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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 37 at Pittsburgh Steelers 30. Final.
Bengals -3.5 ✓O 39 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 11
Cincinnati Bengals 37, Steelers 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:27, 1st and 10, on T.J. Watt — 15.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:27 · 1st and 10
T.J. Watt
Steelers
(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at CIN 21. 90-T.Watt to CIN 21 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
29°F
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Cincinnati Bengals 37–30. Biggest swing: Q3 5:27, Steelers +15.7% win probability on one snap.
15.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Najee HarrisSteelersQ2 13:04(13:04) 22-N.Harris left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.8pts
George PickensSteelersQ4 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens to CIN 39 for 33 yards (20-E.Apple).
13.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bengals182 of 197 plays carry both curves
(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at CIN 21. 90-T.Watt to CIN 21 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
Swing +15.7 for SteelersExpected points +5.38 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 10 points higher than the market did.play 123
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:27CIN +16% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at CIN 21. 90-T.Watt to CIN 21 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
4th · 14:20PIT +13% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens to CIN 39 for 33 yards (20-E.Apple).
2nd · 13:04PIT +13% win prob(13:04) 22-N.Harris left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:52PIT +13% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard].
1st · 0:48PIT +10% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:12CIN +8% win prob(13:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at PIT 49 for -10 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
3rd · 8:15
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trenton Irwin's 1-yard touchdown catch with 7:07 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:59Evan McPherson·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+33–0
1st4:41Matthew Wright·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–3
1st0:48Samaje Perine·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+710–3
Bengals ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Bengals: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.04Steelers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Bengals: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.05Steelers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Bengals: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 63 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 68 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Steelers 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Steelers14.3%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 7.9 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.1 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at CIN 21. 90-T.Watt to CIN 21 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
Q3 5:27 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 23 · gained nothing · -5.38 EP · −20.5% win probability
180 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 93 yards from the CIN 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.2275%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0471%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1756%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2729%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.380%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 42
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Steelers 12
Bengals3Steelers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Steelers 27
Bengals3Steelers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Bengals 24
Bengals9Steelers3
Bengals10Steelers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Steelers 29
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Bengals10Steelers9
Bengals10Steelers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Bengals 19
Bengals16Steelers10
Bengals17Steelers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Steelers 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bengals17Steelers16
Bengals17Steelers17
Touchdown18 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Bengals 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Steelers 47
Bengals17Steelers20
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Bengals 12
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 46
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 15
Bengals23Steelers20
Bengals24Steelers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Bengals24Steelers23
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 15
Bengals27Steelers23
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Steelers 33
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Bengals 39
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Bengals 34
Bengals33Steelers23
Bengals34Steelers23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Steelers 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 28
Bengals37Steelers23
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 26
Bengals37Steelers29
Bengals37Steelers30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Bengals 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
