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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 47 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Rams157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(11:34) 11-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at KC 43.
Swing −9.5 for ChiefsExpected points −5.51 for ChiefsThe model had Rams 26 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:34KC +10% win prob(11:34) 11-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at KC 43.
1st · 9:30KC +8% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 24-S.Moore pushed ob at KC 31 for 18 yards (33-N.Scott).
1st · 5:51KC +7% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:12LA +6% win prob(13:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to LA 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-B.Powell. PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at LA 8.
1st · 11:23LA +5% win prob(11:23) 16-B.Perkins sacked at LA 47 for -10 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
2nd · 15:00KC +4% win prob(15:00) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 39-yard touchdown catch with 5:51 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:51Travis Kelce·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd15:00Matt Gay·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+33–7
2nd9:53Harrison Butker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–10
2nd0:19Harrison Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–13
4th6:39Harrison Butker·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+310–23
4th1:47Harrison Butker·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+310–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryChiefs
Rams0–8Chiefs
199Total yards437
3.7Yards per play6.1
31%Success rate51%
38%Third-down rate45%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays7
13First downs26
3Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Rams: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Rams: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.10Chiefs: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 72 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Rams 1, Chiefs 7.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 23 team-games charted in week 12 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 35.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Chiefs20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 62.2 points above their season mean of 37.8% and 1.8 times their own 35.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
61A.J. ArcuriT · Every snap100%54 snaps
64Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%54 snaps
63Oday AboushiG · Every snap100%54 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%54 snaps
16Bryce PerkinsQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%54 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time87%47 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation70%38 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Heavy rotation63%34 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation59%32 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Heavy rotation52%28 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Rotational48%26 snaps
82Lance McCutcheonWR · Rotational48%26 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Rotational41%22 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Rotational30%16 snaps
49Roger CarterTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCTravin HowardILBMatthew StaffordQBTy NsekheTAllen RobinsonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Dixon punts+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:34) 11-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at KC 43.
Q1 11:34 · Rams · 4th & 6 at LA 8 · gained nothing · +5.51 EP · +16.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
635
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.2849%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31+0.2442%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0073%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.1864%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 43
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 4 to the Rams 8
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Rams0Chiefs6
Rams0Chiefs7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Rams 33
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chiefs 25
2nd quarter51 plays
Rams3Chiefs7
Field goal1 play
Rams3Chiefs10
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Rams 4
Punt15 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 48
Rams3Chiefs13
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Rams 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
Rams3Chiefs19
Rams3Chiefs20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Rams 3
The period ended15 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chiefs 13
4th quarter47 plays
Rams9Chiefs20
Rams10Chiefs20
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Rams 4
Intercepted2 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 24
Rams10Chiefs23
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 43
Rams10Chiefs26
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -16.5
Closing total
42
Rams moneyline
+768
Chiefs moneyline
-1088
Chiefs closed -16.5, won by 16 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 36 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Rams 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Andy Reid
4th · 8:55
LA +3% win prob
(8:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 33-N.Scott at LA -6. Touchback.
4th · 8:21LA +3% win prob(8:21) 16-B.Perkins pass short left intended for 12-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed [51-M.Danna] at LA 35. 38-L.Sneed pushed ob at LA 9 for 26 yards (79-R.Havenstein).
