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Cincinnati Bengals 20 at Tennessee Titans 16. Final.
Bengals -1 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals 20, Titans 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:30, 1st and 10, on Derrick Henry — 20.1 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:30 · 1st and 10
Derrick Henry
Titans
(11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN.
16.9 mph wind
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Cincinnati Bengals 20–16. Biggest swing: Q2 11:30, Titans +20.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trayveon WilliamsBengalsQ2 2:48(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 32-T.Williams to TEN 7 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).
13.0pts
Treylon BurksTitansQ3 2:35(2:35) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to CIN 24 for 51 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on CIN-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at CIN 24.
19.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Titans at 5 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bengals162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.1 for TitansExpected points +5.75 for TitansThe model had Titans 14 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:30TEN +20% win prob(11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:35TEN +19% win prob(2:35) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks to CIN 24 for 51 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on CIN-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at CIN 24.
2nd · 2:48TEN +13% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 32-T.Williams to TEN 7 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).
4th · 13:47TEN +12% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:58TEN +12% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 16-T.Irwin ran ob at TEN 27 for 16 yards. Tennessee challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
3rd · 14:15CIN +11% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 12 for -10 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tee Higgins's 27-yard touchdown catch with 13:47 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd14:10Caleb Shudak·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+30–3
2nd11:35Evan McPherson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+33–3
2nd11:30Treylon Burks·TD catchtouchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+73–10
3rd2:38Evan McPherson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+313–10
3rd0:42Caleb Shudak·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+313–13
4th13:47Tee Higgins·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+720–13
4th6:11Caleb Shudak·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+320–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryTitans
Bengals5–2Titans
378Total yards344
6.1Yards per play6.1
45%Success rate41%
38%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays5
18First downs14
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Bengals: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.21Titans: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Bengals: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.23Titans: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 56 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Titans 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 11 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 30 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Titans9.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 7.9 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.1 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%70 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%70 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap99%69 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time83%58 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Full-time80%56 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
88Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
32Trayveon WilliamsRB · Situational20%14 snaps
86Devin AsiasiTE · Situational20%14 snaps
11Trent TaylorWR · Situational16%11 snaps
18Kwamie LassiterWR · Situational11%8 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational7%5 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Situational7%5 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jeff GunterDED'Ante SmithGJackson CarmanGJosh TupouNTKevin HuberPJoe MixonRBJa'Marr ChaseWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Brandon AllenQBJonah WilliamsT
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Dennis DaleyT · Every snap100%57 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%57 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%57 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%57 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Full-time81%46 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation75%43 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation56%32 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
40Dontrell HilliardRB · Rotational37%21 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Rotational33%19 snaps
25Hassan HaskinsRB · Situational11%6 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational9%5 snaps
8Cody HollisterWR · Situational7%4 snaps
62Corey LevinC · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ben JonesCTerrance MitchellCBDenico AutryDENaquan JonesDTLarrell MurchisonDTJoe SchobertILBRandy BullockK
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:47 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at TEN 27 · gained 27 · +2.80 EP · +20.2% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 92 yards from the CIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
718
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1271%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0879%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.3754%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3830%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0714%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Titans 44
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 49
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 4 to the Bengals 7
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Titans 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Bengals 41
2nd quarter52 plays
Bengals0Titans3
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 15
Bengals3Titans3
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Titans 28
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Bengals3Titans9
Bengals3Titans10
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 32
Bengals9Titans10
Bengals10Titans10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Titans 7
No good15 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 17
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 22
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 36
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 29
Bengals13Titans10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Titans 16
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Bengals13Titans13
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 6
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 30
4th quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals19Titans13
Bengals20Titans13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Titans 27
Bengals20Titans16
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 20
The period ended17 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Titans 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -1
Closing total
43
Bengals moneyline
-105
Titans moneyline
-105
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 43; the game landed 36 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Titans 10 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Mike Vrabel
NoteWind at 16.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 0:22TEN +10% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to CIN 16 for 25 yards (24-V.Bell).
4th · 8:48TEN +9% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to CIN 25 for 17 yards (30-J.Bates; 24-V.Bell) [97-J.Tufele].
