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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 24, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q3 10:54 — 20.8 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 33–26. Biggest swing: Q3 10:54, Vikings +20.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:54
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Vikings at 1 giveaway.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Adam Thielen's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:40 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
T.J. Hockenson1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · kick no good, wide right+613–16Adam Thielen15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+726–3312 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 54 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Vikings’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Vikings 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, is past their previous high of 63.9% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected, +6.1 pts, is past their previous high of +4.2 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots6.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.4 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 54 snaps
Vikings4.7 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 85%
Tendencies room →Patriots69.8%leaned — passed early · +13.5 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 43 early downs
Vikings52.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Patriots12.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Vikings38.5%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 58%
Tendencies room →Patriots33.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings24.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots10.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings7.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.8%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 56.3% and 1.4 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
28/39, 382 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.8 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
30/37, 299 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
11.6 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
9/11 for 139 yds, 1 TD
30% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.3 | +9.2 | 97% | 97% | 30% | 51% | 1/1, 11 yd · 9/11, 139 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 23.3 | +6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/39, 382 yd, 2 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 21.9 | +5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/37, 299 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.1 | +4.0 | 93% | 92% | 27% | 19% | 9/10, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 20.2 | +1.8 | 82% | 88% | 29% | 0% | 7 car, 36 yd · 9/10, 76 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Featured Receiver | 18.5 | +5.2 | 78% | 71% | 23% | 27% | 6/8, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.3 | +3.6 | 80% | 85% | 16% | 12% | 5/6, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.3 | +5.3 | 71% | 76% | 14% | 15% | 3/5, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +4.7 | 85% | 86% | 11% | 24% | 4/4, 80 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.6 | −13.5 | 86% | 85% | 14% | 0% | 22 car, 42 yd · 4/5, 14 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.6 | 29% | 36% | 11% | 29% | 3/4, 62 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −3.0 | 69% | 67% | 11% | 9% | 1 car, -7 yd · 3/4, 36 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.9 | 54% | 41% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.6 | 57% | 64% | 5% | 10% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 1.6 | −0.7 | 20% | 12% | 0% | — | 5 car, 16 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 1.1 | −0.3 | 14% | 15% | 0% | — | 3 car, 11 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:54 · Vikings · Kickoff at NE 35 · gained nothing · +5.31 EP · +24.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Vikings6Patriots0Vikings7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots6Vikings7Patriots7Vikings7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots10Vikings7Patriots10Vikings10Patriots13Vikings10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Patriots13Vikings16Patriots16Vikings16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots22Vikings16Patriots23Vikings16Patriots23Vikings22Patriots23Vikings23How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Patriots26Vikings23How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots26Vikings26How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Patriots26Vikings32Patriots26Vikings33How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 28/39 | 382 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Damien Harris | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 | 11% | +5.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/37 | 299 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11.6 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 11 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_NE_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 59 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -7 |
| -7.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| 29% |
| −0.0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 8 | 65 | 1 | 23% | +0.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 14% | +2.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 11% | +2.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deatrich Wise | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 42 | 1.9 | 0 | −8.0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 139 | 1 | 30% | +9.3 |
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 27% | +2.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 16% | +4.1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +3.0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 14% | +0.7 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | −6.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duke Shelley | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Lynch | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
