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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Steelers161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
Swing −25.8 for ColtsExpected points −6.40 for ColtsThe model had Steelers 4 points higher than the market did.play 120
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:35PIT +26% win prob(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
4th · 0:30PIT +14% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 1-P.Campbell (20-C.Sutton) [97-C.Heyward].
3rd · 1:27IND +12% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods to PIT 7 for 28 yards (55-D.Bush; 29-L.Wallace).
4th · 9:58IND +11% win prob(9:58) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:36IND +11% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth pushed ob at IND 3 for 17 yards (23-K.Moore).
4th · 15:00IND +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens to PIT 39 for 13 yards (31-B.Facyson). PENALTY on IND-45-E.Speed, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 39.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Benny Snell's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 9:58 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:32Matthew Wright·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
2nd14:14Matthew Wright·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+36–0
3rd0:20Michael Pittman·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+716–17
4th9:58Benny Snell·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+824–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryColts
Steelers6–1Colts
327Total yards290
4.9Yards per play4.7
54%Success rate42%
50%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays5
22First downs17
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.16Colts: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Steelers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.27Colts: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 67 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Colts’s 62 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Colts 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
IND's blitz rate sent, 29.4%, is past their previous high of 22.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 11.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
PIT's play-action rate, 29.4%, is past their previous high of 18.9% in week 2 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 11.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 20.5%, is past their previous high of 16.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Colts8.6%
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteIND's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 29.4%, 14.1 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 2.2 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan FUMBLES−25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
Q3 4:35 · Colts · 1st & goal at PIT 1 · gained nothing · -6.40 EP · −25.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 87 yards from the IND 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1761%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1644%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0958%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0740%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Steelers3Colts0
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Colts 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Colts 24
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Colts 36
2nd quarter57 plays
Steelers6Colts0
Field goal2 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Colts 34
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 36
Steelers12Colts0
Steelers13Colts0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Colts 6
Steelers13Colts3
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Steelers 33
Steelers16Colts3
Field goal16 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Colts 7
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 41 to the Steelers 41
3rd quarter44 plays
Steelers16Colts9
Steelers16Colts10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost18 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Steelers 1
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 7 to the Steelers 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Steelers16Colts16
Steelers16Colts17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Steelers 6
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers22Colts17
Steelers24Colts17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Colts 2
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Steelers 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -2.5
Closing total
40
Steelers moneyline
+116
Colts moneyline
-128
Colts closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Steelers 8 days · Colts 8 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Jeff Saturday
3rd · 4:39
IND +10% win prob
(4:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Woods. PENALTY on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 6 - No Play.
1st · 9:16PIT +10% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Pierre at IND 38. 42-J.Pierre to IND 38 for no gain (11-M.Pittman).
