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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q4 0:15, on Gerald Everett — 32.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Chargers +32.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15
Gerald Everett
Chargers
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
32.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 3 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Austin Ekeler's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:18 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Austin Ekeler1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbert · two-point goodLead never changed again+825–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryCardinals
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 64 snaps at a 84% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Cardinals 3.
Cardinals outgained Chargers 366-314 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, +16.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate, 82.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's pass rate over expected, −9.4 pts, is past their previous low of −8.1 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 11 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.6 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers16.3 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +12.1 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.09× that swing) · 63 snaps
Cardinals-9.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.7 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 93%
Tendencies room →Chargers82.0%leaned — passed early · +18.3 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 50 early downs
Cardinals48.0%leaned — ran early · −13.5 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chargers26.4%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Cardinals21.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.4%.
Cardinals25.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.6 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±19.6 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Chargers36.4%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals32.1%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Chargers3.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals24.1%inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
LAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 16.3 pts, 12.1 points above their season mean of 4.3 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
35/47, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
3.2 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
18/29, 191 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
7.7 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeAndre Hopkins banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 28.8 | +3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 35/47, 274 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 38 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 25.2 | +4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 191 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 25.0 | −4.1 | 70% | 74% | 32% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd · 11/15, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.0 | +2.2 | 97% | 94% | 11% | 0% | 25 car, 120 yd · 3/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Featured Receiver | 20.3 | +4.4 | 80% | 83% | 21% | 36% | 7/10, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 18.7 | +7.5 | 74% | 88% | 22% | 37% | 4/6, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.9 | −0.5 | 89% | 94% | 15% | 27% | 5/7, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.6 | −3.4 | 97% | 97% | 30% | 32% | 6/8, 46 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | −0.8 | 95% | 100% | 15% | 35% | 5/7, 56 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.4 | 58% | 61% | 9% | 4% | 4/4, 18 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 4.0 | −1.2 | 21% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 2 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −2.6 | 42% | 39% | 11% | 16% | 1/3, 17 yd |
| Corey ClementRB | 1.8 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Andre BaccelliaWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.1 | 53% | 67% | 7% | 11% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Isaiah SpillerRB | 1.5 | −0.8 | 12% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 2 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −3.2 | 79% | 76% | 11% | 5% | 1/3, 1 yd |
| Keaontay IngramRB | 0.5 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pharoh CooperWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 39% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Michael BandyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green (43-M.Davis).
Q4 0:06 · Cardinals · 2nd & 10 at ARI 32 · gained nothing · -0.10 EP · −33.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 91 yards from the ARI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Chargers0
Cardinals6Chargers0Cardinals7Chargers0Cardinals10Chargers6Cardinals10Chargers7Cardinals10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Chargers13Cardinals10Chargers14Cardinals10How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Chargers14Cardinals16Chargers14Cardinals17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Chargers17Cardinals17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Chargers17Cardinals23Chargers17Cardinals24How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Chargers23Cardinals24Chargers25Cardinals24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 35/47 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Joshua Kelley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Carter | 7 | 10 | 73 | 1 | 21% | +5.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 15 | 60 | 1 | 32% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alohi Gilman | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 18/29 | 191 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_LAC_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 49 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| −0.1 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 15% | +4.3 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 15% | +3.2 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −0.3 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Kenneth Murray | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Davis | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryce Callahan | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breiden Fehoko | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Fox | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 25 | 120 | 4.8 | 0 | −7.2 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 22% | +4.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 30% | +2.1 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 11% | +3.0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11% | −2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Simmons | 7 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marco Wilson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Hamilton | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trysten Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayvon Mullen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
