For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Rams156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Donald]. Pass 40, YAC 13
Swing +15.5 for SaintsExpected points +5.45 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:55NO +15% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Donald]. Pass 40, YAC 13
1st · 4:08NO +15% win prob(4:08) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-T.Atwell for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 46, YAC 16
2nd · 0:22NO +14% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 1-Al.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 0
2nd · 12:16NO +11% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0
2nd · 7:44NO +9% win prob(7:44) 3-C.Akers left end to NO 42 for 13 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
3rd · 11:10NO +8% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-J.Landry to LA 7 for 18 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Pass 13, YAC 5
1st · 7:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jarvis Landry's 7-yard touchdown catch with 10:27 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:19Wil Lutz·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+30–3
1st4:08Tutu Atwell·62-yd TD catch62-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–3
2nd12:16Juwan Johnson·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+77–10
2nd0:22Allen Robinson·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+714–10
3rd10:27Jarvis Landry·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy DaltonLead never changed again+714–17
3rd5:55Chris Olave·53-yd TD catch53-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+714–24
4th14:51Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+317–24
4th9:09Wil Lutz·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+317–27
4th0:11Matt Gay·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySaints
Rams2–5Saints
336Total yards325
5.5Yards per play6.0
39%Success rate50%
36%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
17First downs18
4Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Rams: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.09Saints: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Rams: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.28Saints: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Rams: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.19Saints: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 61 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Saints’s 54 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Saints 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, −14.4 pts, is past their previous low of −7.3 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, +7.6 pts, is past their previous high of +1.6 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.9% in week 10 against 53.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints14.3%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.4 pts, 11.0 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
63Oday AboushiG · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%64 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
64Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%64 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time92%59 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Full-time84%54 snaps
1Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time83%53 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Heavy rotation73%47 snaps
71Bobby EvansG · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation55%35 snaps
16Bryce PerkinsQB · Rotational41%26 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Rotational39%25 snaps
68Ty NsekheT · Rotational36%23 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Rotational31%20 snaps
82Lance McCutcheonWR · Situational16%10 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Situational11%7 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Situational9%6 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Brian AllenCShaun JollyDBJonah WilliamsDTTravin HowardILBJohn WolfordQBZachary ThomasT
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:08) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-T.Atwell for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 46, YAC 16
Q1 4:08 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 38 · gained 62 · +5.20 EP · +17.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 87 yards from the LA 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
659
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.0052%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.3193%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.2630%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR6-0.0850%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.90100%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5+0.0520%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 32
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 30
Rams0Saints3
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Rams 13
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams6Saints3
Rams7Saints3
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 42
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 3 to the Rams 5
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Rams7Saints9
Rams7Saints10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 8
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Saints 44
Rams13Saints10
Rams14Saints10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Saints 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Rams14Saints16
Rams14Saints17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 7
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Rams14Saints23
Rams14Saints24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 47
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 19
4th quarter50 plays
Rams17Saints24
Field goal3 plays
Rams17Saints27
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 3
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 44
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 17
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 25
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Rams 44
Rams20Saints27
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Saints 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
