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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q4 0:02, 1st and 10, on Justin Tucker — 46.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Jaguars +46.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 1st and 10
Justin Tucker
Jaguars
(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
46.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.60 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 13 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marvin Jones's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:18 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Marvin Jones10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point goodLead never changed again+827–2811 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryJaguars
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 68 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Jaguars 5.
Ravens outgained Jaguars 418-334 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BAL's play-action rate, 51.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent, 5.4%, is past their previous low of 11.4% in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 67 snaps
Jaguars-1.2 ptsright on their number · −1.3 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Ravens55.8%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 52 early downs
Jaguars62.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens51.4%leaned — faked the run · +26.7 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Jaguars11.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.5%.
Jaguars28.6%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±23.3 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Ravens23.8%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jaguars5.4%leaned — sat back · −15.2 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Ravens14.0%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars7.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
BAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 51.4%, 26.7 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 2.0 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
29/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.9 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
16/32, 254 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.0 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Trevor Lawrence banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.5 | +6.9 | 90% | 93% | 38% | 52% | 11/14, 145 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 24.9 | +9.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/37, 321 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | −7.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/32, 254 yd, 1 TD · 14 car, 89 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.5 | +2.7 | 78% | 81% | 14% | 7% | 12 car, 28 yd · 5/5, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh OliverTE · Featured Receiver | 17.6 | +3.5 | 61% | 61% | 20% | 21% | 4/6, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +4.7 | 24% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 5/5, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +6.6 | 60% | 67% | 8% | 7% | 3/3, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | −4.6 | 85% | 95% | 23% | 26% | 4/7, 50 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +4.7 | 14% | 18% | 10% | 22% | 2/3, 74 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | −4.2 | 50% | 34% | 3% | 1% | 16 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Featured Receiver | 8.1 | −7.1 | 90% | 95% | 24% | 26% | 1 car, -5 yd · 4/9, 46 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −3.5 | 78% | 79% | 17% | 15% | 2 car, 16 yd · 3/5, 23 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB · Receiving Back | 3.4 | −0.6 | 74% | 63% | 10% | 0% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −4.6 | 60% | 66% | 13% | 15% | 1/4, 17 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 81% | 81% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Snoop ConnerRB | 1.1 | −0.3 | 16% | 14% | 0% | — | 3 car, 11 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 0.3 | −0.6 | 19% | 24% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB | 0.3 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenyan DrakeRB | 0.2 | −2.1 | 25% | 32% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 2 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick BoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) 9-J.Tucker 67 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 0:02 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at JAX 49 · gained nothing · -0.71 EP · −41.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens3
Jaguars0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Ravens6Jaguars0How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens6Jaguars6Ravens6Jaguars7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens9Jaguars7Ravens9Jaguars10How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Ravens12Jaguars10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Ravens18Jaguars10Ravens19Jaguars10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens19Jaguars16Ravens19Jaguars17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Ravens19Jaguars20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens25Jaguars20Ravens27Jaguars20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Ravens27Jaguars26Ravens27Jaguars28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/32 | 254 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 | −5.1 |
| Devin Duvernay |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Oliver | 4 | 6 | 76 | 1 | 20% | +6.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 74 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 29/37 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +14.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_BAL_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 55 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 18.6 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 2 |
| 16 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.8 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| +5.8 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 23% | +1.8 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 17% | −1.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 13% | −0.7 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Broderick Washington | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyus Bowser | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Snoop Conner | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 11 | 14 | 145 | 0 | 38% | +13.5 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 | 14% | +7.3 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 24% | −3.4 |
| Jamal Agnew | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 14% | +2.9 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 8% | +3.2 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Muma | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Wingard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
