For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 23.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bills178 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 39 for 36 yards (5-D.Elliott).
Swing −17.5 for LionsExpected points −1.65 for LionsThe model had Lions 13 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:23DET +17% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 39 for 36 yards (5-D.Elliott).
4th · 2:44DET +14% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:45DET +13% win prob(:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).
4th · 13:52DET +12% win prob(13:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 4-D.Chark for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:37DET +11% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 32 for 15 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 33 for 14 yards (21-J.Poyer).
3rd · 2:00BUF +10% win prob(2:00) 17-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 45-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd1:55Amon-Ra St. Brown·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+714–14
2nd0:05Tyler Bass·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+317–14
3rd9:11Ed Oliver·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+219–14
4th13:52D.J. Chark·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · two-point good+819–22
4th2:44Stefon Diggs·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allenfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide left+625–22
4th0:28Michael Badgley·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+325–25
4th0:07Tyler Bass·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+328–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryLions
Bills7–1Lions
401Total yards328
5.4Yards per play4.8
49%Success rate46%
58%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays4
26First downs21
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Bills: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Bills: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Bills: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.11Lions: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 74 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Lions’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Lions 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.1% in week 11 against 23.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
DET's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 11 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.4% in week 11 against 59.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.0% in week 11 against 66.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions16.0%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 9.1 points above their season mean of 14.0% and 1.5 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Amon-Ra St. Brown+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Q4 0:45 · Lions · 4th & 1 at BUF 49 · gained 7 · +2.06 EP · +23.1% win probability
176 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 90 yards from the BUF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65+0.1060%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1264%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1050%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0475%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2833%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0640%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 22
Bills0Lions6
Bills0Lions7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Bills 2
Bills6Lions7
Bills7Lions7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Lions 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 36
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Bills 41
Bills13Lions7
Bills14Lions7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Lions 3
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bills14Lions13
Bills14Lions14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Bills 1
Bills17Lions14
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Lions 20
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Lions 10
Bills19Lions14
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Lions 47
No good9 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Bills 11
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 21
4th quarter59 plays
Bills19Lions20
Bills19Lions22
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 1
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 47
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Lions 44
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bills25Lions22
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Lions 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Bills25Lions25
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bills 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bills28Lions25
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Lions 27
Fumble lost1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -10
Closing total
54
Bills moneyline
-412
Lions moneyline
+342
Bills closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 54; the game landed 53 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bills 4 days · Lions 4 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Dan Campbell
2nd · 1:55
DET +10% win prob
(1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:02BUF +10% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone (44-M.Rodriguez) [96-I.Buggs] at DET 4. 34-A.Anzalone to DET 8 for 4 yards (26-D.Singletary).
