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New Orleans Saints 0 at San Francisco 49ers 13. Final.
49ers -9.5 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 12
San Francisco 49ers 13, Saints 0 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:02, 1st and 10, on Alvin Kamara — 8.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:02 · 1st and 10
Alvin Kamara
49ers
(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 13.
San Francisco 49ers 13–0. Biggest swing: Q1 13:02, 49ers +8.2% win probability on one snap.
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ2 10:33(10:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum). PENALTY on SF-26-S.Womack, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 47.
3.7pts
Jimmy GaroppoloSaintsQ2 3:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at NO 2 for -1 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
5.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.48 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.27 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Saints149 of 158 plays carry both curves
(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
Swing +8.2 for 49ersExpected points +5.23 for 49ersThe model had Saints 25 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:02NO +8% win prob(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
2nd · 3:06NO +6% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at NO 2 for -1 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
2nd · 10:33NO +4% win prob(10:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum). PENALTY on SF-26-S.Womack, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 47.
2nd · 9:40NO +3% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 41-A.Kamara. PENALTY on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 32 - No Play. Penalty on NO-68-J.Andrews, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 7:55SF +3% win prob(7:55) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 82-A.Trautman to NO 36 for 17 yards (51-A.Al-Shaair). 13 YAC
1st · 1:24SF +3% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 89-R.Shaheed to 50 for 35 yards (38-D.Lenoir). 4 YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robbie Gould's 24-yard field goal with 8:05 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:05Robbie Gould·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+30–3
2nd0:19Jauan Jennings·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+70–10
3rd10:30Robbie Gould·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–13
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by category49ers
Saints0–849ers
260Total yards319
4.9Yards per play4.9
36%Success rate40%
36%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays5
12First downs19
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Saints: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.0249ers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Saints: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.0349ers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.48Saints: −0.48 expected points added per play
−0.1049ers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 65 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, 49ers 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers14.3%
inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 22.9%, 9.4 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Kamara left−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:02) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NO 43, RECOVERED by SF-56-S.Ebukam at NO 43.
Q1 13:02 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 40 · gained 1 · -5.23 EP · −11.0% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
35%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0977%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.0073%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.3873%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2330%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2478%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.060%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.4667%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 40
Saints049ers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Saints 5
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 45
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 11 to the 49ers 48
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Saints 49 to the 49ers 43
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the 49ers 17
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 32
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 2 to the Saints 11
Saints049ers9
Saints049ers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Saints 5
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Saints 39
3rd quarter35 plays
Saints049ers13
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Saints 27
No good14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the 49ers 23
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 19
4th quarter40 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Saints 37 to the 49ers 6
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the 49ers 5
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the 49ers 4
The period ended14 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the Saints 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
