2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Nissan Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Tennessee Titans

CIN -1 ✓U 43 ✓Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.

Cincinnati Bengals 20–16. Biggest swing: Q2 11:30, TEN +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:30CIN 3 — TEN 9TEN ball · 1st & 10CIN 54%

(11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:30TEN +20% win prob(11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:35TEN +19% win prob(2:35) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to CIN 24 for 51 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on CIN-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at CIN 24.
Q2 · 2:48TEN +13% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 32-T.Williams to TEN 7 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q4 · 13:47TEN +12% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:10TEN Field goal
(14:10) 11-C.Shudak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: CIN 0 — TEN 3
Q2 · 11:35CIN Field goal
(11:35) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 3
Q2 · 11:30TEN Touchdown
(11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 10
Q2 · 2:00CIN Touchdown
(2:00) 34-S.Perine right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — TEN 10
Q3 · 2:38CIN Field goal
(2:38) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 13 — TEN 10
Q3 · 0:42TEN Field goal
(:42) 11-C.Shudak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: CIN 13 — TEN 13
Q4 · 13:47CIN Touchdown
(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 20 — TEN 13
Q4 · 6:11TEN Field goal
(6:11) 11-C.Shudak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: CIN 20 — TEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Titans
Offensive plays	62	56
Total yards	378 (edge)	344
Yards per play	6.1	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	45% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	68%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	5/13	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

22/34, 291 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

22/37, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

17 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

17 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-5.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

7/9 for 114 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

3/3 for 79 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	9	31	3:10	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 18	8	41	4:24	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 4	4	3	0:50	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 40	4	1	1:28	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 10	4	-3	2:01	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 46	10	39	4:01	Field goal +3
7	CIN	CIN 25	8	47	2:36	Field goal +3
8	TEN	TEN 25	3	69	0:15	Turnover on downs +7
9	CIN	CIN 24	5	9	2:06	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 31	4	1	1:40	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 8	10	92	5:34	Touchdown +7
12	TEN	TEN 25	11	68	1:51	Missed field goal
13	CIN	CIN 25	1	0	0:04	End of half
14	TEN	TEN 18	5	-6	1:22	Punt
15	CIN	TEN 45	4	9	2:02	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 10	7	19	3:42	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 20	14	58	5:19	Field goal +3
18	TEN	TEN 25	6	57	1:56	Field goal +3
19	CIN	CIN 25	8	70	1:57	Touchdown +7
20	TEN	TEN 25	13	55	7:35	Field goal +3
21	CIN	CIN 25	13	62	6:07	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	22/37	270	1	0	1	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Samaje Perine	17	58	3.4	1	-0.9
Joe Burrow	9	32	3.6	0	-1.5
Trayveon Williams	2	18	9.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	7	9	114	1	25%	9.0
Hayden Hurst	6	9	57	0	25%	0.3
Samaje Perine	4	7	35	0	19%	-1.5
Trayveon Williams	1	1	24	0	3%	2.9
Trenton Irwin	1	4	16	0	11%	0.3
Tyler Boyd	2	4	16	0	11%	-1.2
Trent Taylor	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cam Taylor-Britt	7	1	0.0	0
Logan Wilson	3	4	0.0	1
Sam Hubbard	3	3	1.0	0
B.J. Hill	1	4	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	2	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	2	3	0.0	0
Eli Apple	2	2	0.0	2
Mike Hilton	3	1	0.0	1
Markus Bailey	1	1	0.0	0
Stanley Morgan	1	0	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	22/34	291	0	0	1	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	17	38	2.2	-5.7
Dontrell Hilliard	2	16	8.0	1.2
Ryan Tannehill	2	9	4.5	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Derrick Henry	3	3	79	9%	5.7
Treylon Burks	4	6	70	18%	2.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	4	6	58	18%	3.4
Chigoziem Okonkwo	3	5	35	15%	-0.3
Austin Hooper	3	4	30	12%	2.4
Robert Woods	2	6	16	18%	-2.2
Dontrell Hilliard	3	3	3	9%	-1.9
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kevin Byard	5	2	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	4	2	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	3	3	0.0	0
Dylan Cole	3	2	0.0	0
Kristian Fulton	4	1	0.0	0
David Long Jr.	3	1	0.0	1
Rashad Weaver	1	2	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	0	1.0	0
Elijah Molden	2	0	0.0	0
Tre Avery	1	1	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1
Closing total: 43
CIN moneyline: -105
TEN moneyline: -105

Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 43; the game landed 36 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CIN 7 days · TEN 10 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Vrabel