For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Chargers163 of 175 plays carry both curves
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Swing −32.3 for CardinalsExpected points −1.05 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 3 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15ARI +32% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:06LAC +27% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green (43-M.Davis).
4th · 3:03LAC +15% win prob(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 48 for -13 yards (9-I.Simmons).
4th · 2:00LAC +12% win prob(2:00) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter ran ob at ARI 43 for 20 yards (35-C.Matthew). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 43.
4th · 13:36ARI +12% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:36ARI +12% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-79-T.Pipkins was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:18 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:18Austin Ekeler·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · two-point goodLead never changed again+825–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryCardinals
Chargers3–5Cardinals
314Total yards366
4.9Yards per play5.7
47%Success rate42%
46%Third-down rate54%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays7
24First downs19
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Chargers: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Chargers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.34Cardinals: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.24Cardinals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 64 snaps at a 84% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteCardinals outgained Chargers 366-314 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +16.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +11.0 pts in week 2.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 11.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's early-down pass rate, 82.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 11.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, −9.4 pts, is past their previous low of −8.1 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points.
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 11 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals24.1%
inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 16.3 pts, 12.1 points above their season mean of 4.3 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green (43-M.Davis).
Q4 0:06 · Cardinals · 2nd & 10 at ARI 32 · gained nothing · -0.10 EP · −33.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 91 yards from the ARI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1489%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.0152%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2135%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10+0.5870%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1778%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1550%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 41
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 41
Chargers0Cardinals6
Chargers0Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Chargers 33
Punt6 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 36
2nd quarter52 plays
Chargers0Cardinals10
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 25
Chargers6Cardinals10
Chargers7Cardinals10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cardinals 2
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Chargers13Cardinals10
Chargers14Cardinals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Cardinals 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Chargers14Cardinals16
Chargers14Cardinals17
Touchdown21 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Chargers 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
No good8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Chargers 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chargers17Cardinals17
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Cardinals 8
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Chargers 18
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chargers17Cardinals23
Chargers17Cardinals24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 6
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cardinals 48
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 14
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Cardinals 35
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 13
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Chargers23Cardinals24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers25Cardinals24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Cardinals 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runDigCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw8.5 seconds
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
