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2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia17
BY 1final margin
ColtsIndianapolis16
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at Indianapolis Colts 16. Final.
Eagles -6.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 11
Philadelphia Eagles 17, Colts 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 9:43, 2nd and 4, on A.J. Brown — 24.4 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:43 · 2nd and 4
A.J. Brown
Colts
(9:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-93-E.Johnson at IND 34.
Dome
Eagles closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:43, Colts +24.4% win probability on one snap.
24.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen HurtsEaglesQ4 3:48(3:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 26-M.Sanders. PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at PHI 33 - No Play.
19.1pts
Matt RyanEaglesQ4 0:48(:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 33 for -7 yards (55-B.Graham).
17.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Eagles163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(9:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-93-E.Johnson at IND 34.
Swing +24.4 for ColtsExpected points +5.02 for ColtsThe model had Colts 13 points higher than the market did.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:43PHI +24% win prob(9:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-93-E.Johnson at IND 34.
4th · 3:48IND +19% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 26-M.Sanders. PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at PHI 33 - No Play.
4th · 0:48PHI +17% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 33 for -7 yards (55-B.Graham).
4th · 2:00IND +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to IND 6 for 3 yards (26-R.McLeod; 44-Z.Franklin).
4th · 11:04PHI +15% win prob(11:04) 28-J.Taylor right guard to PHI 43 for 7 yards (22-M.Epps; 7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (22-M.Epps), RECOVERED by PHI-57-T.Edwards at PHI 43.
4th · 1:24IND +14% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 1:24 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th4:42Chase McLaughlin·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+310–16
4th1:24Jalen Hurts·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryColts
Eagles7–1Colts
316Total yards284
5.4Yards per play4.6
49%Success rate35%
42%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
17First downs14
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Eagles: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.15Colts: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Eagles: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Eagles: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.22Colts: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Colts’s 62 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Colts 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Colts13.3%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.1 pts, 13.4 points below their season mean of -0.7 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-93-E.Johnson at IND 34.
Q4 9:43 · Eagles · 2nd & 4 at IND 40 · gained 6 · -5.02 EP · −22.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
36%
Yards
598
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1149%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0873%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3520%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1543%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Eagles0Colts6
Eagles0Colts7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Eagles 1
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 47
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 37
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Colts 34
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 24
Eagles3Colts7
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Colts 2
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 41
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 29
Eagles3Colts10
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Eagles 33
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles3Colts13
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 17
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Colts 38
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Eagles 13
No good9 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Eagles 27
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Eagles9Colts13
Eagles10Colts13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Colts 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Colts 25 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Colts 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Eagles10Colts16
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Eagles 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles16Colts16
Eagles17Colts16
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Colts 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
