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2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

27

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

28

BAL -3.5 upsetO 43 ✓19 mph wind

Jacksonville Jaguars 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, BAL +47% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 0:02BAL 27 — JAX 28BAL ball · 1st & 10JAX 53%

(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02BAL +47% win prob(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
  2. Q4 · 4:04JAX +32% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-D.Jackson to JAX 23 for 62 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
  3. Q4 · 5:49BAL +30% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to BAL 10 for 4 yards (42-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (42-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by JAX-32-T.Campbell at BAL 16.
  4. Q4 · 0:14JAX +29% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-T.Lawrence pass to 7-Z.Jones is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:28BAL Field goal

    (9:28) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — JAX 0
  2. Q1 · 2:08BAL Field goal

    (2:08) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 6 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 10:03JAX Touchdown

    (10:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 22-J.Hasty for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 6 — JAX 7
  4. Q2 · 4:56BAL Field goal

    (4:56) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 9 — JAX 7
  5. Q2 · 0:14JAX Field goal

    (:14) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: BAL 9 — JAX 10
  6. Q3 · 7:56BAL Field goal

    (7:56) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 12 — JAX 10
  7. Q4 · 13:13BAL Touchdown

    (13:13) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 19 — JAX 10
  8. Q4 · 5:59JAX Touchdown

    (5:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 19 — JAX 17
  9. Q4 · 4:22JAX Field goal

    (4:22) 10-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: BAL 19 — JAX 20
  10. Q4 · 2:10BAL Touchdown

    (2:10) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — JAX 20
  11. Q4 · 0:18JAX Touchdown

    (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — JAX 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensJaguars
Offensive plays6862
Total yards418 (edge)334
Yards per play6.1 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.05
Success rate49% (edge)40%
Dropback rate56%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.320.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.15 (edge)-0.60
Third downs8/14 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)18
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers31 (edge)

Ravens outgained Jaguars 418–334 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

29/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.9 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/32, 254 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.0 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

16 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Zay JonesWR

11/14 for 145 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Josh OliverTE

4/6 for 76 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 2512705:37Field goal +3
2JAXJAX 257253:22Turnover on downs
3BAL508383:58Field goal +3
4JAXJAX 25551:12Punt
5BALBAL 207303:59Fumble
6JAX505501:55Touchdown +7
7BALBAL 2513385:06Field goal +3
8JAXJAX 2513714:42Field goal +3
9BALBAL 29200:09End of half
10JAXJAX 25571:40Punt
11BALBAL 2010745:29Field goal +3
12JAXJAX 25591:42Punt
13BALBAL 29403:25Punt
14JAXJAX 20452:25Fumble
15BALJAX 258252:12Touchdown +7
16JAXJAX 2516757:12Touchdown +7
17BALBAL 6240:13Fumble
18JAXBAL 16451:23Field goal +3
19BALBAL 258872:17Touchdown +8
20JAXJAX 2512821:48Touchdown +8
21BALBAL 393120:14Missed field goal

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 87 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson16/322541018.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson14896.404.0
Gus Edwards16523.31-5.1
Devin Duvernay2168.001.8
Justice Hill133.00-0.5
Kenyan Drake221.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Oliver4676120%6.5
DeSean Jackson2374010%5.8
Mark Andrews4750023%1.8
Devin Duvernay3523017%-1.1
Demarcus Robinson1417013%-0.7
Patrick Ricard2314010%-0.6
Gus Edwards01003%-0.5
Kenyan Drake01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith530.000
Chuck Clark430.000
Marcus Peters520.000
Patrick Queen420.001
Broderick Washington321.000
Brandon Stephens500.000
Marlon Humphrey231.000
Tyus Bowser211.000
Geno Stone300.000
Calais Campbell211.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence29/3732130414.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamycal Hasty12282.30-5.4
Snoop Conner3113.70-0.7
Travis Etienne231.50-0.8
Trevor Lawrence210.50-3.9
Christian Kirk1-5-5.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Jones1114145038%13.5
Jamycal Hasty5567114%7.3
Christian Kirk4946024%-3.4
Jamal Agnew5537114%2.9
Marvin Jones332218%3.2
Evan Engram11403%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun950.000
Chad Muma450.000
Rayshawn Jenkins420.000
Josh Hines-Allen230.000
Andre Cisco310.002
Andrew Wingard120.000
Davon Hamilton121.000
Devin Lloyd210.000
Darious Williams210.000
Adam Gotsis110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Closing total
43
BAL moneyline
-164
JAX moneyline
+147

Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 55 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
77°F, wind 19 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
BAL 7 days · JAX 14 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Doug Pederson

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.