For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bears147 of 157 plays carry both curves
(5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.6 for JetsExpected points +4.62 for JetsThe model had Bears 16 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:09NYJ +15% win prob(5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:34NYJ +11% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle to 8-E.Moore to CHI 21 for 42 yards (4-E.Jackson).
2nd · 14:24NYJ +9% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:03NYJ +7% win prob(1:03) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 10-C.Claypool pushed ob at NYJ 9 for 31 yards (1-A.Gardner). Penalty on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 8:14NYJ +7% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 21-D.Evans to NYJ 9 for 33 yards (57-C.Mosley).
1st · 10:17NYJ +7% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right to 17-G.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-22-K.Vildor, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Garrett Wilson's 54-yard touchdown catch with 5:09 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:17Garrett Wilson·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Whitefrom Mike White+70–7
1st6:02Cairo Santos·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+33–7
Jets ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.25Jets: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Bears: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.49Jets: +0.49 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Bears: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 55 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Jets 5.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · +1.9 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jets14.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.3%, 18.3 points below their season mean of 56.6% and 1.4 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.White pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:09 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 46 · gained 54 · +4.62 EP · +15.9% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, manual charting on 131. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 79 yards from the NYJ 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
758
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0859%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31+0.2845%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3656%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1356%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2722%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bears0Jets6
Bears0Jets7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bears 8
Bears3Jets7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Jets 4
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 21
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Jets 9
2nd quarter44 plays
Bears9Jets7
Bears10Jets7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bears 18
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 27
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bears10Jets13
Bears10Jets14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 46
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
Bears10Jets17
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Bears 38
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 43
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 1 to the Bears 21
Bears10Jets23
Bears10Jets24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Bears 22
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 44
Bears10Jets30
Bears10Jets31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Bears 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
4th quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Jets 27
No good7 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Bears 35
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Jets 10
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 3 to the Jets 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -8.5
Closing total
36.5
Bears moneyline
+315
Jets moneyline
-375
Jets closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 41 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; 0.24 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Bears 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Robert Saleh
2nd · 9:25
CHI +6% win prob
(9:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-B.Mann to CHI 26 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 26. 7-B.Mann pass incomplete short right [36-D.Houston-Carson].
2nd · 13:36NYJ +5% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to NYJ 36 for 7 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 22-K.Vildor).
