2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

KC -5.5 no coverO 52.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:53, LAC +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:53KC 23 — LAC 20LAC ball · 3rd & 18KC 79%

(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:53LAC +26% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to KC 16 for 46 yards (23-J.Williams).
Q4 · 0:37LAC +25% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 15:00LAC +22% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:50LAC +20% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:58KC Field goal
(10:58) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 3 — LAC 0
Q1 · 9:42LAC Touchdown
(9:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 3 — LAC 7
Q1 · 6:03KC Field goal
(6:03) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 6 — LAC 7
Q1 · 2:39LAC Field goal
(2:39) 15-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 6 — LAC 10
Q2 · 14:18KC Touchdown
(14:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — LAC 10
Q2 · 3:35LAC Touchdown
(3:35) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-32-N.Bolton, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — LAC 17
Q2 · 0:17LAC Field goal
(:17) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 13 — LAC 20
Q3 · 6:25KC Field goal
(6:25) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 16 — LAC 20
Q4 · 15:00KC Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 23 — LAC 20
Q4 · 1:50LAC Touchdown
(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 23 — LAC 27
Q4 · 0:37KC Touchdown
(:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 30 — LAC 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Chargers
Offensive plays	61	65
Total yards	486 (edge)	365
Yards per play	8.0 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	51%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	5/10	8/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22	22
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/34, 329 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

23/30, 280 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.7 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

15 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

19 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/10 for 115 yds, 3 TD

32% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

8/10 for 106 yds, 2 TD

34% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	12	60	4:06	Field goal +3
2	LAC	LAC 25	5	75	1:21	Touchdown +7
3	KC	KC 25	8	41	3:35	Field goal +3
4	LAC	LAC 25	10	47	3:23	Field goal +3
5	KC	KC 25	9	99	3:22	Touchdown +7
6	LAC	LAC 33	7	5	2:43	Punt
7	KC	KC 21	4	7	0:56	Punt
8	LAC	LAC 30	14	70	7:03	Touchdown +7
9	KC	KC 6	5	5	0:50	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 39	9	43	2:27	Field goal +3
11	KC	KC 37	3	29	0:14	End of half
12	LAC	LAC 11	7	14	3:48	Punt
13	KC	KC 33	9	51	4:50	Field goal +3
14	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	1:37	Punt
15	KC	KC 14	11	86	4:55	Touchdown +7
16	LAC	LAC 25	9	43	4:41	Fumble
17	KC	KC 22	6	38	3:22	Fumble
18	LAC	LAC 36	11	64	5:01	Touchdown +7
19	KC	KC 25	8	70	1:15	Touchdown +7
20	LAC	LAC 25	3	-5	0:15	Interception
21	KC	LAC 42	1	0	0:16	End of game

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 99 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	20/34	329	3	0	1	18.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	15	107	7.1	1.0
Jerick McKinnon	6	24	4.0	-0.3
Patrick Mahomes	4	23	5.8	-1.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	9	4.5	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	10	115	3	32%	7.7
Justin Watson	3	4	67	0	13%	3.9
Skyy Moore	5	6	63	0	19%	7.0
Joseph Fortson	2	2	51	0	6%	5.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	4	18	0	13%	-0.6
Noah Gray	2	3	15	0	10%	-0.4
Jerick McKinnon	1	1	0	0	3%	-4.9
Kadarius Toney	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	8	4	0.0	1	1
Willie Gay	4	4	1.0	0	0
Joshua Williams	4	2	0.0	0	0
Trent McDuffie	2	3	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	4	0	2.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	0	0.0	0	2
Michael Danna	2	1	2.0	0	0
Bryan Cook	3	0	0.0	0	0
Khalen Saunders	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylen Watson	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	23/30	280	2	1	5	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	19	83	4.4	1	0.1
Justin Herbert	5	17	3.4	0	4.0
Isaiah Spiller	4	11	2.8	0	-1.7
Zander Horvath	1	3	3.0	0	1.1
Sony Michel	1	1	1.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Palmer	8	10	106	2	34%	7.3
Keenan Allen	5	8	94	0	28%	-2.5
DeAndre Carter	3	3	33	0	10%	2.2
Austin Ekeler	2	2	17	0	7%	0.6
Mike Williams	1	1	15	0	3%	1.5
Isaiah Spiller	2	2	11	0	7%	0.1
Stone Smartt	1	1	6	0	3%	1.2
Michael Bandy	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Justin Herbert	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Derwin James	4	3	1.0	0
Drue Tranquill	5	1	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	2	4	0.0	0
Bryce Callahan	5	0	0.0	0
Derrek Tuszka	2	1	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	3	0	0.0	0
Morgan Fox	2	1	0.0	0
Troy Reeder	3	0	0.0	1
Joe Gaziano	1	1	0.0	0
Breiden Fehoko	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -5.5
Closing total: 52.5
KC moneyline: -231
LAC moneyline: +203

Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 57 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: KC 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Brandon Staley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.