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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 17, 2022 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q1 14:05, 3rd and 7, on Treylon Burks — 11.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 14:05, Titans +11.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:05 · 3rd and 7
Treylon Burks
Titans
(14:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to GB 37 for 43 yards (25-K.Nixon).
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.54 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(14:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to GB 37 for 43 yards (25-K.Nixon).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dontrell Hilliard's 14-yard touchdown catch with 10:36 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Dontrell Hilliard14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+77–0
Christian Watson14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick blocked by D.Autry+67–6Austin Hooper3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Derrick Henry · kick no good, hit right upright+620–9Christian Watson8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · two-point good+820–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryPackers
Titans ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Packers’s 60 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Titans 6, Packers 3.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's blitz rate sent, 2.5%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 7.2 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
TEN's pass rate over expected, +1.3 pts, is past their previous high of −1.8 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
GB's play-action rate turned over: 43.5% in week 10 against 12.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 34.7% in week 10 against 7.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 26.1% in week 10 against 62.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Titans1.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.9 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 61 snaps
Packers-4.2 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →Titans51.1%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 47 early downs
Packers62.8%inside their normal wobble · +9.8 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →Titans37.5%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers12.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −14.3 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Titans66.7%leaned — went for it · +45.8 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 54%
Tendencies room →Titans2.5%leaned — sat back · −18.4 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.96× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Packers28.1%right on their number · +5.3 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Titans7.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers12.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
TEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.5%, 18.4 points below their season mean of 20.9% and 2.0 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
22/27, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
16.9 expected points added · +23.6% completion over expected
Passing · GB
24/39, 227 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.7 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Austin Hooper banked 10.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.4 | +4.5 | 71% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 4 yd, 1 TD · 28 car, 87 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 45 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.1 | +7.5 | 80% | 78% | 16% | 28% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/6, 48 yd, 2 TD |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 19.6 | +10.1 | 45% | 47% | 15% | 14% | 4/4, 36 yd, 2 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 19.1 | +4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 227 yd, 2 TD |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | +4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 333 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.1 | +4.8 | 50% | 66% | 30% | 41% | 7/8, 111 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.0 | −2.6 | 66% | 63% | 19% | 0% | 12 car, 40 yd · 6/7, 20 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +4.5 | 56% | 63% | 16% | 14% | 6/6, 73 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | +0.3 | 76% | 84% | 26% | 23% | 6/7, 69 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.7 | −6.8 | 92% | 98% | 30% | 46% | 5/11, 57 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB | 8.8 | +6.0 | 18% | 25% | 4% | 4% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +2.1 | 79% | 84% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 4.1 | +1.7 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.0 | 59% | 71% | 11% | 6% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 3.3 | −0.7 | 48% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.2 | 71% | 53% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 36% | 34% | 5% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| C.J. BoardWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:59) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry up the middle to GB 6 for -2 yards (7-Q.Walker, 91-P.Smith).
Q2 4:59 · Titans · 4th & 1 at GB 4 · lost 2 · -3.68 EP · −16.2% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 91 yards from the TEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Titans6
Packers0Titans7Packers0How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Titans7Packers6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Titans13Packers6Titans14Packers6Titans14Packers9Titans20Packers9Titans20Packers15Titans20Packers17Titans26Packers17Titans27Packers17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/27 | 333 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +16.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 2/2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 87 | 3.1 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 7 | 8 | 111 | 0 | 30% | +3.7 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kalu | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 227 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_TEN_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.9 |
| +5.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 36 | 2 | 15% | +4.3 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +3.4 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Strong | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Monty Rice | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.0 |
| A.J. Dillon | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 16% | +3.5 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 11 | 57 | 0 | 30% | −0.1 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 48 | 2 | 16% | +5.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 19% | −0.4 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 11% | −1.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 4 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 6 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
