2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -13 no coverU 42 ✓Ravens closed -13, won by 10 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 13–3. Biggest swing: Q1 5:31, BAL +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:31CAR 0 — BAL 0BAL ball · 4th & 14BAL 70%

(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:31BAL +13% win prob(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
Q4 · 8:22CAR +13% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 12-S.Smith to CAR 29 for 4 yards (24-M.Peters). FUMBLES (24-M.Peters), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at CAR 31.
Q2 · 9:26CAR +11% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 93-B.Roy at CAR 32. 93-B.Roy to CAR 35 for 3 yards (79-R.Stanley).
Q1 · 14:06BAL +8% win prob(14:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 10-D.Robinson to CAR 45 for 23 yards (21-J.Chinn).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 0:05BAL Field goal
(:05) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — BAL 3
Q3 · 8:11CAR Field goal
(8:11) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — BAL 3
Q4 · 8:31BAL Field goal
(8:31) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — BAL 6
Q4 · 7:20BAL Touchdown
(7:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — BAL 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Ravens
Offensive plays	54	65
Total yards	205	309 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	30%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

24/33, 209 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.5 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

21/33, 196 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-14.3 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Kenyan DrakeRB

10 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 31 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Demarcus RobinsonWR

9/9 for 128 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Terrace MarshallWR

3/6 for 76 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	7	37	2:30	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 20	8	19	5:00	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 17	4	-4	2:12	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 25	4	5	1:33	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 29	7	26	3:53	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 17	4	6	2:17	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 49	6	22	3:16	Interception
8	CAR	CAR 35	9	33	5:41	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 10	15	76	3:38	Field goal +3
10	CAR	CAR 31	5	4	1:19	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 6	4	1	2:19	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 46	9	28	3:15	Field goal +3
13	BAL	BAL 25	10	49	4:14	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 6	7	33	3:26	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 14	12	72	7:00	Field goal +3
16	CAR	CAR 25	3	4	0:13	Fumble
17	BAL	CAR 31	3	30	0:58	Touchdown +7
18	CAR	CAR 40	5	-5	1:50	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	CAR 35	5	5	0:55	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 13	4	23	1:03	Interception
21	BAL	CAR 41	4	-5	1:36	Punt
22	CAR	CAR 19	6	55	1:09	Interception
23	BAL	BAL 44	1	0	0:43	End of game

4 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 76 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/33	196	0	2	4	-14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	11	24	2.2	-3.0
Baker Mayfield	2	12	6.0	1.3
Chuba Hubbard	4	0	0.0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terrace Marshall	3	6	76	19%	4.2
Shi Smith	4	5	26	16%	-5.9
Chuba Hubbard	2	3	25	10%	-0.0
D.J. Moore	3	5	24	16%	-1.5
Ian Thomas	3	4	24	13%	-0.6
Raheem Blackshear	2	3	14	10%	-2.7
Laviska Shenault Jr.	4	4	7	13%	-2.4
D'Onta Foreman	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Frankie Luvu	6	4	1.0
C.J. Henderson	9	0	0.0
Jeremy Chinn	7	2	0.0
Shaq Thompson	2	4	0.0
Brian Burns	2	3	1.0
Xavier Woods	4	1	0.0
Sam Franklin	4	0	0.0
Yetur Gross-Matos	2	1	1.0
Jaycee Horn	3	0	0.0
Brandon Smith	2	1	0.0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	24/33	209	0	1	3	-5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	10	46	4.6	0	-1.4
Lamar Jackson	11	31	2.8	1	-0.4
Justice Hill	7	30	4.3	0	-0.9
Devin Duvernay	1	4	4.0	0	0.4
Patrick Ricard	1	4	4.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demarcus Robinson	9	9	128	28%	9.2
Mark Andrews	6	8	63	25%	-0.9
Justice Hill	3	3	8	9%	-1.3
Kenyan Drake	2	4	7	13%	-1.9
Devin Duvernay	1	1	3	3%	-0.2
Josh Oliver	1	1	2	3%	-0.6
Isaiah Likely	1	3	1	9%	-1.4
James Proche	0	2	0	6%	-2.2
Mike Davis	1	1	-3	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	7	3	0.5	0	0
Roquan Smith	6	1	1.0	0	0
Marcus Peters	4	1	0.0	0	0
Broderick Washington	1	2	0.0	0	1
Brandon Stephens	2	0	0.0	0	1
Brent Urban	1	1	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	0	2	0.0	1	1
Tyus Bowser	1	1	0.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -13
Closing total: 42
CAR moneyline: +503
BAL moneyline: -647

Ravens closed -13, won by 10 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 16 — under by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CAR 10 days · BAL 13 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs John Harbaugh