2022 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 28, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -2.5 upsetO 40 ✓DomeColts closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 4:35, PIT +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:35PIT 16 — IND 10IND ball · 1st & 1IND 56%

(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:35PIT +26% win prob(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
Q4 · 0:30PIT +14% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 1-P.Campbell (20-C.Sutton) [97-C.Heyward].
Q3 · 1:27IND +12% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods to PIT 7 for 28 yards (55-D.Bush; 29-L.Wallace).
Q4 · 9:58IND +11% win prob(9:58) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:32PIT Field goal
(9:32) 4-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — IND 0
Q2 · 14:14PIT Field goal
(14:14) 4-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 6 — IND 0
Q2 · 7:51PIT Touchdown
(7:51) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 0
Q2 · 3:53IND Field goal
(3:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 3
Q2 · 0:59PIT Field goal
(:59) 4-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 16 — IND 3
Q3 · 13:08IND Touchdown
(13:08) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 16 — IND 10
Q3 · 0:20IND Touchdown
(:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 16 — IND 17
Q4 · 9:58PIT Touchdown
(9:58) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PIT 24 — IND 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Colts
Offensive plays	67	62
Total yards	327 (edge)	290
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	54% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	52%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

22/34, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

20/28, 174 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

20 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Benny SnellRB

12 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Jelani WoodsTE

8/9 for 98 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

7/11 for 61 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	11	58	5:33	Field goal +3
2	IND	IND 34	3	0	0:18	Interception
3	PIT	IND 38	7	0	4:11	Punt
4	IND	IND 20	4	0	1:58	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 39	8	27	3:51	Field goal +3
6	IND	IND 30	5	6	0:52	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 21	11	79	5:31	Touchdown +7
8	IND	IND 25	11	42	3:58	Field goal +3
9	PIT	PIT 25	13	68	2:52	Field goal +3
10	IND	IND 41	7	23	0:56	Missed field goal
11	IND	PIT 19	6	19	1:56	Touchdown +7
12	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:09	Punt
13	IND	IND 12	16	78	7:26	Fumble
14	PIT	PIT 7	4	8	1:32	Punt
15	IND	IND 45	7	55	2:41	Touchdown +7
16	PIT	PIT 25	13	62	5:21	Touchdown +8
17	IND	IND 25	5	0	2:05	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 27	7	16	3:58	Punt
19	IND	IND 7	11	67	3:28	Turnover on downs
20	PIT	PIT 27	1	0	0:24	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	20/28	174	0	0	3	-0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Benny Snell	12	62	5.2	1	3.7
Najee Harris	10	35	3.5	1	-0.3
Kenny Pickett	6	32	5.3	0	2.6
Anthony McFarland	6	30	5.0	0	0.8
Gunner Olszewski	1	9	9.0	0	0.7
Derek Watt	1	4	4.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	3	6	57	21%	4.1
Diontae Johnson	5	8	49	29%	1.8
Pat Freiermuth	3	4	39	14%	4.1
Anthony McFarland	2	2	11	7%	-0.5
Steven Sims	2	3	9	11%	-1.0
Benny Snell	1	1	6	4%	-0.8
Najee Harris	1	1	4	4%	-0.1
Cody White	1	1	2	4%	-0.4
Derek Watt	1	1	1	4%	-0.2
Zach Gentry	1	1	-4	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Arthur Maulet	5	5	1.0	0
Devin Bush	1	6	0.0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	2	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	4	2	1.0	0
Levi Wallace	3	2	0.0	2
Terrell Edmunds	3	2	1.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	3	2	0.0	0
Myles Jack	3	2	0.0	0
Montravius Adams	1	2	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	1	1	0.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	22/34	199	1	1	3	-5.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	20	86	4.3	1	-1.2
Matt Ryan	4	22	5.5	0	-3.5
Zack Moss	1	2	2.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jelani Woods	8	9	98	0	28%	7.5
Michael Pittman	7	11	61	1	34%	-2.5
Mo Alie-Cox	2	3	14	0	9%	-1.1
Parris Campbell	2	3	14	0	9%	-0.8
Jonathan Taylor	3	4	12	0	13%	-0.5
Alec Pierce	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zaire Franklin	4	6	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	7	3	0.0	1
Stephon Gilmore	4	3	0.0	0
Rodney McLeod	3	3	0.0	1
E.J. Speed	1	4	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	4	1	0.0	0
Bobby Okereke	2	2	0.0	0
Julian Blackmon	2	2	0.0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	3	1	2.0	0
Dayo Odeyingbo	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -2.5
Closing total: 40
PIT moneyline: +116
IND moneyline: -128

Colts closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: PIT 8 days · IND 8 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Jeff Saturday