2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

CIN -3.5 ✓O 39 ✓27°FBengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals 37–30. Biggest swing: Q3 5:27, CIN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:27CIN 24 — PIT 20CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 76%

(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at CIN 21. 90-T.Watt to CIN 21 for no gain (71-L.Collins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:27CIN +16% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at CIN 21. 90-T.Watt to CIN 21 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
Q4 · 14:20PIT +13% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens to CIN 39 for 33 yards (20-E.Apple).
Q2 · 13:04PIT +13% win prob(13:04) 22-N.Harris left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:52PIT +13% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:59CIN Field goal
(8:59) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — PIT 0
Q1 · 4:41PIT Field goal
(4:41) 4-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — PIT 3
Q1 · 0:48CIN Touchdown
(:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — PIT 3
Q2 · 13:04PIT Touchdown
(13:04) 22-N.Harris left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — PIT 10
Q2 · 6:46CIN Touchdown
(6:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 17 — PIT 10
Q2 · 1:52PIT Touchdown
(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 17 — PIT 17
Q2 · 0:03PIT Field goal
(:03) 4-M.Wright 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CIN 17 — PIT 20
Q3 · 7:07CIN Touchdown
(7:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 16-T.Irwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 24 — PIT 20
Q3 · 4:32PIT Field goal
(4:32) 4-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CIN 24 — PIT 23
Q3 · 0:36CIN Field goal
(:36) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 27 — PIT 23
Q4 · 4:35CIN Touchdown
(4:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 34 — PIT 23
Q4 · 3:22CIN Field goal
(3:22) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 37 — PIT 23
Q4 · 0:47PIT Touchdown
(:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 37 — PIT 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Steelers
Offensive plays	63	68
Total yards	410 (edge)	351
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	48% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	67%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

24/39, 355 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

12.7 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

25/42, 265 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.2 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

20 att, 90 yds, 2 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

11 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

9/13 for 148 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

4/6 for 83 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 38	5	7	2:03	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 5	4	7	1:54	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 43	5	30	2:09	Field goal +3
4	PIT	PIT 35	10	41	4:17	Field goal +3
5	CIN	CIN 21	8	64	3:58	Touchdown +7
6	PIT	PIT 44	10	56	2:41	Touchdown +7
7	CIN	CIN 8	12	92	6:20	Touchdown +7
8	PIT	PIT 35	12	59	4:51	Touchdown +7
9	CIN	CIN 24	7	29	1:16	Interception
10	PIT	PIT 44	5	49	0:31	Field goal +3
11	PIT	PIT 25	5	1	1:33	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 30	5	10	1:43	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 9	4	6	1:37	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 41	8	59	3:05	Touchdown +7
15	PIT	PIT 24	5	6	1:35	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 23	1	0	0:04	Interception
17	PIT	CIN 21	4	6	0:55	Field goal +3
18	CIN	CIN 42	10	22	3:57	Field goal +3
19	PIT	PIT 22	8	27	3:00	Punt
20	CIN	CIN 10	4	2	0:56	Punt
21	PIT	CIN 47	5	20	2:02	Punt
22	CIN	CIN 7	9	93	5:03	Touchdown +7
23	PIT	PIT 27	5	1	0:55	Turnover on downs
24	CIN	PIT 28	4	2	0:17	Field goal +3
25	PIT	PIT 28	11	72	2:33	Touchdown +7
26	CIN	PIT 38	3	0	0:45	End of game

13 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 93 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	24/39	355	4	2	2	12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Samaje Perine	11	30	2.7	-1.4
Joe Mixon	7	20	2.9	-1.5
Trayveon Williams	2	7	3.5	-0.1
Joe Burrow	4	5	1.3	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	9	13	148	0	35%	7.7
Samaje Perine	4	4	52	3	11%	8.5
Joe Mixon	3	3	42	0	8%	4.1
Trenton Irwin	3	4	42	1	11%	3.0
Tyler Boyd	2	7	42	0	19%	-4.3
Hayden Hurst	2	3	28	0	8%	1.5
Trent Taylor	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.4
Trayveon Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Mike Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cam Taylor-Britt	9	3	0.0	0
Logan Wilson	5	3	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	5	2	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	2	4	0.0	0
Tre Flowers	3	3	0.0	0
Trayveon Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	2	0.0	0
Trey Hendrickson	3	1	2.0	1
Eli Apple	1	2	0.0	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	2	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	25/42	265	1	0	2	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	20	90	4.5	2	-0.5
Kenny Pickett	2	14	7.0	0	0.9
Diontae Johnson	1	1	1.0	0	0.3
Steven Sims	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	4	6	83	1	16%	7.0
Pat Freiermuth	8	12	79	0	32%	-0.9
Gunner Olszewski	2	3	39	0	8%	1.8
Najee Harris	4	6	26	0	16%	-1.4
Diontae Johnson	4	5	21	0	13%	-2.0
Jaylen Warren	1	1	9	0	3%	1.8
Zach Gentry	2	3	8	0	8%	-1.3
Steven Sims	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Myles Jack	4	4	0.0	0	1
Arthur Maulet	6	1	0.0	0	0
Robert Spillane	3	3	0.0	0	1
Devin Bush	1	5	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	3	1.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	4	0.5	1	2
Levi Wallace	3	1	0.0	1	2
Marcus Allen	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	3	0	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 39
CIN moneyline: -182
PIT moneyline: +163

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 39; the game landed 67 — over by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 27°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CIN 14 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.