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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 21, 2022 · Azteca Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q1 12:56, 3rd and 8, on Jimmy Garoppolo — 4.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:56, Cardinals +4.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:56 · 3rd and 8
Jimmy Garoppolo
Cardinals
(12:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Jennings.
4.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.17 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(12:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Jennings.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon Aiyuk's 7-yard touchdown catch with 13:40 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Brandon Aiyuk7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+77–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryCardinals
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 55 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 71 at 69%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Cardinals 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 30.0% in week 10 against 13.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-1.9 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 55 snaps
Cardinals-1.4 ptsright on their number · +0.3 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 85%
Tendencies room →49ers47.7%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 44 early downs
Cardinals60.4%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →49ers13.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Cardinals6.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.7 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 104%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.8%.
Cardinals66.7%inside their normal wobble · +15.1 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±19.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 62%
Tendencies room →49ers16.3%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Cardinals31.0%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →49ers18.4%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Cardinals13.8%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
ARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.1%, 8.7 points below their season mean of 14.8% and 1.0 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
20/29, 228 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
16.2 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
24/34, 218 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
9/12 for 91 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 14.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 25.4 | +13.1 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 228 yd, 4 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 24.4 | +14.7 | 74% | 83% | 21% | 23% | 4/6, 84 yd, 2 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +5.5 | 59% | 76% | 31% | 15% | 3 car, 37 yd, 1 TD · 7/9, 57 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Featured Receiver | 19.3 | +4.6 | 93% | 94% | 24% | 10% | 9/10, 103 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.1 | +1.1 | 69% | 76% | 29% | 47% | 9/12, 91 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 17.6 | +3.6 | 66% | 93% | 24% | 11% | 7 car, 39 yd · 7/7, 67 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.0 | +7.2 | 79% | 93% | 14% | 19% | 2/4, 20 yd, 2 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 13.4 | −2.3 | 77% | 80% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 2/5, 12 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Featured Receiver | 10.0 | −5.9 | 77% | 80% | 21% | 37% | 5/9, 50 yd |
| Colt McCoyQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −5.0 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 24/34, 218 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 5.9 | +0.8 | 22% | 7% | 0% | — | 9 car, 59 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.8 | 76% | 71% | 10% | 2% | 4/4, 14 yd |
| Keaontay IngramRB | 1.9 | −0.7 | 25% | 24% | 0% | — | 5 car, 19 yd |
| Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 18% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 1.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trace McSorleyQB | 1.0 | −4.2 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 6/10, 59 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.4 | 0.0 | 43% | 31% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Corey ClementRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 14% | 14% | 2% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 38% | 59% | 7% | 31% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 14% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.6 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle intended for 6-J.Conner INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at ARI 46. 1-J.Ward to ARI 46 for no gain (6-J.Conner).
Q2 9:42 · Cardinals · 2nd & 11 at ARI 44 · gained nothing · -4.20 EP · −10.0% win probability
157 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 82 yards from the SF 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Cardinals349ers6Cardinals349ers7Cardinals3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
49ers13Cardinals349ers14Cardinals349ers14Cardinals949ers14Cardinals1049ers17Cardinals1049ers23Cardinals1049ers24Cardinals1049ers30Cardinals1049ers31Cardinals1049ers37Cardinals1049ers38Cardinals10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/29 | 228 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +16.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Deebo Samuel |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 84 | 2 | 21% | +8.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charvarius Ward | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Talanoa Hufanga |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 24/34 | 218 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −4.4 |
| Trace McSorley | 6/10 | 59 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_SF_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -10 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 48 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 37 |
| 12.3 |
| 1 |
| +1.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| 24% |
| +4.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 9 | 57 | 0 | 31% | +2.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 14% | +3.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.9 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Fred Warner | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Samuel Womack | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Givens | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 9 | 10 | 103 | 0 | 24% | +4.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 12 | 91 | 0 | 29% | +5.4 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 21% | −4.0 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| James Conner | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 12% | −5.2 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | +0.4 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Antonio Hamilton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Dogbe | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leki Fotu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Banjo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Golden | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
