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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q1 5:31, 4th and 14 — 13.0 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 13–3. Biggest swing: Q1 5:31, Ravens +13.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:31 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Tucker's 37-yard field goal with 8:31 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Justin Tucker37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+33–64 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 54 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Ravens’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Ravens 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 20.4% in week 10 against 65.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −23.5 pts in week 10 against +1.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.6% in week 10 against 8.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +10.2 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 54 snaps
Ravens-4.1 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Panthers65.9%inside their normal wobble · +16.2 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 41 early downs
Ravens54.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Panthers23.1%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens16.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.5%.
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Panthers37.8%inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens38.5%leaned — sent pressure · +11.9 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers8.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens17.9%inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
BAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 38.5%, 11.9 points above their season mean of 26.5% and 1.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
24/33, 209 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.5 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
21/33, 196 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-14.3 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
Receiving · BAL
9/9 for 128 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added
Receiving · CAR
3/6 for 76 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Demarcus Robinson banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +7.3 | 78% | 81% | 28% | 66% | 9/9, 128 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 15.5 | −7.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 209 yd, 1 INT · 11 car, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −0.6 | 93% | 97% | 25% | 45% | 6/8, 63 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | +2.3 | 93% | 92% | 19% | 70% | 3/6, 76 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB · Committee Back | 7.3 | −4.5 | 51% | 43% | 13% | 0% | 10 car, 46 yd · 2/4, 7 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 6.8 | −1.7 | 41% | 43% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 30 yd · 3/3, 8 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −0.3 | 54% | 46% | 13% | 5% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −2.0 | 98% | 97% | 16% | 20% | 3/5, 24 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 5.0 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/33, 196 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.4 | 28% | 26% | 13% | 0% | 4/4, 7 yd |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −1.9 | 60% | 69% | 16% | 12% | 4/5, 26 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 4.5 | −1.9 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 4 car, 0 yd · 2/3, 25 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 3.4 | −0.3 | 19% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.4 | −3.7 | 39% | 28% | 3% | 0% | 11 car, 24 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.5 | 84% | 95% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 33% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −4.3 | 32% | 43% | 9% | 11% | 1/3, 1 yd |
| Mike DavisRB | 0.7 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | 55% | 35% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 25% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 33% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 88-T.Marshall to BAL 29 for 24 yards (24-M.Peters) [14-K.Hamilton].
Q3 10:37 · Panthers · 3rd & 9 at CAR 47 · gained 24 · +3.03 EP · +15.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 76 yards from the BAL 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers0
Ravens3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers3Ravens3Panthers3Ravens6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Panthers3Ravens12Panthers3Ravens13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/33 | 196 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −14.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall | 3 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 19% | +4.2 |
| Shi Smith | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/33 | 209 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_CAR_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -13, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 16 — under by 26.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| −5.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 16% | −1.5 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 13% | −0.6 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −2.7 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −2.4 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Franklin | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 9 | 9 | 128 | 0 | 28% | +9.2 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 25% | −0.9 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| James Proche | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.2 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 7 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brent Urban | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyus Bowser | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
