL +8% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard to BAL 44 for 9 yards (49-F.Luvu).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 37-yard field goal with 8:31 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd0:05Justin Tucker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+30–3
3rd8:11Eddy Pineiro·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+33–3
4th8:31Justin Tucker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+33–6
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Panthers: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.12Ravens: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.44Panthers: −0.44 expected points added per play
−0.18Ravens: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Panthers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 54 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Ravens’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Ravens 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 20.4% in week 10 against 65.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −23.5 pts in week 10 against +1.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.6% in week 10 against 8.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens17.9%
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 38.5%, 11.9 points above their season mean of 26.5% and 1.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%57 snaps
70Brady ChristensenT · Every snap100%57 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%57 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%57 snaps
56Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%57 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Full-time98%56 snaps
88Terrace MarshallWR · Full-time93%53 snaps
12Shi SmithWR · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Rotational40%23 snaps
33D'Onta ForemanRB · Rotational39%22 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational37%21 snaps
15Laviska ShenaultWR · Rotational28%16 snaps
84Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational26%15 snaps
20Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational19%11 snaps
75Cameron ErvingT · Situational4%2 snaps
64Cade MaysG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Matt IoannidisDTMyles HartsfieldFSPhillip WalkerQBJuston BurrisSSLarnel ColemanTGiovanni RicciTERashard HigginsWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 88-T.Marshall to BAL 29 for 24 yards (24-M.Peters) [14-K.Hamilton].
Q3 10:37 · Panthers · 3rd & 9 at CAR 47 · gained 24 · +3.03 EP · +15.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 76 yards from the BAL 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
38%
Yards
513
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.4570%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.1342%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.5527%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2577%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10-0.0380%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.3080%
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Panthers 43
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 19
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Panthers 45
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 23
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Panthers 29
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Ravens 44
Panthers0Ravens3
Field goal19 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Panthers 14
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 35
Drive ended4 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 9
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Panthers3Ravens3
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Ravens 14
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Panthers 19
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 6 to the Panthers 49
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Panthers3Ravens6
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Panthers 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
Panthers3Ravens12
Panthers3Ravens13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Panthers 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 32
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 41
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 38
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Ravens 31
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -13
Closing total
42
Panthers moneyline
+503
Ravens moneyline
-647
Ravens closed -13, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 16 — under by 26.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Panthers 10 days · Ravens 13 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs John Harbaugh
NoteWind at 15.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 6:09CAR +6% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 43-J.Hill to BAL 13 for -2 yards (90-A.Barno).
3rd · 9:39BAL +6% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 82-T.Tremble. PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at BAL 27 - No Play.
