2022 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 21, 2022 · Azteca Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

SF -10 ✓O 43.5 ✓49ers closed -10 and covered, winning by 28.

San Francisco 49ers 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:56, SF +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:56SF 0 — ARI 0SF ball · 3rd & 8SF 83%

(12:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Jennings.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:56SF +5% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Jennings.
Q1 · 8:00ARI +4% win prob(8:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 36 for 11 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q2 · 8:51ARI +4% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:20ARI +4% win prob(10:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at SF 39 for 17 yards (7-C.Ward) [97-N.Bosa].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:03ARI Field goal
(8:03) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: SF 0 — ARI 3
Q2 · 13:40SF Touchdown
(13:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — ARI 3
Q2 · 8:51SF Touchdown
(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — ARI 3
Q2 · 4:24ARI Touchdown
(4:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — ARI 10
Q2 · 0:47SF Field goal
(:47) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 17 — ARI 10
Q3 · 10:44SF Touchdown
(10:44) 19-D.Samuel left end for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 24 — ARI 10
Q3 · 0:33SF Touchdown
(:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 31 — ARI 10
Q4 · 10:17SF Touchdown
(10:17) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 38 — ARI 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	55	71
Total yards	389 (edge)	314
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	56% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	53%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.56 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	8/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

20/29, 228 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

16.2 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Colt McCoyQB

24/34, 218 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.4 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

9 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

14 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

9/10 for 103 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

9/12 for 91 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	0	1:28	Punt
2	SF	SF 37	4	2	0:54	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 20	11	58	4:38	Field goal +3
4	SF	SF 25	6	17	2:13	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 4	7	19	3:06	Punt
6	SF	SF 18	10	67	4:06	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 25	9	34	3:58	Interception
8	SF	ARI 46	4	46	0:55	Touchdown +7
9	ARI	ARI 25	11	75	4:23	Touchdown +7
10	SF	SF 25	11	54	3:36	Field goal +3
11	ARI	ARI 25	4	-1	0:43	End of half
12	SF	SF 25	10	75	4:26	Touchdown +7
13	ARI	ARI 25	9	34	2:42	Turnover on downs
14	SF	SF 42	4	7	1:28	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 12	4	0	1:59	Punt
16	SF	ARI 47	7	52	3:57	Touchdown +7
17	ARI	ARI 25	7	15	2:18	Turnover on downs
18	SF	50	6	50	3:02	Touchdown +7
19	ARI	ARI 25	7	28	2:11	Punt
20	SF	SF 11	4	9	2:25	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 34	10	52	3:25	Interception
22	SF	SF 20	4	10	2:07	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	20/29	228	4	0	0	16.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	9	59	6.6	0	2.9
Christian McCaffrey	7	39	5.6	0	1.2
Deebo Samuel	3	37	12.3	1	1.2
Jordan Mason	4	14	3.5	0	-2.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	4	4.0	0	0.2
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	3	3.0	0	0.5
Brock Purdy	3	3	1.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	4	6	84	2	21%	8.9
Christian McCaffrey	7	7	67	0	24%	4.4
Deebo Samuel	7	9	57	0	31%	2.3
Brandon Aiyuk	2	4	20	2	14%	3.4
Jauan Jennings	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Charvarius Ward	8	1	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	7	1	0.0	0	1
Talanoa Hufanga	5	1	0.0	0	0
Fred Warner	5	1	1.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	2	0.0	1	1
Samuel Womack	3	1	0.0	1	2
Nick Bosa	3	0	1.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Kevin Givens	2	0	1.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	24/34	218	0	1	3	-4.4
Trace McSorley	6/10	59	0	1	0	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	14	42	3.0	1	-1.4
Keaontay Ingram	5	19	3.8	0	-1.1
Colt McCoy	3	6	2.0	0	-1.0
Trace McSorley	1	6	6.0	0	0.0
Rondale Moore	1	-6	-6.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Greg Dortch	9	10	103	24%	4.0
DeAndre Hopkins	9	12	91	29%	5.4
A.J. Green	5	9	50	21%	-4.0
Trey McBride	4	4	14	10%	-1.1
James Conner	2	5	12	12%	-5.2
Maxx Williams	1	1	7	2%	0.4
Stephen Anderson	0	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Budda Baker	6	2	1
Zaven Collins	2	5	0
Ben Niemann	2	5	0
Marco Wilson	3	0	2
Antonio Hamilton	3	0	0
Michael Dogbe	2	0	0
Leki Fotu	1	1	0
Chris Banjo	1	1	0
James Conner	1	0	0
Markus Golden	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -10
Closing total: 43.5
SF moneyline: -422
ARI moneyline: +350

49ers closed -10 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 48 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Azteca Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: SF 8 days · ARI 8 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.