2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · State Farm Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

LAC -2.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Chargers 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, ARI +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:15LAC 25 — ARI 24LAC ballARI 61%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:15ARI +32% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q4 · 0:06LAC +27% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green (43-M.Davis).
Q4 · 3:03LAC +15% win prob(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 48 for -13 yards (9-I.Simmons).
Q4 · 2:00LAC +12% win prob(2:00) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter ran ob at ARI 43 for 20 yards (35-C.Matthew). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 43.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:41ARI Touchdown
(2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-49-D.Tranquill, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 0 — ARI 7
Q2 · 14:07ARI Field goal
(14:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: LAC 0 — ARI 10
Q2 · 8:55LAC Touchdown
(8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 7 — ARI 10
Q2 · 4:36LAC Touchdown
(4:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-79-T.Pipkins was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 14 — ARI 10
Q2 · 0:17ARI Touchdown
(:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 14 — ARI 17
Q3 · 4:31LAC Field goal
(4:31) 15-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 17 — ARI 17
Q4 · 13:36ARI Touchdown
(13:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 17 — ARI 24
Q4 · 0:18LAC Touchdown
(:18) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: LAC 25 — ARI 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	64	64
Total yards	314	366 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	47% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	84%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	6/13	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Cardinals outgained Chargers 366–314 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

35/47, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.2 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

18/29, 191 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.7 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

25 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

-7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

7 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

4/6 for 87 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

DeAndre CarterWR

7/10 for 73 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	8	15	3:16	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 12	3	37	1:17	Fumble
3	LAC	ARI 47	4	3	1:22	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 18	11	91	6:32	Touchdown +7
5	LAC	LAC 25	5	-2	0:42	Punt
6	ARI	LAC 44	7	19	2:48	Field goal +3
7	LAC	LAC 25	13	75	5:12	Touchdown +7
8	ARI	ARI 25	5	9	1:48	Interception
9	LAC	LAC 44	6	66	2:35	Touchdown +7
10	ARI	ARI 25	16	70	4:16	Touchdown +7
11	LAC	LAC 25	2	0	0:12	End of half
12	ARI	ARI 25	7	49	3:59	Missed field goal
13	LAC	LAC 39	14	53	6:33	Field goal +3
14	ARI	ARI 25	13	75	5:57	Touchdown +7
15	LAC	LAC 25	6	27	2:39	Punt
16	ARI	ARI 6	4	8	1:45	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 39	4	-3	1:33	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 25	4	5	1:27	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 22	9	30	3:48	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 10	4	3	0:31	Punt
21	LAC	ARI 38	8	50	1:33	Touchdown +8
22	ARI	ARI 32	3	0	0:15	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 91 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	35/47	274	3	0	4	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Herbert	4	38	9.5	3.3
Austin Ekeler	5	20	4.0	-0.3
Joshua Kelley	2	4	2.0	-0.6
Isaiah Spiller	2	3	1.5	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Carter	7	10	73	1	21%	5.1
Austin Ekeler	11	15	60	1	32%	-0.1
Josh Palmer	5	7	56	0	15%	4.3
Keenan Allen	5	7	49	1	15%	3.2
Gerald Everett	4	4	18	0	9%	-0.4
Joshua Kelley	2	3	16	0	6%	-0.2
Isaiah Spiller	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alohi Gilman	5	5	0.0	0	1
Drue Tranquill	6	2	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	4	3	0.0	1	1
Kenneth Murray	2	4	0.0	0	1
Michael Davis	5	1	1.0	0	2
Bryce Callahan	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	3	1	0.0	0	0
Breiden Fehoko	2	1	0.0	0	0
Morgan Fox	1	1	0.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	18/29	191	2	1	1	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	25	120	4.8	0	-7.2
Kyler Murray	7	56	8.0	1	3.8
Keaontay Ingram	2	5	2.5	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	4	6	87	1	22%	4.4
Marquise Brown	6	8	46	0	30%	2.1
James Conner	3	3	20	1	11%	3.0
Robbie Chosen	1	3	17	0	11%	1.1
Corey Clement	1	1	8	0	4%	1.6
Andre Baccellia	1	1	7	0	4%	1.2
A.J. Green	1	2	5	0	7%	-0.2
Trey McBride	1	3	1	0	11%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Isaiah Simmons	7	0	1.0	1
Marco Wilson	6	1	0.0	1
Antonio Hamilton	5	0	0.0	1
Trysten Hill	2	1	0.0	0
Trayvon Mullen	3	0	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	2	1	0.0	0
Zaven Collins	2	1	0.0	0
Budda Baker	2	1	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0.0	0
Zach Allen	1	1	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -2.5
Closing total: 48.5
LAC moneyline: -136
ARI moneyline: +123

Chargers closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 49 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LAC 7 days · ARI 6 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Kliff Kingsbury