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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 20, 2022 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 11
It turned at Q1 13:24, 2nd and 10, on Kendall Fuller — 18.6 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 23–10. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, Commanders +18.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:24 · 2nd and 10
Kendall Fuller
Commanders
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kendall Fuller's 37-yard touchdown with 13:24 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Kendall Fuller37-yd defense TD37-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+77–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryTexans
Commanders ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Texans’s 53 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Texans 2.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 11.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.6 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
HOU's play-action rate, 17.5%, is past their previous low of 19.5% in week 2 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-12.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 67 snaps
Texans2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 88%
Tendencies room →Commanders36.5%inside their normal wobble · −12.5 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 52 early downs
Texans66.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 51%
Tendencies room →Commanders25.0%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Texans17.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.6 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Commanders66.7%leaned — went for it · +31.4 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Texans80.0%off script — went for it · +48.7 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 47%
Tendencies room →Commanders12.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans10.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 44%
Tendencies room →Commanders22.5%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans21.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 48.7 points above their season mean of 31.3% and 2.1 times their own 23.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
15/27, 191 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
19/33, 169 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-18.6 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Curtis Samuel banked 4.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 13.3 | −1.2 | 68% | 75% | 13% | 0% | 18 car, 72 yd · 3/3, 31 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.5 | +0.3 | 68% | 82% | 26% | 22% | 5/6, 65 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 10.0 | +1.7 | 80% | 80% | 19% | 35% | 3/6, 70 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | +0.5 | 86% | 85% | 22% | 17% | 5/7, 48 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +4.8 | 60% | 75% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 18 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | −8.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/33, 169 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.6 | −1.8 | 72% | 82% | 30% | 51% | 1 car, 1 yd · 4/7, 55 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −10.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 191 yd · 3 car, 2 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −4.1 | 59% | 63% | 22% | 14% | 1 car, 3 yd · 5/7, 20 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −2.1 | 34% | 25% | 0% | — | 15 car, 57 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 3.7 | −6.2 | 77% | 70% | 9% | 2% | 10 car, 8 yd · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.1 | 46% | 60% | 9% | 6% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.5 | 26% | 18% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.7 | 66% | 82% | 9% | 14% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 13 yd |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −4.7 | 25% | 25% | 9% | 9% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Troy HairstonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 66% | 55% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 25% | 28% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 38% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 51% | 25% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:24 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at HOU 32 · gained nothing · -8.58 EP · −21.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 85 yards from the WAS 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Commanders6
Texans0Commanders7Texans0Commanders13Texans0Commanders14Texans0Commanders17Texans0Commanders20Texans0Commanders20Texans3Commanders23Texans3Commanders23Texans9Commanders23Texans10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 15/27 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Curtis Samuel |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 26% | +2.8 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 30% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Curl | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 19/33 | 169 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −18.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_11_WAS_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 18 |
| 9.0 |
| 1 |
| +2.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +2.7 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9% | −0.6 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.9 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Bostic | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davis Mills | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 22% | +0.3 |
| Chris Moore | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 22% | −2.7 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −0.7 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −1.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond King | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| M.J. Stewart | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
