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2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

22

Denver Broncos

16

DEN -2.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓

Las Vegas Raiders 22–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:57, DEN +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4DEN ↑LV ↓
Q4 · 0:57LV 13 — DEN 16LV ball · 1st & 10DEN 74%

(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 28-J.Jacobs to DEN 7 for 43 yards (31-J.Simmons; 47-J.Jewell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:57DEN +34% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 28-J.Jacobs to DEN 7 for 43 yards (31-J.Simmons; 47-J.Jewell).
  2. OT · 9:13DEN +33% win prob(9:13) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau to DEN 35 for 33 yards (31-J.Simmons).
  3. OT · 8:31DEN +21% win prob(8:31) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 0:03LV +18% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 14-C.Sutton.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:25DEN Touchdown

    (6:25) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — DEN 7
  2. Q2 · 9:24DEN Field goal

    (9:24) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: LV 0 — DEN 10
  3. Q2 · 5:44LV Touchdown

    (5:44) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-93-D.Jones, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 10
  4. Q3 · 10:39LV Field goal

    (10:39) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 10
  5. Q4 · 15:00DEN Field goal

    (15:00) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 13
  6. Q4 · 7:11LV Field goal

    (7:11) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — DEN 13
  7. Q4 · 3:34DEN Field goal

    (3:34) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — DEN 16
  8. Q4 · 0:19LV Field goal

    (:19) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 16 — DEN 16
  9. OT · 8:31LV Touchdown

    (8:31) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 22 — DEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersBroncos
Offensive plays6262
Total yards407 (edge)320
Yards per play6.6 (edge)5.2
Expected points added / play0.10 (edge)-0.01
Success rate42%45% (edge)
Dropback rate61%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.19 (edge)0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.16
Third downs3/115/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1819 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers00

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

23/37, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

24/31, 247 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · +16.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

24 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

17 att, 49 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

7/13 for 141 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 2610465:08Punt
2DENDEN 88743:30Touchdown +7
3LVLV 1514628:56Missed field goal
4DENDEN 368343:07Field goal +3
5LVLV 2510853:43Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 1415895:36Missed field goal
7DENDEN 135-12:08Punt
8LVLV 475202:15Field goal +3
9DENDEN 258102:53Punt
10LVLV 337243:09Punt
11DENDEN 289384:39Field goal +3
12LVLV 25521:04Punt
13DENDEN 244-61:50Punt
14LVLV 3510264:56Field goal +3
15DENDEN 189523:36Field goal +3
16LVLV 25540:25Punt
17DENDEN 206141:22Punt
18LVLV 227711:27Field goal +3
19DENDEN 254160:16Turnover on downs
20LVLV 334671:36Touchdown +6

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a missed field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr23/373072017.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs241094.50-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams713141235%8.0
Mack Hollins6952024%0.9
Josh Jacobs3451011%2.2
Foster Moreau133308%1.6
Keelan Cole122105%0.3
Ameer Abdullah345011%-3.8
Brandon Bolden11403%-0.1
Jakob Johnson11003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Andrew Billings150.000
Maxx Crosby512.000
Roderic Teamer320.000
Denzel Perryman410.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao310.000
Luke Masterson220.000
Duron Harmon310.000
Jayon Brown310.000
Bilal Nichols220.000
Rock Ya-Sin300.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson24/312470031.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Latavius Murray17492.91-1.7
Melvin Gordon8313.90-2.1
Russell Wilson188.002.4
Chase Edmonds263.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton5780025%5.5
Kendall Hinton3357011%4.9
Melvin Gordon5539018%1.0
Greg Dulcich4530018%-1.4
Latavius Murray4423014%0.5
Eric Saubert221607%1.1
Brandon Johnson12207%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell471.001
Alex Singleton640.000
Damarri Mathis710.001
Jonathon Cooper420.000
Baron Browning220.000
DeShawn Williams120.001
Patrick Surtain200.000
Kareem Jackson110.000
Justin Simmons110.000
Mike Purcell110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Closing total
41.5
LV moneyline
+131
DEN moneyline
-145

Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 38 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
49°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
LV 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Nathaniel Hackett

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.