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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q1 13:02, 1st and 10, on Alvin Kamara — 8.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 13–0. Biggest swing: Q1 13:02, 49ers +8.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:02 · 1st and 10
Alvin Kamara
49ers
(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.48 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.27 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robbie Gould's 24-yard field goal with 8:05 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Robbie Gould24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+30–33 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 65 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, 49ers 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Saints4.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.2 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 53 snaps
49ers-0.5 ptsright on their number · +3.6 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints61.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.9 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 41 early downs
49ers48.0%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 39%
Tendencies room →Saints22.9%leaned — faked the run · +9.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
49ers21.1%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 75%
Fourth Down room →Saints25.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
49ers50.0%leaned — went for it · +25.2 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 52%
Tendencies room →Saints26.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers20.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 31%
Tendencies room →Saints15.8%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers14.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 22.9%, 9.4 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
26/37, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.3 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Passing · NO
18/29, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.3 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rashid Shaheed banked 2.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | +1.8 | 41% | 61% | 19% | 20% | 6/7, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | −6.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/37, 222 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 4 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | −1.4 | 97% | 97% | 22% | 47% | 5/8, 65 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.2 | −2.5 | 67% | 83% | 30% | 53% | 5/9, 62 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −7.4 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 204 yd · 4 car, 21 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 8.9 | −5.7 | 63% | 71% | 16% | 10% | 11 car, 32 yd · 4/6, 17 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +2.8 | 53% | 69% | 10% | 21% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/3, 53 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −6.4 | 79% | 95% | 19% | 8% | 2 car, 0 yd · 3/7, 43 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −6.5 | 67% | 66% | 23% | 0% | 7 car, 13 yd · 6/7, 37 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 6.3 | −0.7 | 21% | 21% | 5% | 0% | 7 car, 35 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −2.2 | 97% | 97% | 11% | 10% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −3.2 | 56% | 66% | 13% | 10% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 3.0 | −6.3 | 49% | — | 7% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd · 6 car, 13 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.1 | 61% | 49% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 2.5 | +0.3 | 13% | 3% | 0% | — | 5 car, 25 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.2 | −2.0 | 43% | 34% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 2 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 26% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Mark IngramRB | 1.0 | −4.4 | 30% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | 14% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 47% | 57% | 7% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
Q1 13:02 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 40 · gained 1 · -5.23 EP · −11.0% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Saints0
49ers3Saints049ers9Saints049ers10Saints049ers13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/29 | 204 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | −6.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 30% | +0.3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 26/37 | 222 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_NO_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 44; the game landed 13 — under by 31.0.
Conditions and crew
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| +3.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 23% | −5.2 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Marcus Maye | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shy Tuttle | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kentavius Street | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 22% | +0.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 19% | +6.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 19% | +1.0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +0.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 16% | −2.3 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talanoa Hufanga | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Charvarius Ward | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kerry Hyder | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Ridgeway | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
