2022 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 24, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium

New England Patriots

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -2.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Minnesota Vikings 33–26. Biggest swing: Q3 10:54, MIN +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:54NE 23 — MIN 22MIN ballNE 68%

6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:54MIN +21% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:03MIN +14% win prob(11:03) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:22MIN +14% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-J.Reagor to NE 26 for 25 yards (32-D.McCourty).
Q1 · 3:43NE +14% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at NE 28. 31-Jo.Jones pushed ob at MIN 17 for 55 yards (4-D.Cook).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:44MIN Touchdown
(10:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIN 7
Q1 · 8:29NE Touchdown
(8:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIN 7
Q1 · 1:32NE Field goal
(1:32) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 10 — MIN 7
Q2 · 8:32MIN Field goal
(8:32) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NE 10 — MIN 10
Q2 · 5:47NE Field goal
(5:47) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 13 — MIN 10
Q2 · 1:35MIN Touchdown
(1:35) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 13 — MIN 16
Q2 · 0:06NE Field goal
(:06) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 16 — MIN 16
Q3 · 11:03NE Touchdown
(11:03) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — MIN 16
Q3 · 10:54MIN Touchdown
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — MIN 23
Q3 · 6:46NE Field goal
(6:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 26 — MIN 23
Q4 · 14:11MIN Field goal
(14:11) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NE 26 — MIN 26
Q4 · 9:40MIN Touchdown
(9:40) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 26 — MIN 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Vikings
Offensive plays	54	65
Total yards	409 (edge)	359
Yards per play	7.6 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	43%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	3/10	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

28/39, 382 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

30/37, 299 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.6 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

22 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-8.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

7 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/11 for 139 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

4/4 for 80 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 20	10	65	4:20	Touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 25	7	75	2:19	Touchdown +7
3	MIN	MIN 21	5	9	1:37	Punt
4	NE	NE 14	4	7	1:17	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 43	4	6	1:59	Interception
6	NE	MIN 17	4	1	2:00	Field goal +3
7	MIN	MIN 16	15	82	7:59	Field goal +3
8	NE	NE 49	6	23	2:48	Field goal +3
9	MIN	MIN 25	11	70	4:11	Touchdown +6
10	NE	NE 25	10	70	1:27	Field goal +3
11	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:03	End of half
12	NE	NE 25	10	75	4:06	Touchdown +7
13	MIN	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown +7
14	NE	NE 25	10	69	3:58	Field goal +3
15	MIN	MIN 17	15	45	7:36	Field goal +3
16	NE	NE 25	5	1	1:01	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 29	7	71	3:32	Touchdown +7
18	NE	NE 25	5	9	1:27	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 35	7	10	3:46	Punt
20	NE	NE 13	7	48	2:27	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 39	4	1	1:01	Punt
22	NE	NE 11	3	31	0:53	End of game

12 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	28/39	382	2	0	3	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	7	36	5.1	-0.0
Damien Harris	5	16	3.2	-0.5
Kendrick Bourne	1	-7	-7.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	4	80	0	11%	5.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	10	76	0	29%	-0.0
Nelson Agholor	6	8	65	1	23%	0.3
Hunter Henry	3	5	63	1	14%	2.4
Jakobi Meyers	3	4	62	0	11%	2.1
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	36	0	11%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jonathan Jones	6	1	1	3
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	5	0	0
Kyle Dugger	6	1	0	0
Devin McCourty	3	3	0	0
Jalen Mills	3	1	0	1
Deatrich Wise	3	1	0	0
Adrian Phillips	3	0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	3	0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	1	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	30/37	299	3	1	1	11.6
Justin Jefferson	1/1	11	0	0	0	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	22	42	1.9	-8.0
Alexander Mattison	3	11	3.7	-0.7
K.J. Osborn	1	5	5.0	0.6
Kirk Cousins	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	11	139	1	30%	9.3
Adam Thielen	9	10	61	1	27%	2.5
T.J. Hockenson	5	6	43	1	16%	4.1
Jalen Reagor	1	1	25	0	3%	3.0
Johnny Mundt	2	2	20	0	5%	1.7
Dalvin Cook	4	5	14	0	14%	0.7
K.J. Osborn	1	2	8	0	5%	-6.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	6	2	1.0	0
Eric Kendricks	4	3	0.0	1
Duke Shelley	4	2	0.0	1
Harrison Smith	6	0	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	3	0.0	0
James Lynch	1	1	0.0	0
Za'Darius Smith	2	0	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	1	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	1	1	0.0	1
Danielle Hunter	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
NE moneyline: +123
MIN moneyline: -136

Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 59 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NE 4 days · MIN 4 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Kevin O'Connell