2022 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 17, 2022 · Lambeau Field

Tennessee TitansWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -3 upsetO 40.5 ✓25°FPackers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 14:05, GB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:05TEN 0 — GB 0TEN ball · 3rd & 7GB 61%

(14:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to GB 37 for 43 yards (25-K.Nixon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:05GB +12% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to GB 37 for 43 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q1 · 0:05GB +10% win prob(:05) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
Q3 · 2:34GB +10% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to TEN 8 for 23 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q4 · 10:55TEN +9% win prob(10:55) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 12. 29-R.Douglas to GB 34 for 22 yards (17-R.Tannehill).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:36TEN Touchdown
(10:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — GB 0
Q1 · 0:05GB Touchdown
(:05) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
Score after this play: TEN 7 — GB 6
Q2 · 0:36TEN Touchdown
(:36) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 14 — GB 6
Q3 · 8:29GB Field goal
(8:29) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: TEN 14 — GB 9
Q3 · 5:21TEN Touchdown
(5:21) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TEN 20 — GB 9
Q3 · 2:09GB Touchdown
(2:09) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: TEN 20 — GB 17
Q4 · 15:00TEN Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 27 — GB 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Packers
Offensive plays	61	60
Total yards	411 (edge)	273
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	49% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	52%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.54 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

22/27, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

16.9 expected points added · +23.6% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

24/39, 227 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

28 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Treylon BurksWR

7/8 for 111 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Randall CobbWR

6/6 for 73 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 17	10	83	4:29	Touchdown +7
2	GB	GB 12	5	4	1:29	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 39	4	-3	2:01	Punt
4	GB	GB 22	12	75	7:01	Touchdown +6
5	TEN	TEN 33	19	55	10:06	Turnover on downs
6	GB	GB 6	4	4	1:33	Punt
7	TEN	GB 41	10	36	2:49	Touchdown +7
8	GB	GB 22	4	13	0:32	End of half
9	GB	GB 28	14	51	6:35	Field goal +3
10	TEN	TEN 9	8	91	3:08	Touchdown +6
11	GB	GB 31	9	71	3:13	Touchdown +8
12	TEN	TEN 37	7	63	2:09	Touchdown +7
13	GB	GB 23	5	3	1:10	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 37	5	29	3:01	Interception
15	GB	GB 34	4	8	1:31	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 13	4	9	2:14	Punt
17	GB	TEN 44	4	7	1:38	Turnover on downs
18	TEN	TEN 38	4	-3	0:27	Punt
19	GB	GB 19	10	37	2:50	Turnover on downs
20	TEN	TEN 44	4	51	2:04	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 91 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	22/27	333	2	1	3	16.9
Derrick Henry	2/2	4	1	0	0	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	28	87	3.1	1	-1.7
Dontrell Hilliard	1	4	4.0	0	-0.9
Ryan Tannehill	3	-3	-1.0	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Treylon Burks	7	8	111	0	30%	3.7
Robert Woods	6	7	69	0	26%	5.9
Derrick Henry	2	2	45	0	7%	2.8
Austin Hooper	4	4	36	2	15%	4.3
Chigoziem Okonkwo	1	2	31	0	7%	2.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	2	28	0	7%	3.4
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	14	1	4%	2.1
Geoff Swaim	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Long Jr.	5	3	0.0	0
Joshua Kalu	6	0	0.0	1
Jeffery Simmons	1	4	1.0	0
Kevin Byard	5	0	0.0	0
Kristian Fulton	3	1	0.0	0
Dylan Cole	2	2	0.0	0
Kevin Strong	1	2	0.0	0
Monty Rice	1	2	0.0	0
Roger McCreary	2	1	0.0	0
Ryan Tannehill	1	0	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	24/39	227	2	0	1	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	12	40	3.3	-3.0
A.J. Dillon	6	13	2.2	-1.1
Christian Watson	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	6	6	73	0	16%	3.5
Allen Lazard	5	11	57	0	30%	-0.1
Christian Watson	4	6	48	2	16%	5.5
Aaron Jones	6	7	20	0	19%	-0.4
Robert Tonyan	2	4	19	0	11%	-1.7
A.J. Dillon	1	1	10	0	3%	0.9
Sammy Watkins	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Krys Barnes	4	7	1.0	0	0
Quay Walker	6	4	0.5	0	0
Adrian Amos	4	4	0.0	0	0
Rudy Ford	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jaire Alexander	2	2	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	1	3	1.5	0	0
Jarran Reed	2	2	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	1	0.0	1	1
Darnell Savage	2	1	0.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -3
Closing total: 40.5
TEN moneyline: +153
GB moneyline: -171

Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 25°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: TEN 4 days · GB 4 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Matt LaFleur