2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Chicago Bears

New York JetsWinner

NYJ -8.5 ✓O 36.5 ✓Jets closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 21.

New York Jets 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:09, NYJ +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:09CHI 10 — NYJ 13NYJ ball · 1st & 10NYJ 63%

(5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:09NYJ +15% win prob(5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:34NYJ +11% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle to 8-E.Moore to CHI 21 for 42 yards (4-E.Jackson).
Q2 · 14:24NYJ +9% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:03NYJ +7% win prob(1:03) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 10-C.Claypool pushed ob at NYJ 9 for 31 yards (1-A.Gardner). Penalty on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:17NYJ Touchdown
(10:17) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right to 17-G.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-22-K.Vildor, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 0 — NYJ 7
Q1 · 6:02CHI Field goal
(6:02) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 3 — NYJ 7
Q2 · 14:24CHI Touchdown
(14:24) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NYJ 7
Q2 · 5:09NYJ Touchdown
(5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NYJ 14
Q2 · 0:17NYJ Field goal
(:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NYJ 17
Q3 · 6:41NYJ Touchdown
(6:41) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NYJ 24
Q3 · 2:36NYJ Touchdown
(2:36) 25-T.Johnson left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NYJ 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Jets
Offensive plays	55	60
Total yards	293	467 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	38%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	51%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.49 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	4/13	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	14	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Mike WhiteQB

22/28, 315 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.5 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Trevor SiemianQB

14/25, 179 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

14 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Zonovan KnightRB

14 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

5/8 for 95 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Chase ClaypoolWR

2/5 for 51 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	75	4:48	Touchdown +7
2	CHI	CHI 25	10	71	4:13	Field goal +3
3	NYJ	NYJ 16	5	5	1:48	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 29	10	71	4:51	Touchdown +7
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	57	4:58	Turnover on downs
6	CHI	CHI 18	4	9	2:11	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 22	5	78	2:14	Touchdown +7
8	CHI	CHI 25	5	8	1:18	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 27	9	39	3:27	Field goal +3
10	CHI	CHI 25	2	0	0:12	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 25	5	-3	1:39	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 37	4	6	1:33	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 1	5	13	1:49	Punt
14	NYJ	NYJ 47	7	53	3:24	Touchdown +7
15	CHI	CHI 25	6	19	2:16	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 21	5	79	1:51	Touchdown +7
17	CHI	CHI 25	14	58	6:25	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 27	7	38	2:58	Missed field goal
19	CHI	CHI 43	8	47	3:01	Interception
20	NYJ	NYJ 3	9	37	5:04	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 79 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	14/25	179	1	1	2	-7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	14	79	5.6	3.1
Darrynton Evans	9	34	3.8	2.1
Trevor Siemian	4	8	2.0	-0.9
Velus Jones	2	6	3.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chase Claypool	2	5	51	0	21%	-1.4
David Montgomery	3	4	34	0	17%	1.8
Darrynton Evans	1	1	33	0	4%	2.6
Cole Kmet	3	6	27	0	25%	-6.1
Byron Pringle	2	2	12	1	8%	3.3
Dante Pettis	1	2	12	0	8%	-0.5
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	2	7	0	8%	-1.8
Trevon Wesco	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.5
Khari Blasingame	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jack Sanborn	4	5	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	5	2	0.0	1
DeAndre Houston-Carson	4	3	0.0	0
Nicholas Morrow	2	5	0.0	0
Elijah Hicks	3	3	0.0	0
Kindle Vildor	1	3	0.0	1
Mike Pennel	1	2	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	2	1	0.0	1
Matthew Adams	2	1	0.0	0
Armon Watts	2	1	1.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike White	22/28	315	3	0	1	17.5
Braden Mann	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zonovan Knight	14	69	4.9	0	0.2
Ty Johnson	5	62	12.4	1	3.8
Michael Carter	6	21	3.5	0	-1.2
Braxton Berrios	2	9	4.5	0	-0.3
Mike White	3	2	0.7	0	-0.7
Garrett Wilson	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8
Elijah Moore	1	-4	-4.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	5	8	95	2	29%	8.1
Elijah Moore	2	2	64	1	7%	6.6
Tyler Conklin	3	3	50	0	11%	3.5
Zonovan Knight	3	3	34	0	11%	1.5
C.J. Uzomah	3	3	17	0	11%	1.2
Ty Johnson	1	2	16	0	7%	-0.4
Michael Carter	2	2	15	0	7%	0.4
Denzel Mims	1	1	11	0	4%	0.3
Corey Davis	1	3	9	0	11%	-1.9
Braxton Berrios	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	3	7	0.0	1	1
D.J. Reed	3	2	0.0	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	2	3	0.0	0	1
Quincy Williams	3	2	0.0	0	0
Kwon Alexander	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	1	2	0.5	0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	2	0.5	0	0
Ahmad Gardner	1	2	0.0	0	0
Solomon Thomas	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -8.5
Closing total: 36.5
CHI moneyline: +315
NYJ moneyline: -375

Jets closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 41 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CHI 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Robert Saleh