2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

New Orleans Saints

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -9.5 ✓U 44 ✓49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 13.

San Francisco 49ers 13–0. Biggest swing: Q1 13:02, NO +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:02NO 0 — SF 0NO ball · 1st & 10SF 79%

(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:02NO +8% win prob(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
Q2 · 3:06NO +6% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at NO 2 for -1 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
Q2 · 10:33NO +4% win prob(10:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum). PENALTY on SF-26-S.Womack, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 47.
Q2 · 9:40NO +3% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 41-A.Kamara. PENALTY on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 32 - No Play. Penalty on NO-68-J.Andrews, Offensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:05SF Field goal
(8:05) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NO 0 — SF 3
Q2 · 0:19SF Touchdown
(:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — SF 10
Q3 · 10:30SF Field goal
(10:30) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NO 0 — SF 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	49ers
Offensive plays	53	65
Total yards	260	319 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	36%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

26/37, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

18/29, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

7 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

11 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

5/8 for 65 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

5/9 for 62 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 28	5	13	2:05	Fumble
2	SF	NO 43	11	38	4:54	Field goal +3
3	NO	NO 19	6	31	2:18	Punt
4	SF	SF 17	7	28	3:38	Punt
5	NO	NO 11	6	46	2:51	Punt
6	SF	SF 4	7	13	3:49	Punt
7	NO	SF 38	4	6	1:08	Punt
8	SF	SF 20	11	78	6:16	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 2	4	9	1:14	Punt
10	SF	SF 43	10	61	1:34	Touchdown +7
11	NO	NO 31	3	14	0:13	End of half
12	SF	SF 25	10	42	4:35	Field goal +3
13	NO	NO 25	13	50	6:18	Missed field goal
14	SF	SF 38	4	7	2:16	Punt
15	NO	NO 12	12	72	5:46	Fumble
16	SF	SF 1	4	4	1:30	Punt
17	NO	SF 39	9	19	3:17	Turnover on downs
18	SF	SF 11	11	48	6:18	End of game

3 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	18/29	204	0	0	1	0.3
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Andy Dalton	4	21	5.3	-0.2
Alvin Kamara	7	13	1.9	-6.8
Taysom Hill	6	13	2.2	-2.3
Mark Ingram	4	10	2.5	-0.1
Rashid Shaheed	1	6	6.0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	5	9	62	30%	0.3
Rashid Shaheed	2	3	53	10%	3.6
Alvin Kamara	6	7	37	23%	-5.2
Jarvis Landry	2	4	20	13%	0.9
Adam Trautman	1	1	17	3%	1.2
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	8	3%	0.1
Taysom Hill	1	2	7	7%	-1.0
Mark Ingram	0	1	0	3%	-1.1
Juwan Johnson	0	2	0	7%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kaden Elliss	8	3	0.0	0
Chris Harris	5	2	0.0	0
Demario Davis	1	6	0.0	1
Marcus Maye	1	4	0.0	0
Paulson Adebo	1	4	0.0	2
Shy Tuttle	3	1	1.0	0
Marcus Davenport	1	2	0.0	0
Alontae Taylor	2	1	0.0	0
David Onyemata	1	1	0.0	1
Kentavius Street	2	0	0.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	26/37	222	1	0	1	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	7	35	5.0	-0.1
Christian McCaffrey	11	32	2.9	-0.2
Jordan Mason	5	25	5.0	-0.5
Jimmy Garoppolo	4	4	1.0	-1.8
Deebo Samuel	2	0	0.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	5	8	65	0	22%	0.4
Jauan Jennings	6	7	49	1	19%	6.2
Deebo Samuel	3	7	43	0	19%	1.0
George Kittle	3	4	26	0	11%	0.6
Christian McCaffrey	4	6	17	0	16%	-2.3
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Elijah Mitchell	2	2	8	0	5%	-0.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	2	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Talanoa Hufanga	6	3	0.0	0
Fred Warner	5	1	0.0	2
Charvarius Ward	1	3	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	2	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	4	0	0.0	0
Dre Greenlaw	2	1	0.0	1
Nick Bosa	2	1	1.0	0
Jimmie Ward	1	2	0.0	1
Kerry Hyder	1	1	0.0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -9.5
Closing total: 44
NO moneyline: +327
SF moneyline: -392

49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 44; the game landed 13 — under by 31.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NO 7 days · SF 6 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Kyle Shanahan