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2022 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 24, 2022 · Ford Field

Buffalo BillsWinner

28

Detroit Lions

25

BUF -10 no coverU 54 ✓Dome

Buffalo Bills 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:23, DET +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑BUF ↓
Q4 · 0:23BUF 25 — DET 25BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 67%

(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 39 for 36 yards (5-D.Elliott).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:23DET +17% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 39 for 36 yards (5-D.Elliott).
  2. Q4 · 2:44DET +14% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:45DET +13% win prob(:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).
  4. Q4 · 13:52DET +12% win prob(13:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 4-D.Chark for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:47DET Touchdown

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 0 — DET 7
  2. Q1 · 2:04BUF Touchdown

    (2:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 6-I.McKenzie for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — DET 7
  3. Q2 · 8:00BUF Touchdown

    (8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen to DET 8 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at DET 8. 17-J.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 1:55DET Touchdown

    (1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — DET 14
  5. Q2 · 0:05BUF Field goal

    (:05) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 17 — DET 14
  6. Q3 · 9:11BUF Safety

    (9:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (91-E.Oliver).

    Score after this play: BUF 19 — DET 14
  7. Q4 · 13:52DET Touchdown

    (13:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 4-D.Chark for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: BUF 19 — DET 22
  8. Q4 · 2:44BUF Touchdown

    (2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BUF 25 — DET 22
  9. Q4 · 0:28DET Field goal

    (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: BUF 25 — DET 25
  10. Q4 · 0:07BUF Field goal

    (:07) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 28 — DET 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsLions
Offensive plays7468
Total yards401 (edge)328
Yards per play5.4 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play0.10 (edge)0.04
Success rate49% (edge)46%
Dropback rate68%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.060.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.19 (edge)-0.11
Third downs7/12 (edge)6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)21
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/42, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/37, 240 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

8.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

14 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

9/10 for 122 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Isaiah McKenzieWR

6/10 for 96 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 24500:58Punt
2BUFBUF 19431:01Punt
3DETDET 3913536:17Touchdown +7
4BUFBUF 2512754:46Touchdown +7
5DETDET 288313:35Fumble
6BUFBUF 4211585:28Touchdown +7
7DETDET 2417716:03Touchdown +7
8BUFBUF 2511471:52Field goal +3
9BUFBUF 2511565:05Interception
10DETDET 83-80:50Safety
11BUFBUF 356102:20Punt
12DETDET 149754:48Missed field goal
13BUFBUF 20401:01Punt
14DETBUF 356242:09Touchdown +8
15BUFBUF 2510223:13Punt
16DETDET 96351:35Punt
17BUFBUF 1015826:19Touchdown +6
18DETDET 2511472:17Field goal +3
19BUFBUF 255480:21Field goal +3
20DET—100:02Fumble

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen24/42253213-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen10787.818.1
Devin Singletary14725.101.9
Isaiah McKenzie273.50-0.6
James Cook242.00-0.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines133.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah McKenzie61096126%5.0
Stefon Diggs81577138%-5.1
Gabe Davis4538013%4.2
Dawson Knox221705%1.0
James Cook2514013%-0.8
Devin Singletary11803%0.8
Quintin Morris11303%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer620.000
A.J. Klein530.000
Matt Milano330.001
Dane Jackson510.001
Ed Oliver321.000
Damar Hamlin230.000
DaQuan Jones321.000
Christian Benford220.000
Taron Johnson300.000
Reggie Gilliam110.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/372402025.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams18663.71-4.5
D'Andre Swift5193.801.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown177.002.1
Justin Jackson441.00-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown910122129%11.6
Kalif Raymond4635017%-0.2
D'Andre Swift4824023%-2.3
James Mitchell112203%1.4
D.J. Chark2516114%-0.7
Justin Jackson121506%0.8
Brock Wright23609%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
DeShon Elliott440.000
Jerry Jacobs600.001
Alex Anzalone420.011
Malcolm Rodriguez320.001
Kerby Joseph230.000
Isaiah Buggs220.000
Will Harris400.000
Alim McNeill130.000
Mike Hughes130.001
Derrick Barnes210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -10
Closing total
54
BUF moneyline
-412
DET moneyline
+342

Bills closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 54; the game landed 53 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
BUF 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Dan Campbell