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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q4 3:53, 3rd and 18, on Keenan Allen — 26.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:53, Chargers +26.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:53 · 3rd and 18
Keenan Allen
Chargers
(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
26.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.09 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Travis Kelce's 17-yard touchdown catch with 0:37 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+316–20Travis Kelce17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+730–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chargers’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Chargers 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate, 27.0%, is past their previous high of 23.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.2 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected, −0.4 pts, is past their previous low of +9.6 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 16.3% in week 10 against 40.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-0.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.1 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 61 snaps
Chargers0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 93%
Tendencies room →Chiefs56.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 51 early downs
Chargers56.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 49%
Tendencies room →Chiefs28.9%leaned — faked the run · +11.3 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chargers40.5%leaned — faked the run · +13.9 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs0.0%inside their normal wobble · −19.2 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±30.1 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −30.4 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±18.2 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Chiefs24.3%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers26.3%right on their number · −5.0 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 33%
Tendencies room →Chiefs27.0%leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers15.8%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
KC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.0%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.7 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
20/34, 329 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
18.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
23/30, 280 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.7 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 15.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 35.5 | +15.5 | 78% | 82% | 32% | 18% | 6/10, 115 yd, 3 TD |
| Josh PalmerWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.6 | +7.2 | 92% | 95% | 34% | 48% | 8/10, 106 yd, 2 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 27.5 | +8.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/34, 329 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 23 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 19.7 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 3% | 0% | 23/30, 280 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 17 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.0 | −1.2 | 69% | 59% | 7% | 2% | 19 car, 83 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.4 | −2.6 | 68% | 73% | 28% | 42% | 5/8, 94 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | +0.7 | 42% | 42% | 19% | 21% | 5/6, 63 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | +2.8 | 40% | 29% | 0% | — | 15 car, 107 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +0.4 | 88% | 97% | 13% | 26% | 3/4, 67 yd |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 7.1 | +3.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.2 | 82% | 89% | 10% | 8% | 3/3, 33 yd |
| Isaiah SpillerRB | 4.2 | −1.0 | 25% | 30% | 7% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.3 | 60% | 53% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −4.1 | 71% | 76% | 13% | 19% | 1/4, 18 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 29% | 38% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 1.4 | −3.6 | 52% | 63% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 0.9 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zander HorvathRB | 0.3 | −1.1 | 12% | 8% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Sony MichelRB | 0.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 22% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Michael BandyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 12% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
Q4 3:53 · Chargers · 3rd & 18 at LAC 38 · gained 46 · +4.49 EP · +31.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs3
Chargers0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Chiefs3Chargers6Chiefs3Chargers7Chiefs6Chargers7Chiefs6Chargers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Chiefs12Chargers10Chiefs13Chargers10Chiefs13Chargers16Chiefs13Chargers17Chiefs13Chargers20Chiefs16Chargers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Chiefs22Chargers20Chiefs23Chargers20How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs23Chargers26Chiefs23Chargers27How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs29Chargers27Chiefs30Chargers27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/34 | 329 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +18.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 107 | 7.1 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 115 | 3 | 32% | +7.7 |
| Justin Watson | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Willie Gay | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/30 | 280 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_KC_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 57 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 23 |
| 5.8 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| +3.9 |
| Skyy Moore | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 19% | +7.0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 6% | +5.4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | −0.6 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.9 |
| Kadarius Toney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Michael Danna | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 8 | 10 | 106 | 2 | 34% | +7.3 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 94 | 0 | 28% | −2.5 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Michael Bandy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrek Tuszka | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Fox | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Reeder | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Gaziano | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breiden Fehoko | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
