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Atlanta Falcons 13 at Washington Commanders 19. Final.
Commanders -3.5 ✓U 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 12
Washington Commanders 19, Falcons 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:03, 2nd and 4, on Kendall Fuller — 51.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:03 · 2nd and 4
Kendall Fuller
Commanders
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Washington Commanders 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, Commanders +51.2% win probability on one snap.
51.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Olamide ZaccheausFalconsQ4 3:44(3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 25 for 45 yards (22-D.Forrest).
14.6pts
Tyler AllgeierFalconsQ4 1:15(1:15) 74-G.Ifedi reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to WAS 5 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 59-J.Bostic). PENALTY on WAS-90-M.Sweat, Defensive Offside, 3 yards, enforced at WAS 5 - No Play.
10.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Falcons145 of 156 plays carry both curves
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
Swing +51.2 for CommandersExpected points +4.89 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:03ATL +51% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
4th · 3:44WAS +15% win prob(3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 25 for 45 yards (22-D.Forrest).
4th · 1:15WAS +10% win prob(1:15) 74-G.Ifedi reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to WAS 5 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 59-J.Bostic). PENALTY on WAS-90-M.Sweat, Defensive Offside, 3 yards, enforced at WAS 5 - No Play.
3rd · 4:09WAS +9% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 87-J.Bates for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:02ATL +9% win prob(:02) 7-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
2nd · 9:30WAS +8% win prob(9:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left end to WAS 10 for 15 yards (34-C.Holmes; 22-D.Forrest). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Face Mask, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 10.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
John Bates's 16-yard touchdown catch with 4:09 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:12Younghoe Koo·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–0
1st3:53Brian Robinson·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+73–7
2nd8:32MyCole Pruitt·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+710–7
2nd1:54Joey Slye·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+310–10
3rd4:09John Bates·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+610–16
3rd1:22Younghoe Koo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+313–16
4th9:10Joey Slye·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+313–19
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryCommanders
Falcons3–5Commanders
332Total yards315
6.0Yards per play5.3
47%Success rate53%
40%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays5
16First downs19
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Falcons: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.12Commanders: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Falcons: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Falcons: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.14Commanders: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 55 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Commanders’s 59 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Commanders 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's blitz rate sent, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
WAS's play-action rate, 43.5%, is past their previous high of 37.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Commanders15.4%
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 43.5%, 22.8 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.9 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%57 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%57 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%57 snaps
66Colby GossettG · Every snap100%57 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%57 snaps
1Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time86%49 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation74%42 snaps
46Parker HesseTE · Heavy rotation61%35 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Heavy rotation58%33 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass−43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
Q4 1:03 · Falcons · 2nd & goal at WAS 4 · gained nothing · -4.89 EP · −43.5% win probability
143 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 131. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 80 yards from the ATL 16 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
646
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1745%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.2252%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3533%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3643%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.2636%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.4067%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.4014%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Falcons3Commanders0
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 29
Falcons3Commanders6
Falcons3Commanders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Falcons 14
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 32
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt1 play
Falcons9Commanders7
Falcons10Commanders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Commanders 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
Falcons10Commanders10
Field goal15 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Falcons 12
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Commanders 40
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Falcons 40
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Falcons 12
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Falcons10Commanders16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Falcons 16
Falcons13Commanders16
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 37
4th quarter41 plays
Falcons13Commanders19
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Falcons 27
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 46
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Commanders 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -3.5
Closing total
40.5
Falcons moneyline
+163
Commanders moneyline
-183
Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the south; 0.15 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Ron Rivera
2nd · 8:32WAS +8% win prob(8:32) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 85-M.Pruitt for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:45WAS +8% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at ATL 35 for 13 yards. WAS-53-T.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. 53-T.Turner Ankle injury
