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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders163 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 28-J.Jacobs to DEN 7 for 43 yards (31-J.Simmons; 47-J.Jewell).
Swing −33.9 for BroncosExpected points −2.96 for BroncosThe model had Raiders 11 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:57DEN +34% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 28-J.Jacobs to DEN 7 for 43 yards (31-J.Simmons; 47-J.Jewell).
Overtime · 9:13DEN +33% win prob(9:13) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau to DEN 35 for 33 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Overtime · 8:31DEN +21% win prob(8:31) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03LV +18% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 14-C.Sutton.
2nd · 5:44DEN +12% win prob(5:44) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-93-D.Jones, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 3:34DEN +11% win prob(3:34) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
4th · 3:01
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 35-yard touchdown catch with 8:31 left in overtime put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Raiders: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Raiders: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.11Broncos: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Raiders: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.16Broncos: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 62 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Broncos’s 62 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Broncos 2.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's play-action rate, 47.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 6.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 35.7% in week 7.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 10.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
LV's blitz rate sent, 57.1%, is past their previous high of 37.5% in week 9 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 10.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
DEN's blitz rate sent, 55.3%, is past their previous high of 37.7% in week 6 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 19.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 10.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
off script — got home · +15.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+2.17× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Broncos10.5%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteLV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 47.4%, 26.6 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 2.6 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Carr pass+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:13) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau to DEN 35 for 33 yards (31-J.Simmons).
OT 9:13 · Raiders · 2nd & 11 at LV 32 · gained 33 · +2.88 EP · +33.4% win probability
161 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2178%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1168%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.0941%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.0932%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1657%
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Broncos 32
Raiders0Broncos6
Raiders0Broncos7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Raiders 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Broncos 32
2nd quarter44 plays
No good5 plays
Raiders0Broncos10
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Raiders 30
Raiders6Broncos10
Raiders7Broncos10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 31
The period ended20 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Raiders 3
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 14
Raiders10Broncos10
Field goal5 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Broncos 33
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 40
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Broncos 48
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Raiders 26
4th quarter59 plays
Raiders10Broncos13
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 30
Raiders13Broncos13
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Broncos 34
Raiders13Broncos16
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Raiders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 35
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders16Broncos16
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Broncos 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 41
Overtime5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Raiders22Broncos16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Broncos 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
