For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Browns175 of 188 plays carry both curves
(8:21) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 48, RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at BUF 48.
Swing +14.2 for BillsExpected points +5.52 for BillsThe model had Browns 17 points higher than the market did.play 50
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:21CLE +14% win prob(8:21) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 48, RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at BUF 48.
2nd · 0:18BUF +10% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:08BUF +9% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:29CLE +8% win prob(5:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BUF 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines pushed ob at CLE 32 for 28 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).
2nd · 3:32BUF +8% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at BUF 45 for 24 yards (30-D.Jackson).
3rd · 5:57CLE +8% win prob(5:57) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to BUF 27 for no gain (55-C.Basham; 30-D.Jackson).
2nd · 12:35
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:18 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Browns: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.12Bills: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Browns: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.24Bills: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.70Browns: −0.70 expected points added per play
−0.00Bills: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 67 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 62 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Bills 5.
NoteBrowns outgained Bills 397-358 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 42.0%, is past their previous low of 52.2% in week 8 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 10.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, −6.3 pts, is past their previous low of +4.4 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills11.1%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.0%, 18.6 points below their season mean of 60.6% and 1.9 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:18 · Bills · 2nd & goal at CLE 5 · gained 5 · +2.26 EP · +14.5% win probability
173 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 78 yards from the BUF 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
48%
Yards
753
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.2365%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1264%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.1333%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.7157%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0720%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Browns6Bills0
Browns7Bills0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 22
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 42
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 16
Browns7Bills3
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Bills 20
2nd quarter58 plays
Browns10Bills3
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 34
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Bills 47
Browns10Bills6
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Browns 14
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 45
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Browns10Bills12
Browns10Bills13
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Browns 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Browns10Bills16
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Browns 26
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 27
Browns10Bills22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Browns 5
No good9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 16
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 37
4th quarter57 plays
Browns10Bills25
Field goal5 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 31
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Browns10Bills28
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Browns 8
Browns16Bills28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 7
Browns16Bills31
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 16
Browns22Bills31
Browns23Bills31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bills 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
