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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q4 0:26, 4th and 3 — 46.1 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 10–3. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, Patriots +46.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:26 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
46.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 20% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.13 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marcus Jones's 84-yard return touchdown with 0:26 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Patriots’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Patriots 2.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-11.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.9 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 49 snaps
Patriots-7.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 89%
Tendencies room →Jets48.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 35 early downs
Patriots53.5%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 47%
Tendencies room →Jets20.7%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Patriots21.2%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Jets0.0%inside their normal wobble · −30.4 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±32.9 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots25.0%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 58%
Tendencies room →Jets18.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots34.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jets18.2%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots17.2%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.0 pts, 7.9 points below their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
23/27, 246 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.3 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
9/22, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-12.4 expected points added · -22.4% completion over expected
Receiving · NE
6/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Damien Harris banked 4.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | −2.6 | 78% | 82% | 22% | 0% | 15 car, 26 yd · 6/6, 56 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 11.3 | +4.4 | 24% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 8 car, 65 yd · 2/2, 28 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | +1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/27, 246 yd · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | −0.1 | 95% | 97% | 22% | 42% | 4/6, 52 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +1.2 | 54% | 45% | 15% | 6% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/4, 40 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 5.7 | −2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 9/22, 77 yd · 3 car, 26 yd |
| Denzel MimsWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.5 | −3.1 | 90% | 90% | 30% | 41% | 2/6, 35 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.9 | 40% | 33% | 7% | 15% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.5 | 59% | 64% | 11% | 26% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 3.7 | −1.8 | 54% | 55% | 20% | 23% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.9 | 74% | 79% | 15% | 11% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.0 | 100% | 100% | 15% | 17% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.5 | 84% | 91% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Committee Back | 2.7 | −3.9 | 50% | 55% | 10% | 0% | 8 car, 19 yd · 1/2, -2 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 38% | 36% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.3 | 27% | 30% | 7% | 4% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| James RobinsonRB | 1.0 | −2.3 | 22% | 10% | 0% | — | 7 car, 10 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.4 | −3.1 | 28% | 31% | 5% | 15% | 4 car, 4 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 66% | 66% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:26 · Jets · 4th & 3 at NYJ 32 · gained nothing · -7.00 EP · −41.8% win probability
147 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
2 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 74 yards from the NE 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Patriots3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets3Patriots3Jets3Patriots9Jets3Patriots10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 9/22 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −12.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Michael Carter | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 | −3.4 |
| James Robinson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 30% | +0.2 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/27 | 246 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_NYJ_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 13 — under by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 17.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 7 |
| 10 |
| 1.4 |
| 0 |
| −3.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| −0.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 15% | −2.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15% | +0.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micheal Clemons | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamarcus Joyner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 0 | −8.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 22% | +4.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 22% | +2.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adrian Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
