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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q1 13:52, 3rd and 3, on Kirk Cousins — 15.2 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:52 · 3rd and 3
Kirk Cousins
Cowboys
(13:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 25 for -7 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], touched at MIN 27, RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at MIN 27.
Dallas Cowboys 40–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:52, Cowboys +15.2% win probability on one snap.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 12 of 17 on third down, against Vikings at 1 of 11 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(13:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 25 for -7 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], touched at MIN 27, RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at MIN 27.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ezekiel Elliott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:31 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryVikings
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 70 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Vikings’s 54 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Vikings 1.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate, 35.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 6.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
DAL's blitz rate sent, 10.8%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 6 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-3.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.7 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 70 snaps
Vikings-4.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.8 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →Cowboys45.3%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 49.2%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 53 early downs
Vikings62.8%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 56%
Tendencies room →Cowboys15.6%inside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings18.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.3%.
Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Cowboys10.8%leaned — sat back · −13.7 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings15.6%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cowboys35.1%off script — got home · +18.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+2.14× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings3.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
DAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.1%, 18.4 points above their season mean of 16.8% and 2.1 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
22/25, 276 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
18.4 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
12/23, 105 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-18.3 expected points added · -10.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tony Pollard banked 13.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 36.9 | +13.0 | 54% | 59% | 20% | 4% | 15 car, 80 yd · 6/6, 109 yd, 2 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +3.8 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 22/25, 276 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 16 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 17.7 | +1.7 | 29% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 15 car, 42 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 5 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | −0.1 | 65% | 66% | 17% | 19% | 5/5, 45 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | −10.6 | 77% | 78% | 32% | 23% | 5/9, 34 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.2 | +0.1 | 60% | 57% | 4% | 1% | 11 car, 72 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −0.2 | 63% | 63% | 13% | 26% | 3/4, 41 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −2.9 | 79% | 81% | 18% | 30% | 3/5, 33 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +1.9 | 75% | 69% | 7% | 26% | 2/2, 42 yd |
| Malik DavisRB · Receiving Back | 5.5 | −2.3 | 18% | 19% | 10% | 0% | 7 car, 13 yd · 2/3, 22 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −7.0 | 64% | 66% | 17% | 22% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | 0.0 | 77% | 78% | 11% | 14% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.8 | 74% | 78% | 11% | 11% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.3 | 50% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −1.5 | 21% | 19% | 11% | 9% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.5 | 21% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 2.2 | −9.4 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 12/23, 105 yd |
| Nick MullensQB | 2.2 | +0.3 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 5/7, 54 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.1 | 18% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 1.8 | −0.5 | 28% | 35% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 1.6 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cooper RushQB | 1.2 | −0.5 | 11% | — | 0% | — | 4/5, 31 yd |
| Peyton HendershotTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −0.9 | 35% | 28% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -2 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 25 for -7 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], touched at MIN 27, RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at MIN 27.
Q1 13:52 · Vikings · 3rd & 3 at MIN 32 · lost 5 · -5.70 EP · −15.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Cowboys3
Vikings0Cowboys3Vikings3Cowboys9Vikings3Cowboys10Vikings3Cowboys13Vikings3Cowboys19Vikings3Cowboys20Vikings3Cowboys23Vikings3Cowboys29Vikings3Cowboys30Vikings3Cowboys36Vikings3Cowboys37Vikings3Cowboys40Vikings3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/25 | 276 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +18.4 |
| Cooper Rush | 4/5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Dak Prescott |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 109 | 2 | 20% | +10.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 17% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Parsons | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Neville Gallimore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabril Cox |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 7 | −18.3 |
| Nick Mullens | 5/7 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.2 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_DAL_MIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 37.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| Malik Davis | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 7% | +4.2 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | +3.6 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +1.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 17% | −1.5 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Sam Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daron Bland | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 32% | −4.4 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 18% | +0.9 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 11% | +2.2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +1.0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.8 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn Bynum | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Booth | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danielle Hunter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
