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Washington Commanders 23 at Houston Texans 10. Final.
Commanders -3 ✓U 41 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 11
Washington Commanders 23, Texans 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:24, 2nd and 10, on Kendall Fuller — 18.6 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:24 · 2nd and 10
Kendall Fuller
Commanders
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Commanders closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.
Washington Commanders 23–10. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, Commanders +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Taylor HeinickeTexansQ1 14:08(14:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin [96-M.Collins].
6.0pts
Curtis SamuelCommandersQ2 11:49(11:49) 10-C.Samuel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Commanders155 of 166 plays carry both curves
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.6 for TexansExpected points −8.58 for TexansThe model had Texans 16 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:24WAS +19% win prob(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:08WAS +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin [96-M.Collins].
2nd · 11:49HOU +6% win prob(11:49) 10-C.Samuel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:37WAS +4% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 24 for -9 yards (93-J.Allen).
1st · 5:01WAS +4% win prob(5:01) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.
1st · 7:05HOU +3% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to 50 for 10 yards (25-D.King).
1st · 13:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kendall Fuller's 37-yard touchdown with 13:24 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Commanders ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.40Texans: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Commanders: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.37Texans: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.50Texans: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Texans’s 53 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Texans 2.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 11.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.6 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points.
HOU's play-action rate, 17.5%, is past their previous low of 19.5% in week 2 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +3.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans21.4%
inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 48.7 points above their season mean of 31.3% and 2.1 times their own 23.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Mills pass−22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:24 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at HOU 32 · gained nothing · -8.58 EP · −21.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 85 yards from the WAS 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
35%
Yards
492
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0150%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1672%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1843%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.8383%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12-0.438%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1340%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 25
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Commanders6Texans0
Touchdown2 plays
Commanders7Texans0
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Commanders 46
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Texans 46
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 34
2nd quarter46 plays
Commanders13Texans0
Commanders14Texans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Texans 10
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Commanders17Texans0
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Texans 5
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Commanders20Texans0
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Texans 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Commanders20Texans3
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Commanders 4
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Texans 49
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Texans 21
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Texans 34
4th quarter43 plays
Commanders23Texans3
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 22
Intercepted8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Commanders 48
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 16
Commanders23Texans9
Commanders23Texans10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Commanders 3
The period ended13 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -3
Closing total
41
Commanders moneyline
-150
Texans moneyline
+135
Commanders closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Commanders 6 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Lovie Smith
WAS +3% win prob
(13:16) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce right guard to HOU 22 for -3 yards (93-J.Allen). Penalty on HOU, Illegal Shift, declined.
1st · 2:05HOU +3% win prob(2:05) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 34 for 9 yards (34-T.Hairston). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
