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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q2 8:56, 3rd and 8, on A.J. Brown — 16.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:56 · 3rd and 8
A.J. Brown
Packers
(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to GB 22 for no gain (20-R.Ford; 51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (20-R.Ford), RECOVERED by GB-7-Q.Walker at GB 24. 7-Q.Walker pushed ob at PHI 13 for 63 yards (1-J.Hurts).
Philadelphia Eagles 40–33. Biggest swing: Q2 8:56, Packers +16.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Packers at 1 of 7 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Packers at 8 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Packers at +0.08 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to GB 22 for no gain (20-R.Ford; 51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (20-R.Ford), RECOVERED by GB-7-Q.Walker at GB 24. 7-Q.Walker pushed ob at PHI 13 for 63 yards (1-J.Hurts).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Quez Watkins's 30-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Aaron Jones23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, wide right+620–20
Quez Watkins30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+720–2713 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 48 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Eagles’s 78 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate, 5.7%, is past their previous low of 8.7% in week 3 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-7.4 ptsright on their number · −4.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 48 snaps
Eagles-11.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.2 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers52.5%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 40 early downs
Eagles45.0%leaned — ran early · −10.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 56%
Tendencies room →Packers32.1%right on their number · +5.3 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Eagles20.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 120%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.3%.
Eagles75.0%inside their normal wobble · +23.8 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±26.9 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 54%
Tendencies room →Packers40.0%leaned — sent pressure · +17.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles14.3%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers5.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles14.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
GB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 1.4 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
16/28, 153 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Passing · GB
11/16, 140 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
0.2 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
4/6 for 110 yds, 1 TD
24% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Miles Sanders banked 12.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 31.0 | +12.9 | 54% | 31% | 12% | 5% | 21 car, 143 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 29.8 | +4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/28, 153 yd, 2 TD · 17 car, 157 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 21.0 | +10.3 | 92% | 89% | 24% | 44% | 4/6, 110 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 18.9 | +3.9 | 71% | 79% | 16% | 19% | 12 car, 43 yd · 3/4, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 17.8 | +8.0 | 43% | 36% | 16% | 0% | 8 car, 64 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 24 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 12.6 | +1.4 | 96% | 86% | 24% | 23% | 4/6, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 12.5 | +3.6 | 83% | 69% | 20% | 25% | 3/5, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 11.6 | +2.1 | 34% | 37% | 4% | 1% | 8 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +1.0 | 45% | 61% | 16% | 17% | 2/4, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | +2.1 | 80% | — | 0% | — | 11/16, 140 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −5.8 | 93% | 86% | 36% | 42% | 4/9, 50 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB | 8.5 | +4.1 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 6/9, 113 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.6 | 51% | 68% | 12% | 8% | 3/3, 20 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −0.1 | 100% | 100% | 12% | 18% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 2.4 | +0.3 | 13% | 17% | 0% | — | 3 car, 24 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −0.4 | 29% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -2 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 18% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 11% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to GB 22 for no gain (20-R.Ford; 51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (20-R.Ford), RECOVERED by GB-7-Q.Walker at GB 24. 7-Q.Walker pushed ob at PHI 13 for 63 yards (1-J.Hurts).
Q2 8:56 · Eagles · 3rd & 8 at GB 22 · lost 2 · -8.35 EP · −17.8% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 86 yards from the PHI 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Eagles6Packers0Eagles7Packers0Eagles13Packers6Eagles13Packers7Eagles13How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers13Eagles13Packers14Eagles13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Packers14Eagles19Packers14Eagles20How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Packers20Eagles20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers20Eagles26Packers20Eagles27Packers20Eagles33Packers20Eagles34Packers23Eagles34Packers23Eagles37Packers29Eagles37Packers30Eagles37Packers30Eagles40Packers33Eagles40Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 11/16 | 140 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Jordan Love | 6/9 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 110 | 1 | 24% | +10.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 16% | +5.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/28 | 153 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_GB_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46; the game landed 73 — over by 27.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 16.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| A.J. Dillon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 16% | +0.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 16% | +1.5 |
| Tyler Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −4.7 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaire Alexander | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Preston Smith | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
| 157 |
| 9.2 |
| 0 |
| +9.6 |
| Miles Sanders | 21 | 143 | 6.8 | 2 | +6.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 36% | +0.6 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 24% | −3.0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 20% | +2.6 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haason Reddick | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Scott | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Javon Hargrave | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
