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New York Jets 3 at New England Patriots 10. Final.
Patriots -3.5 ✓U 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 11
New England Patriots 10, Jets 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:26, 4th and 3 — 46.1 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:26 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.3 mph wind
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
New England Patriots 10–3. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, Patriots +46.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
46.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zach WilsonPatriotsQ4 4:15(4:15) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 23 for -7 yards (91-D.Wise).
13.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ4 2:00(2:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 20.
13.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 20% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.13 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jets148 of 162 plays carry both curves
(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +46.1 for PatriotsExpected points +7.00 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 3 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:26NYJ +46% win prob(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00NYJ +14% win prob(2:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 20.
4th · 4:15NYJ +13% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 23 for -7 yards (91-D.Wise).
2nd · 2:55NYJ +11% win prob(2:55) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
4th · 0:32NYJ +11% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 32-Mi.Carter to NYJ 32 for -2 yards (23-K.Dugger).
4th · 3:30NE +10% win prob(3:30) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
4th · 1:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marcus Jones's 84-yard return touchdown with 0:26 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd15:00Nick Folk·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Cardona+30–3
2nd9:42Greg Zuerlein·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
4th0:26Marcus Jones·84-yd return TD84-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+73–10
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Jets1–6Patriots
103Total yards297
2.1Yards per play5.0
20%Success rate41%
21%Third-down rate27%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays5
4First downs13
4Sacks taken6
0Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.42Jets: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.13Patriots: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Jets: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.04Patriots: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.53Jets: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.25Patriots: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Patriots’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Patriots 2.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots17.2%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.0 pts, 7.9 points below their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mann punts−42% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:26 · Jets · 4th & 3 at NYJ 32 · gained nothing · -7.00 EP · −41.8% win probability
147 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
2 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 74 yards from the NE 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.28
Success rate
31%
Yards
400
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.2060%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.3556%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1152%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.4244%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 34
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 36
The period ended15 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Jets 14
2nd quarter44 plays
Jets0Patriots3
Field goal2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jets3Patriots3
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Patriots 18
No good14 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Jets 7
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Patriots 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 20
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 37
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Jets 22
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 35
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Jets 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 5 to the Jets 12
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Jets 36
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 43
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Patriots 48
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 43
Jets3Patriots9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 34
Jets3Patriots10
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3.5
Closing total
38.5
Jets moneyline
+163
Patriots moneyline
-182
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 13 — under by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Jets 14 days · Patriots 14 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 17.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
NE +10% win prob
(1:40) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 15 for -5 yards (30-M.Wilson). PENALTY on NE-31-Jo.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 20 - No Play.
2nd · 12:53NE +10% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 11-D.Mims to NE 25 for 34 yards (21-A.Phillips).
