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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
TexansHouston15
BY 15final margin
DolphinsMiami30
Houston Texans 15 at Miami Dolphins 30. Final.
Dolphins -14 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 12
Miami Dolphins 30, Texans 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:38, 2nd and 9, on A.Van — 4.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:38 · 2nd and 9
A.Van
Dolphins
(12:38) 3-K.Allen pass short right intended for 31-D.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at HOU 26. 43-A.Van Ginkel to HOU 3 for 23 yards (31-D.Pierce).
Dolphins closed -14 and covered, winning by 15.
Miami Dolphins 30–15. Biggest swing: Q2 12:38, Dolphins +4.3% win probability on one snap.
4.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsQ1 13:32(13:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 34 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray).
3.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetTexansQ1 7:52(7:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 41 for 6 yards (29-M.Stewart).
2.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Texans at 2 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Texans171 of 180 plays carry both curves
(12:38) 3-K.Allen pass short right intended for 31-D.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at HOU 26. 43-A.Van Ginkel to HOU 3 for 23 yards (31-D.Pierce).
Swing +4.3 for DolphinsExpected points +6.18 for DolphinsThe model had Texans 11 points higher than the market did.play 50
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:38HOU +4% win prob(12:38) 3-K.Allen pass short right intended for 31-D.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at HOU 26. 43-A.Van Ginkel to HOU 3 for 23 yards (31-D.Pierce).
1st · 13:32HOU +4% win prob(13:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 34 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray).
1st · 7:52MIA +2% win prob(7:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 41 for 6 yards (29-M.Stewart).
1st · 11:02HOU +2% win prob(11:02) 23-J.Wilson right end pushed ob at HOU 9 for 8 yards (21-S.Nelson). PENALTY on MIA-68-R.Hunt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 17 - No Play.
1st · 10:26MIA +2% win prob(10:26) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
1st · 3:06MIA +2% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 45-yard field goal with 10:26 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:26Jason Sanders·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+30–3
1st3:06Durham Smythe·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–10
2nd0:01Jason Sanders·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+30–30
3rd3:22Dare Ogunbowale·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+66–30
4th12:56Jordan Akins·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyle Allenfrom Kyle Allen · two-point no good+612–30
4th9:04Ka'imi Fairbairn·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+315–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryDolphins
Texans0–8Dolphins
210Total yards339
3.5Yards per play5.0
28%Success rate37%
15%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays7
14First downs22
5Sacks taken5
3Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Texans: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.11Dolphins: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.48Texans: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.07Dolphins: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Texans: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.49Dolphins: −0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 60 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 68 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
HOU's early-down pass rate, 77.3%, is past their previous high of 69.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Dolphins17.0%
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.3%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 58.2% and 1.7 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Allen pass−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:38) 3-K.Allen pass short right intended for 31-D.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at HOU 26. 43-A.Van Ginkel to HOU 3 for 23 yards (31-D.Pierce).
Q2 12:38 · Texans · 2nd & 9 at HOU 21 · gained nothing · -6.18 EP · −8.6% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 72 yards from the MIA 23 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
33%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.4383%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2977%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.0152%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2069%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0556%
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Texans0Dolphins3
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Texans 17
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 22
Texans0Dolphins9
Texans0Dolphins10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Texans 3
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 43
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 49
Intercepted2 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 21
Texans0Dolphins16
Texans0Dolphins17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Texans0Dolphins20
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Texans 5
Texans0Dolphins26
Touchdown4 plays
Texans0Dolphins27
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 34
Texans0Dolphins30
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Texans 11
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Texans 41
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 31
Punt4 plays
Texans6Dolphins30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Dolphins 3
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 48
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Texans12Dolphins30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 25
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Texans15Dolphins30
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Dolphins 10
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 26
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Dolphins 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
