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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q3 5:55, 3rd and 10, on Chris Olave — 15.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 5:55, Saints +15.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:55 · 3rd and 10
Chris Olave
Saints
(5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Donald]. Pass 40, YAC 13
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.00 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Donald]. Pass 40, YAC 13
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jarvis Landry's 7-yard touchdown catch with 10:27 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jarvis Landry7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy DaltonLead never changed again+714–179 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 61 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Saints’s 54 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Saints 5.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's pass rate over expected, −14.4 pts, is past their previous low of −7.3 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, +7.6 pts, is past their previous high of +1.6 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.9% in week 10 against 53.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-14.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 61 snaps
Saints7.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +14.4 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Rams53.3%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 45 early downs
Saints51.2%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Rams8.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −19.9 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Saints12.5%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Rams66.7%inside their normal wobble · +28.8 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Saints0.0%inside their normal wobble · −14.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 58%
Tendencies room →Rams21.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints28.6%inside their normal wobble · +10.4 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Rams18.8%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints14.3%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
LA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.4 pts, 11.0 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
21/25, 260 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · +14.4% completion over expected
Passing · LA
11/18, 159 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
4.5 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Andy Dalton banked 10.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 22.2 | +10.3 | 70% | — | 0% | — | 21/25, 260 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 21.2 | +9.3 | 49% | 63% | 22% | 46% | 5/6, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.7 | +5.0 | 63% | 75% | 15% | 26% | 3/4, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 12.9 | −0.8 | 70% | 69% | 19% | 3% | 12 car, 42 yd · 4/5, 47 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +2.3 | 56% | 59% | 15% | 17% | 3/4, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Taysom HillQB | 7.6 | −2.5 | 42% | — | 4% | 2% | 1/3, 14 yd · 9 car, 52 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.2 | 70% | 59% | 11% | 3% | 3/3, 12 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.4 | 49% | 66% | 7% | 2% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| David JohnsonRB | 1.7 | −0.4 | 18% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, -4 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 37% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:08) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-T.Atwell for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 46, YAC 16
Q1 4:08 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 38 · gained 62 · +5.20 EP · +17.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 87 yards from the LA 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
Saints3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams6Saints3Rams7Saints3Rams7Saints9Rams7Saints10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Rams13Saints10Rams14Saints10Rams14Saints16Rams14Saints17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams14Saints23Rams14Saints24Rams17Saints24Rams17Saints27Rams20Saints27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 11/18 | 159 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Bryce Perkins | 5/10 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Bryce Perkins | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 62 | 1 | 4% | +5.2 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/25 | 260 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +10.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/3 | 14 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_LA_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 47 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| Kyren Williams | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| +3.1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 30% | −0.6 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 19% | +0.2 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −0.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 15% | −3.1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Nick Scott | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| David Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 6 | 102 | 1 | 22% | +7.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 19% | +2.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 15% | +4.7 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 15% | +3.2 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −2.0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 5 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shy Tuttle | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Maye | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
