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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:26 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q2 12:56, 4th and 15 — 16.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 23–10. Biggest swing: Q2 12:56, Broncos +16.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:56 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D.J. Moore's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:36 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 57 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Panthers’s 64 at 31%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Panthers 5.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate, 26.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 23 team-games charted in week 12 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.1 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CAR's pass rate over expected, −19.8 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CAR's play-action rate, 45.0%, is past their previous high of 39.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.1% in week 11 against 27.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-2.6 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 57 snaps
Panthers-19.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.4 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Broncos66.7%leaned — passed early · +10.5 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 42 early downs
Panthers26.0%leaned — ran early · −23.7 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 56%
Tendencies room →Broncos12.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers45.0%leaned — faked the run · +19.1 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Broncos0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.1 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers33.3%right on their number · +8.8 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 59%
Tendencies room →Broncos40.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Panthers17.5%leaned — sat back · −12.4 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Broncos10.0%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Panthers27.5%leaned — got home · +13.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
CAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.5%, 13.3 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.8 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
11/19, 164 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.2 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
19/35, 142 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-14.2 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
6/8 for 75 yds, 0 TD
25% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
D.J. Moore banked 9.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.3 | +9.0 | 97% | 95% | 35% | 73% | 4/6, 103 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | +4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/19, 164 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.5 | +2.0 | 93% | 88% | 25% | 23% | 6/8, 75 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 11.3 | −1.5 | 53% | 40% | 0% | — | 24 car, 113 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.8 | +2.9 | 82% | 78% | 3% | 1% | 13 car, 92 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.8 | −4.4 | 92% | 93% | 28% | 22% | 1 car, 13 yd · 5/9, 35 yd |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +2.6 | 70% | 78% | 13% | 11% | 2/4, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 8.5 | −5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/35, 142 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 8 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 6.5 | −1.7 | 42% | 40% | 0% | — | 17 car, 65 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.3 | 58% | 40% | 12% | 0% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.9 | 42% | 70% | 12% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 19 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.2 | 87% | 88% | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 2.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem BlackshearRB · Receiving Back | 2.1 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.1 | 62% | 85% | 18% | 22% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Devine OzigboRB | 1.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.3 | 74% | 60% | 12% | 5% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −4.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Shi SmithWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at CAR 31 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns), touched at CAR 21, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 21.
Q2 4:02 · Broncos · 2nd & 10 at CAR 23 · gained nothing · -4.34 EP · −12.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 77 yards from the DEN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Panthers6Broncos0Panthers7Broncos3Panthers7Broncos3Panthers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos3Panthers16Broncos3Panthers17Broncos3Panthers20Broncos3Panthers23Broncos9Panthers23Broncos10Panthers23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/35 | 142 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 13 | 92 | 7.1 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 25% | +3.7 |
| Kendall Hinton | 5 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 28% | −4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Simmons | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 11/19 | 164 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_DEN_CAR
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 33 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 13% | −1.1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Jalen Virgil | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 9% | −2.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kareem Jackson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |
| 113 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Sean Chandler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 4 | 6 | 103 | 1 | 35% | +7.0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 12% | +1.0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 12% | −1.0 |
| Terrace Marshall | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18% | +0.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Franklin | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Carrie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marquis Haynes | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sean Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
