2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Denver Broncos

Carolina PanthersWinner

DEN -1 upsetU 36.5 ✓15 mph windBroncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 23–10. Biggest swing: Q2 12:56, CAR +16% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:56DEN 0 — CAR 7DEN ball · 4th & 15CAR 67%

(12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:56CAR +16% win prob(12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.
Q2 · 4:02DEN +14% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at CAR 31 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns), touched at CAR 21, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 21.
Q2 · 4:42CAR +12% win prob(4:42) 28-L.Murray up the middle ran ob at CAR 23 for 52 yards (7-S.Thompson).
Q1 · 4:03CAR +7% win prob(4:03) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at DEN 32 for 26 yards (27-D.Mathis).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 0:36CAR Touchdown
(:36) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 0 — CAR 7
Q2 · 10:14DEN Field goal
(10:14) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CAR 7
Q2 · 4:46CAR Field goal
(4:46) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CAR 10
Q3 · 7:26CAR Touchdown
(7:26) (Shotgun) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold up the middle to DEN 2 for no gain (47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (47-J.Jewell), and recovers at DEN 1. 14-S.Darnold for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CAR 17
Q4 · 13:36CAR Field goal
(13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CAR 20
Q4 · 9:04CAR Field goal
(9:04) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CAR 23
Q4 · 3:24DEN Touchdown
(3:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — CAR 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Panthers
Offensive plays	57	64
Total yards	246	350 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	33%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	31%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/14 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

11/19, 164 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

19/35, 142 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-14.2 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

D'Onta ForemanRB

24 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

13 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/6 for 103 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/8 for 75 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	6	19	2:20	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 5	4	-1	1:35	Punt
3	CAR	DEN 41	4	2	1:32	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 12	4	9	2:03	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 29	12	71	7:00	Touchdown +7
6	DEN	DEN 25	7	13	2:44	Punt
7	DEN	CAR 27	5	18	2:35	Field goal +3
8	CAR	CAR 25	11	51	5:29	Field goal +3
9	DEN	DEN 25	4	52	0:46	Fumble
10	CAR	CAR 21	4	18	2:08	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 15	6	15	0:54	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 17	4	2	0:24	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 29	5	33	0:30	Missed field goal
14	DEN	DEN 25	5	8	1:26	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 28	11	72	6:13	Touchdown +7
16	DEN	DEN 28	8	22	3:09	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 15	4	8	2:18	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 9	4	9	1:02	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 25	7	67	2:19	Field goal +3
20	DEN	—	1	0	0:09	Fumble
21	CAR	DEN 35	7	17	4:25	Field goal +3
22	DEN	DEN 23	16	68	5:40	Touchdown +7
23	DEN	DEN 43	2	0	0:24	Turnover on downs
24	DEN	DEN 43	4	0	2:55	End of game
25	CAR	DEN 43	6	23	2:55	Turnover on downs

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	19/35	142	1	0	3	-14.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Latavius Murray	13	92	7.1	-1.0
Kendall Hinton	1	13	13.0	0.8
Russell Wilson	2	8	4.0	0.2
Marlon Mack	2	7	3.5	-0.4
Montrell Washington	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	6	8	75	0	25%	3.7
Kendall Hinton	5	9	35	0	28%	-4.2
Greg Dulcich	2	3	11	0	9%	-0.5
Brandon Johnson	2	4	10	1	13%	-1.1
Latavius Murray	1	1	6	0	3%	1.4
Marlon Mack	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.8
Devine Ozigbo	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
Jalen Virgil	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.3
Montrell Washington	1	3	-3	0	9%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Justin Simmons	4	5	0
Alex Singleton	3	4	0
Josey Jewell	6	1	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	4	0
Patrick Surtain	5	0	1
Kareem Jackson	1	4	0
Damarri Mathis	3	1	0
DeShawn Williams	3	1	0
P.J. Locke	1	2	0
Eyioma Uwazurike	2	1	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	11/19	164	1	0	0	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	24	113	4.7	0	-0.6
Chuba Hubbard	17	65	3.8	0	-1.7
Sam Darnold	3	3	1.0	1	-2.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Sean Chandler	1	2	2.0	0	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	4	6	103	1	35%	7.0
Ian Thomas	2	2	21	0	12%	1.7
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	2	19	0	12%	1.0
Raheem Blackshear	1	2	11	0	12%	-1.0
Terrace Marshall	1	3	8	0	18%	0.0
Tommy Tremble	1	2	2	0	12%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Frankie Luvu	6	1	0.0	0
Jaycee Horn	4	2	0.0	0
Sam Franklin	2	3	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	1	0.0	0
C.J. Henderson	4	0	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	2	2	0.0	1
T.J. Carrie	1	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	1	2.0	1
Marquis Haynes	2	0	1.0	2
Sean Chandler	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 36.5
DEN moneyline: -116
CAR moneyline: +105

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 33 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: DEN 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Nathaniel Hackett vs Steve Wilks

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.