2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · FedExField

Atlanta Falcons

Washington CommandersWinner

WAS -3.5 ✓U 40.5 ✓Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Washington Commanders 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, ATL +51% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:03ATL 13 — WAS 19ATL ball · 2nd & 4ATL 54%

(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:03ATL +51% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller (94-D.Payne) at WAS -2. Touchback.
Q4 · 3:44WAS +15% win prob(3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 25 for 45 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Q4 · 1:15WAS +10% win prob(1:15) 74-G.Ifedi reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to WAS 5 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 59-J.Bostic). PENALTY on WAS-90-M.Sweat, Defensive Offside, 3 yards, enforced at WAS 5 - No Play.
Q3 · 4:09WAS +9% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 87-J.Bates for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:12ATL Field goal
(8:12) 7-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — WAS 0
Q1 · 3:53WAS Touchdown
(3:53) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 8-B.Robinson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — WAS 7
Q2 · 8:32ATL Touchdown
(8:32) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 85-M.Pruitt for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — WAS 7
Q2 · 1:54WAS Field goal
(1:54) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — WAS 10
Q3 · 4:09WAS Touchdown
(4:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 87-J.Bates for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — WAS 16
Q3 · 1:22ATL Field goal
(1:22) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 13 — WAS 16
Q4 · 9:10WAS Field goal
(9:10) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on ATL-28-M.Ford, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: ATL 13 — WAS 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Commanders
Offensive plays	55	59
Total yards	332 (edge)	315
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	47%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.14
Third downs	4/10	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

15/25, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

14/23, 138 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

18 att, 105 yds, 0 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

11 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Olamide ZaccheausWR

5/8 for 91 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

4/6 for 48 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	12	46	6:53	Field goal +3
2	WAS	WAS 26	9	74	4:21	Touchdown +7
3	ATL	ATL 21	6	23	1:32	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 18	6	15	2:20	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 23	12	87	6:28	Touchdown +7
6	WAS	WAS 29	15	59	6:36	Field goal +3
7	ATL	ATL 15	6	32	1:26	Turnover on downs
8	WAS	ATL 47	1	0	0:10	Interception
9	ATL	ATL 44	3	16	0:14	Missed field goal
10	WAS	WAS 25	8	35	3:14	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 5	4	7	1:30	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 40	12	60	6:13	Touchdown +6
13	ATL	ATL 25	9	45	2:46	Field goal +3
14	WAS	WAS 25	12	58	7:12	Field goal +3
15	ATL	ATL 25	5	-1	1:57	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 40	4	6	2:05	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 16	10	77	4:05	Interception
18	WAS	WAS 20	4	8	0:58	End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 87 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	15/25	174	1	1	1	-4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	11	54	4.9	2.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	11	52	4.7	-0.5
Marcus Mariota	6	49	8.2	3.4
Caleb Huntley	1	12	12.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Olamide Zaccheaus	5	8	91	0	33%	1.0
Drake London	2	4	29	0	17%	0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	5	19	0	21%	-5.6
Anthony Firkser	1	1	16	0	4%	1.1
MyCole Pruitt	2	3	9	1	13%	0.4
Parker Hesse	1	2	9	0	8%	-0.0
Caleb Huntley	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Mykal Walker	1	8	1	2
Rashaan Evans	4	5	0	0
Darren Hall	3	5	0	0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	1	5	0	0
Richie Grant	2	4	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	3	0	0
Troy Andersen	1	3	0	0
Lorenzo Carter	2	1	0	0
Dee Alford	1	1	0	0
DeAngelo Malone	1	1	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	14/23	138	2	1	0	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	18	105	5.8	5.6
Antonio Gibson	9	32	3.6	-1.5
Jonathan Williams	4	22	5.5	1.3
Curtis Samuel	4	13	3.3	-0.6
Terry McLaurin	1	5	5.0	0.1
Taylor Heinicke	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	4	6	48	0	27%	3.3
John Bates	3	4	24	1	18%	1.3
Antonio Gibson	3	3	22	0	14%	-0.2
Brian Robinson	2	3	20	1	14%	1.6
Dyami Brown	1	1	17	0	5%	2.0
Logan Thomas	1	3	7	0	14%	-1.1
Cole Turner	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.7
Jahan Dotson	0	1	0	0	5%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darrick Forrest	7	3	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	5	4	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	5	2	0.0	0
Daron Payne	2	3	0.0	1
Montez Sweat	2	2	1.0	0
Jonathan Allen	1	2	0.0	0
Casey Toohill	1	1	0.0	0
Christian Holmes	1	1	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	1	1	0.0	0
Jon Bostic	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -3.5
Closing total: 40.5
ATL moneyline: +163
WAS moneyline: -183

Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: ATL 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Ron Rivera