For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore27
BY 1final margin
JaguarsJacksonville28
Baltimore Ravens 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 28. Final.
Ravens -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Ravens 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 1st and 10, on Justin Tucker — 46.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 1st and 10
Justin Tucker
Jaguars
(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
O 43 ✓
18.6 mph wind
Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Jaguars +46.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
46.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Gus EdwardsJaguarsQ4 5:49(5:49) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to BAL 10 for 4 yards (42-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (42-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by JAX-32-T.Campbell at BAL 16.
29.8pts
DeSean JacksonRavensQ4 4:04(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-D.Jackson to JAX 23 for 62 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
32.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.60 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 13 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Ravens168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Swing +46.5 for JaguarsExpected points +0.71 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 5 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02BAL +47% win prob(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
4th · 4:04JAX +32% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-D.Jackson to JAX 23 for 62 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
4th · 5:49BAL +30% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to BAL 10 for 4 yards (42-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (42-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by JAX-32-T.Campbell at BAL 16.
4th · 0:14JAX +29% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-T.Lawrence pass to 7-Z.Jones is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:18JAX +23% win prob(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 10:03JAX +16% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 22-J.Hasty for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marvin Jones's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:18 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:28Justin Tucker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–0
1st2:08Justin Tucker·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+36–0
4th0:18Marvin Jones·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point goodLead never changed again+827–28
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryJaguars
Ravens7–1Jaguars
418Total yards334
6.1Yards per play5.4
49%Success rate40%
57%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
24First downs18
1Sacks taken4
3Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Ravens: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.05Jaguars: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Ravens: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.34Jaguars: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Ravens: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.60Jaguars: −0.60 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 68 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Jaguars 5.
NoteRavens outgained Jaguars 418-334 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's play-action rate, 51.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 44.0% in week 9.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 11.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
JAX's blitz rate sent, 5.4%, is past their previous low of 11.4% in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteBAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 51.4%, 26.7 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 2.0 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Justin Tucker−41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 0:02 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at JAX 49 · gained nothing · -0.71 EP · −41.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1978%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR26+0.2338%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.1140%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.04100%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.2050%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0143%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Ravens3Jaguars0
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 10
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to midfield
Ravens6Jaguars0
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 11
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 29 to midfield
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Ravens6Jaguars6
Ravens6Jaguars7
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens9Jaguars7
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 37
Ravens9Jaguars10
Field goal17 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Ravens12Jaguars10
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Jaguars 5
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 2 to the Ravens 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 33
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter58 plays
Ravens18Jaguars10
Ravens19Jaguars10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens19Jaguars16
Ravens19Jaguars17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Ravens19Jaguars20
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 11
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Ravens25Jaguars20
Ravens27Jaguars20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 11
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Ravens27Jaguars26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Ravens27Jaguars28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 10
No good3 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Jaguars 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
