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2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

New York Jets

3

New England PatriotsWinner

10

NE -3.5 ✓U 38.5 ✓

New England Patriots 10–3. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, NYJ +46% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NE ↑NYJ ↓
Q4 · 0:26NYJ 3 — NE 9NYJ ball · 4th & 3NE 52%

(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:26NYJ +46% win prob(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 2:00NYJ +14% win prob(2:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 20.
  3. Q4 · 4:15NYJ +13% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 23 for -7 yards (91-D.Wise).
  4. Q2 · 2:55NYJ +11% win prob(2:55) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 15:00NE Field goal

    (15:00) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 6-Folk 53rd consecutive FG under 40 yds (NFL record is 70, Tucker).

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — NE 3
  2. Q2 · 9:42NYJ Field goal

    (9:42) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NE 3
  3. Q4 · 0:26NE Touchdown

    (:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NE 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsPatriots
Offensive plays4959
Total yards103297 (edge)
Yards per play2.15.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.42-0.13 (edge)
Success rate20%41% (edge)
Dropback rate59%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.35-0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.53-0.25 (edge)
Third downs3/144/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)25 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps413 (edge)
Sacks taken4 (edge)6
Turnovers00

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

23/27, 246 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

9/22, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.4 expected points added · -22.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

8 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

15 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-8.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

6/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

4/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 25541:53Punt
2NYJNYJ 25461:27Punt
3NENE 26481:29Punt
4NYJNYJ 236182:28Punt
5NENE 2014797:46Field goal +3
6NYJNYJ 2710465:19Field goal +3
7NENE 3012546:49Missed field goal
8NYJNYJ 347232:04Punt
9NENE 14460:26Punt
10NYJNYJ 42180:19End of half
11NYJNYJ 345-61:55Punt
12NENE 287573:57Missed field goal
13NYJNYJ 33421:36Punt
14NENE 156343:22Punt
15NYJNYJ 5471:24Punt
16NENE 445202:40Turnover on downs
17NYJNYJ 364-110:57Punt
18NENE 286253:17Punt
19NYJNYJ 18401:51Punt
20NENE 45432:21Punt
21NYJNYJ 20733:18Punt
22NENE 34471:30Punt
23NYJNYJ 20671:47Defensive touchdown
24NYJ—100:05End of game

2 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 79 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Zach Wilson9/2277004-12.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zach Wilson3268.702.3
Michael Carter8192.40-3.4
James Robinson7101.40-3.5
Ty Johnson441.00-2.8
Garrett Wilson100.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Denzel Mims2635030%0.2
Elijah Moore2417020%-0.2
Tyler Conklin2315015%-2.5
Garrett Wilson2312015%0.4
Ty Johnson01005%-0.6
Braxton Berrios01005%-0.5
Michael Carter12-2010%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
C.J. Mosley520.000
D.J. Reed600.000
Quincy Williams151.000
Jordan Whitehead500.000
Quinnen Williams321.000
Michael Carter410.001
Micheal Clemons401.000
Lamarcus Joyner220.000
John Franklin-Myers031.000
Kwon Alexander300.000

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones23/27246006-1.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Damien Harris8658.101.0
Rhamondre Stevenson15261.70-8.6
Jonnu Smith155.000.7
Mac Jones231.500.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rhamondre Stevenson6656022%4.0
Jakobi Meyers4652022%2.9
Jonnu Smith4440015%1.3
Damien Harris222807%1.7
Hunter Henry112004%1.3
DeVante Parker221907%0.9
Nelson Agholor2318011%-1.2
Kendrick Bourne11804%-0.9
Tyquan Thornton12507%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ja'Whaun Bentley610.000
Kyle Dugger331.001
Matt Judon321.500
Deatrich Wise131.001
Adrian Phillips120.000
Jonathan Jones110.001
Raekwon McMillan110.000
Davon Godchaux110.000
Mack Wilson010.500
Anfernee Jennings100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -3.5
Closing total
38.5
NYJ moneyline
+163
NE moneyline
-182

Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 13 — under by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
42°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
NYJ 14 days · NE 14 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.