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Kansas City Chiefs 30 at Los Angeles Chargers 27. Final.
Chiefs -5.5 no coverO 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Chargers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:53, 3rd and 18, on Keenan Allen — 26.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:53 · 3rd and 18
Keenan Allen
Chargers
(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
Dome
Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:53, Chargers +26.3% win probability on one snap.
26.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Travis KelceChiefsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.2pts
Travis KelceChiefsQ4 0:37(:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.09 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Chiefs162 of 174 plays carry both curves
(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
Swing +26.3 for ChargersExpected points +4.49 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 9 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:53LAC +26% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
4th · 0:37LAC +25% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00LAC +22% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:50LAC +20% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:57KC +20% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon to LAC 43 for -3 yards (42-T.Reeder). FUMBLES (42-T.Reeder), touched at LAC 38, RECOVERED by LAC-32-A.Gilman at LAC 36.
1st · 1:22LAC +13% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LAC 39 for 34 yards (23-B.Callahan).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 17-yard touchdown catch with 0:37 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:58Harrison Butker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–0
4th0:37Travis Kelce·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+730–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs5–2Chargers
486Total yards365
8.0Yards per play5.6
51%Success rate54%
50%Third-down rate57%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays4
22First downs22
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Chiefs: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Chiefs: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.11Chargers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chargers’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Chargers 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 27.0%, is past their previous high of 23.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 10.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.2 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, −0.4 pts, is past their previous low of +9.6 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 16.3% in week 10 against 40.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers15.8%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.0%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.7 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Andrew WylieG · Every snap100%65 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%65 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%65 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Full-time88%57 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Rotational42%27 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Rotational40%26 snaps
88Joe FortsonTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
19Kadarius ToneyWR · Situational22%14 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Situational8%5 snaps
85Marcus KempWR · Situational6%4 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational3%2 snaps
14Cornell PowellWR · Situational2%1 snap
73Nick AllegrettiG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Chris LammonsCBJoshua KaindohDEMalik HerringDEShane BuecheleQBRonald JonesRBDarian KinnardTJuJu Smith-SchusterWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+31% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
Q4 3:53 · Chargers · 3rd & 18 at LAC 38 · gained 46 · +4.49 EP · +31.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
47%
Yards
850
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0662%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2365%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0956%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.6846%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0236%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1750%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Chiefs3Chargers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 15
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Chiefs3Chargers6
Chiefs3Chargers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to midfield
Chiefs6Chargers7
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 34
Chiefs6Chargers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 34
2nd quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Chiefs12Chargers10
Chiefs13Chargers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 4
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs13Chargers16
Chiefs13Chargers17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 11
Chiefs13Chargers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chiefs 2
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 36
Chiefs16Chargers20
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chargers 10
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chargers 32
4th quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs22Chargers20
Chiefs23Chargers20
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 43
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chargers 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs23Chargers26
Chiefs23Chargers27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Chiefs 4
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chiefs29Chargers27
Chiefs30Chargers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 17
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -5.5
Closing total
52.5
Chiefs moneyline
-231
Chargers moneyline
+203
Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 57 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Brandon Staley
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 10:18
KC +13% win prob
(10:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to KC 32 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), touched at KC 31, RECOVERED by KC-55-F.Clark at KC 22.
4th · 0:46LAC +12% win prob(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to LAC 17 for 16 yards (22-J.Woods).
