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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Patriots161 of 172 plays carry both curves
Q3 · 10:54Patriots 23 — Vikings 22MIN ballNE 68%
Patriots 68%Vikings 32%
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.8 for VikingsExpected points +5.31 for VikingsThe model had Patriots 3 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:54MIN +21% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:03MIN +14% win prob(11:03) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:22MIN +14% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-J.Reagor to NE 26 for 25 yards (32-D.McCourty).
1st · 3:43NE +14% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at NE 28. 31-Jo.Jones pushed ob at MIN 17 for 55 yards (4-D.Cook).
2nd · 5:08MIN +14% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to NE 35 for 37 yards (31-Jo.Jones).
4th · 9:40MIN +14% win prob(9:40) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Thielen's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:40 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Patriots: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.31Vikings: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Patriots: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.31Vikings: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 54 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Vikings’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Vikings 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, is past their previous high of 63.9% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +6.1 pts, is past their previous high of +4.2 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 11.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings7.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.8%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 56.3% and 1.4 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%55 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%55 snaps
65James FerentzC · Every snap100%55 snaps
72Yodny CajusteT · Every snap100%55 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%55 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time85%47 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Full-time82%45 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Heavy rotation78%43 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation71%39 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
11Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational36%20 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational29%16 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational29%16 snaps
37Damien HarrisRB · Situational20%11 snaps
Inactive · 6
David AndrewsCShaun WadeCBSam RobertsDTJoshuah BledsoeFSKevin HarrisRBIsaiah WynnT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Folk kicks+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:54 · Vikings · Kickoff at NE 35 · gained nothing · +5.31 EP · +24.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
767
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0675%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0272%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1840%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0650%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Patriots0Vikings6
Patriots0Vikings7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Patriots 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Patriots6Vikings7
Patriots7Vikings7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 30
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 21
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Patriots 44
Patriots10Vikings7
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 19
2nd quarter46 plays
Patriots10Vikings10
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Patriots 9
Patriots13Vikings10
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Vikings 28
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Patriots13Vikings16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Patriots 1
Patriots16Vikings16
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Vikings 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Patriots22Vikings16
Patriots23Vikings16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Vikings 37
Patriots23Vikings22
Patriots23Vikings23
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Patriots26Vikings23
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Vikings 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended16 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Patriots 11
4th quarter48 plays
Patriots26Vikings26
Field goal3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 26
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Patriots26Vikings32
Patriots26Vikings33
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Patriots 15
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 49
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Vikings 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Patriots 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
