2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · NRG Stadium
Washington CommandersWinner
23
Houston Texans
10
Washington Commanders 23–10. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, WAS +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 13:24WAS +19% win prob(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 14:08WAS +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin [96-M.Collins].
- Q2 · 11:49HOU +6% win prob(11:49) 10-C.Samuel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 2:37WAS +4% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 24 for -9 yards (93-J.Allen).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 13:24WAS Touchdown
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — HOU 0 - Q2 · 11:49WAS Touchdown
(11:49) 10-C.Samuel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 14 — HOU 0 - Q2 · 4:55WAS Field goal
(4:55) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined.
Score after this play: WAS 17 — HOU 0 - Q2 · 0:10WAS Field goal
(:10) 6-J.Slye 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — HOU 0 - Q3 · 9:56HOU Field goal
(9:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — HOU 3 - Q4 · 12:12WAS Field goal
(12:12) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 23 — HOU 3 - Q4 · 3:25HOU Touchdown
(3:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 23 — HOU 10
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Commanders | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 53 |
| Total yards | 344 (edge) | 149 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 (edge) | 2.8 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.06 (edge) | -0.40 |
| Success rate | 42% (edge) | 28% |
| Dropback rate | 42% | 75% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.04 (edge) | -0.37 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 (edge) | -0.50 |
| Third downs | 3/13 (edge) | 2/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 10 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · WAS
15/27, 191 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
19/33, 169 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-18.6 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | WAS 24 | 5 | 1 | 1:09 | Punt | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 32 | 2 | 0 | 0:35 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | -4 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 4 | WAS | WAS 42 | 4 | 4 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 25 | 4 | 9 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 6 | WAS | WAS 18 | 8 | 36 | 3:35 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 20 | 7 | 4 | 2:58 | Punt | |
| 8 | WAS | WAS 15 | 10 | 80 | 5:11 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | -11 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 10 | WAS | WAS 39 | 10 | 54 | 4:50 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:53 | Punt | |
| 12 | WAS | WAS 33 | 11 | 71 | 2:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:07 | End of half | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 25 | 12 | 58 | 5:07 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | WAS | WAS 31 | 8 | 20 | 3:27 | Punt | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 6 | 7 | 3 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 17 | WAS | HOU 46 | 10 | 29 | 6:31 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 27 | 2:03 | Interception | |
| 19 | WAS | WAS 3 | 5 | 11 | 2:26 | Punt | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 45 | 12 | 55 | 4:20 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | WAS | HOU 42 | 8 | 38 | 3:19 | End of game |
6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Washington Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 15/27 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 0 | -4.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 1 | 2.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 26% | 2.8 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 30% | 2.7 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 13% | 1.6 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | 1.3 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9% | -0.6 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 9% | -0.4 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.9 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Curl | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Bostic | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 19/33 | 169 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -18.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 | 4.0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 | -6.3 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 19% | -2.0 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 22% | 0.3 |
| Chris Moore | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 22% | -2.7 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | -0.7 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | -1.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | 0.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond King | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| M.J. Stewart | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- WAS -3
- Closing total
- 41
- WAS moneyline
- -150
- HOU moneyline
- +135
Commanders closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Scott Novak
- Rest
- WAS 6 days · HOU 7 days
- Coaches
- Ron Rivera vs Lovie Smith