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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q4 1:03, 2nd and 4, on Kendall Fuller — 51.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, Commanders +51.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:03 · 2nd and 4
Kendall Fuller
Commanders
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
51.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
John Bates's 16-yard touchdown catch with 4:09 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
John Bates16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinicke · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+610–167 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 55 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Commanders’s 59 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Commanders 3.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's blitz rate sent, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
WAS's play-action rate, 43.5%, is past their previous high of 37.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-18.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 55 snaps
Commanders-14.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Falcons45.5%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 44 early downs
Commanders30.4%leaned — ran early · −18.6 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 66%
Tendencies room →Falcons50.0%leaned — faked the run · +14.4 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Commanders43.5%leaned — faked the run · +22.8 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.89× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Falcons33.3%right on their number · +8.5 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders33.3%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Falcons21.7%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Commanders3.8%leaned — sat back · −17.2 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Falcons8.7%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Commanders15.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
WAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 43.5%, 22.8 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.9 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
15/25, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
14/23, 138 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.4 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · ATL
5/8 for 91 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brian Robinson banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 20.5 | +6.8 | 48% | 35% | 14% | 3% | 18 car, 105 yd · 2/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | +2.0 | 74% | 85% | 33% | 59% | 5/8, 91 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 174 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 49 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 11.4 | +1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 138 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| John BatesTE · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | +1.9 | 58% | 52% | 18% | 22% | 3/4, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 10.1 | −6.9 | 58% | 62% | 21% | 11% | 11 car, 52 yd · 3/5, 19 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −1.6 | 82% | 83% | 27% | 45% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/6, 48 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +2.7 | 56% | 42% | 13% | 8% | 2/3, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −0.5 | 42% | 61% | 14% | 4% | 9 car, 32 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 5.4 | 0.0 | 39% | 35% | 0% | — | 11 car, 54 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −0.8 | 86% | 96% | 17% | 8% | 2/4, 29 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.5 | 23% | 17% | 5% | 11% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.0 | 39% | 50% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Caleb HuntleyRB | 2.3 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 2.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | 0.0 | 61% | 50% | 8% | 8% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.5 | 71% | 87% | 14% | 0% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.3 | 60% | 61% | 0% | — | 4 car, 13 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 32% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 61% | 61% | 5% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
Q4 1:03 · Falcons · 2nd & goal at WAS 4 · gained nothing · -4.89 EP · −43.5% win probability
143 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 131. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 80 yards from the ATL 16 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons3
Commanders0Falcons3Commanders6Falcons3Commanders7Falcons9Commanders7Falcons10Commanders7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Falcons10Commanders10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons10Commanders16Falcons13Commanders16Falcons13Commanders19How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/25 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Marcus Mariota |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 5 | 8 | 91 | 0 | 33% | +1.0 |
| Drake London | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykal Walker | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Rashaan Evans | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren Hall |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 14/23 | 138 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_ATL_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 49 |
| 8.2 |
| 0 |
| +3.4 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| 17% |
| +0.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 21% | −5.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −0.0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Malone | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 0 | +5.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Jonathan Williams | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 27% | +3.3 |
| John Bates | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 18% | +1.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 14% | −0.2 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 14% | +1.6 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Forrest | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Holmes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Bostic | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
