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Dallas Cowboys 28, Giants 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:26, 3rd and 15, on Dalton Schultz — 17.6 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:26 · 3rd and 15
Dalton Schultz
Cowboys
(7:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward].
Dome
Cowboys closed -10.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 28–20. Biggest swing: Q3 7:26, Cowboys +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris MyarickGiantsQ1 11:35(11:35) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 85-C.Myarick to DAL 17 for 23 yards (7-T.Diggs).
9.8pts
Rodarius WilliamsGiantsQ1 7:15(7:15) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Williams [97-D.Lawrence] at NYG 30. 25-R.Williams ran ob at NYG 31 for 1 yard.
8.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Giants at 6 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 3 of 10 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(7:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward].
Swing +17.6 for CowboysExpected points +3.52 for CowboysThe model had Giants 16 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:26DAL +18% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward].
1st · 11:35DAL +10% win prob(11:35) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 85-C.Myarick to DAL 17 for 23 yards (7-T.Diggs).
1st · 7:15NYG +8% win prob(7:15) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Williams [97-D.Lawrence] at NYG 30. 25-R.Williams ran ob at NYG 31 for 1 yard.
2nd · 10:38DAL +8% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to DAL 1 for 44 yards (3-A.Brown).
3rd · 2:07DAL +6% win prob(2:07) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:11NYG +6% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley [6-D.Wilson].
2nd · 6:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalton Schultz's 15-yard touchdown catch with 7:26 left in the 3rd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:49Graham Gano·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
4th0:12Richie James·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+720–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants1–8Cowboys
300Total yards431
5.4Yards per play6.3
41%Success rate46%
30%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays13
17First downs23
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Giants: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.14Cowboys: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.37Cowboys: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.05Cowboys: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 56 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 68 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Cowboys 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 11.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 14.6% in week 11 against 41.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 15.6% in week 11 against 38.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cowboys19.4%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 16.8% and 1.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Jack AndersonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
65Nick GatesC · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Tyre PhillipsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%64 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time84%54 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation74%47 snaps
80Richie JamesWR · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
18Isaiah HodginsWR · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
83Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational44%28 snaps
85Chris MyarickTE · Rotational36%23 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Rotational30%19 snaps
31Matt BreidaRB · Rotational28%18 snaps
88Tanner HudsonTE · Situational22%14 snaps
23Gary BrightwellRB · Situational17%11 snaps
70Korey CunninghamT · Situational13%8 snaps
84Marcus JohnsonWR · Situational11%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jon FelicianoCAdoree' JacksonCBFabian MoreauCBShane LemieuxGJoshua EzeuduGEvan NealTDaniel BellingerTE
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward].
Q3 7:26 · Cowboys · 3rd & goal at NYG 15 · gained 15 · +3.52 EP · +17.0% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 93 yards from the DAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0188%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.5362%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.0145%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.1115%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.1018%
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back and four tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 40
Giants3Cowboys0
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 17
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 43
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 37
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Giants 31
2nd quarter52 plays
Giants3Cowboys6
Giants3Cowboys7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants9Cowboys7
Giants10Cowboys7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 27
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Intercepted14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 25
Giants13Cowboys7
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Cowboys 29
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Giants13Cowboys13
Giants13Cowboys14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 10
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
Giants13Cowboys20
Giants13Cowboys21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Giants 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 49
4th quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Giants13Cowboys27
Giants13Cowboys28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Giants 2
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 37
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Giants 28
Giants19Cowboys28
Giants20Cowboys28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -10.5
Closing total
45.5
Giants moneyline
+363
Cowboys moneyline
-441
Cowboys closed -10.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 48 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Giants 4 days · Cowboys 4 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DAL +6% win prob
(6:50) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 13-M.Gallup to NYG 48 for 25 yards (28-C.Flott, 20-J.Love).
2nd · 3:23DAL +6% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 85-N.Brown to NYG 30 for 5 yards (28-C.Flott). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 35 - No Play.
