For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 28, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 12
It turned at Q3 4:35, 1st and 1 — 25.8 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 4:35, Steelers +25.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:35 · 1st and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
25.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Benny Snell's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 9:58 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryColts
Steelers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 67 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Colts’s 62 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Colts 3.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's blitz rate sent, 29.4%, is past their previous high of 22.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
PIT's play-action rate, 29.4%, is past their previous high of 18.9% in week 2 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
PIT's sack or hit rate, 20.5%, is past their previous high of 16.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-5.8 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 66 snaps
Colts-4.6 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Steelers48.1%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 52 early downs
Colts59.6%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Steelers29.4%off script — faked the run · +15.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+2.12× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Colts7.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Steelers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −18.3 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Colts50.0%right on their number · +13.7 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±34.8 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers25.6%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Colts29.4%off script — sent pressure · +14.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+2.15× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Steelers20.5%leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Colts8.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
IND's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 29.4%, 14.1 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 2.2 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
22/34, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
20/28, 174 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
7/11 for 61 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Najee Harris banked 4.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.1 | +2.0 | 100% | 100% | 34% | 37% | 7/11, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.8 | +0.7 | 92% | 90% | 13% | 0% | 20 car, 86 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 12 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.8 | +4.3 | 64% | 69% | 28% | 35% | 8/9, 98 yd |
| Benny SnellRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | +4.1 | 41% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 12 car, 62 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 12.2 | −8.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/28, 174 yd · 6 car, 32 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB | 10.9 | +4.4 | 29% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 4 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | −2.5 | 78% | 94% | 21% | 53% | 3/6, 57 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/34, 199 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 22 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | −4.7 | 96% | 100% | 29% | 34% | 5/8, 49 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −0.5 | 71% | 86% | 14% | 17% | 3/4, 39 yd |
| Anthony McFarlandRB | 6.1 | 0.0 | 30% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 6 car, 30 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.4 | 34% | 33% | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.4 | 88% | 90% | 9% | 11% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.3 | 35% | 40% | 11% | 5% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 1.5 | −3.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 14% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.2 | 30% | 14% | 0% | — | 1 car, 9 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −1.0 | 52% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -4 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 70% | 74% | 6% | 14% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 34% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 14% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:35) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, RECOVERED by PIT-95-C.Wormley at PIT 7.
Q3 4:35 · Colts · 1st & goal at PIT 1 · gained nothing · -6.40 EP · −25.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 87 yards from the IND 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers3
Colts0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Steelers6Colts0Steelers12Colts0Steelers13Colts0Steelers13Colts3Steelers16Colts3Steelers16Colts9Steelers16Colts10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Steelers16Colts16Steelers16Colts17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Steelers22Colts17Steelers24Colts17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 20/28 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −0.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Najee Harris | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Kenny Pickett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 21% | +4.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Maulet | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/34 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_12_PIT_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 32 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| +2.6 |
| Anthony McFarland | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| 29% |
| +1.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 14% | +4.1 |
| Anthony McFarland | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Cody White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montravius Adams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jelani Woods | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 | 28% | +7.5 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 11 | 61 | 1 | 34% | −2.5 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −0.5 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| E.J. Speed | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
