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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 at Cleveland Browns 23. Final.
Buccaneers -3 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 12
Cleveland Browns 23, Buccaneers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 0:56, 3rd and 4, on Amari Cooper — 48.0 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 0:56 · 3rd and 4
Amari Cooper
Browns
(:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 3 for 45 yards (30-D.Delaney).
U 42 ✓
16.9 mph wind
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 23–17. Biggest swing: OT 0:56, Browns +48.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
48.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsOT 5:39(5:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to TB 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-J.Darden to TB 35 for 13 yards (10-A.Schwartz). PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 29.
47.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersOT 2:54(2:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CLE 29, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-79-P.O'Connor.
46.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Browns at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 7 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Buccaneers186 of 198 plays carry both curves
(:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brisset
Swing +48.0 for BrownsExpected points +3.98 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:56CLE +48% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 3 for 45 yards (30-D.Delaney).
Overtime · 5:39CLE +47% win prob(5:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to TB 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-J.Darden to TB 35 for 13 yards (10-A.Schwartz). PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 29.
Overtime · 2:54CLE +46% win prob(2:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CLE 29, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-79-P.O'Connor.
4th · 0:02TB +24% win prob(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right (22-G.Delpit).
Overtime · 7:35CLE +23% win prob(7:35) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CLE 15, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 6 yards (57-U.Gilbert).
4th · 0:37CLE +21% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 0:24 left in overtime put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime0:24Nick Chubb·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+617–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBrowns
Buccaneers4–4Browns
325Total yards367
4.9Yards per play4.9
38%Success rate37%
27%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays8
14First downs20
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.02Browns: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Buccaneers: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.15Browns: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Browns’s 75 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 2, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Browns10.9%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 24.0 points below their season mean of 57.4% and 1.0 times their own 23.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Brissett pass+48% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 3 for 45 yards (30-D.Delaney).
OT 0:56 · Browns · 3rd & 4 at TB 48 · gained 45 · +3.98 EP · +48.0% win probability
184 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
34%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.0759%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1178%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.3963%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.7271%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Buccaneers0Browns6
Buccaneers0Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Buccaneers 31
Buccaneers6Browns7
Buccaneers7Browns7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Browns 10
Buccaneers7Browns10
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 48
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 29
No good11 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Buccaneers 14
Buccaneers10Browns10
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Browns 24
Intercepted5 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Browns 47
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers16Browns10
Buccaneers17Browns10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Browns 5
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 48
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Browns 37
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Browns 48
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Browns 33
The period ended6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers17Browns16
Buccaneers17Browns17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Buccaneers 11
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Browns 48
Overtime32 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Punt12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Browns 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThree
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Buccaneers17Browns23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Buccaneers 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3
Closing total
42
Buccaneers moneyline
-169
Browns moneyline
+151
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the south; 0.10 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Buccaneers 14 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteWind at 16.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 9:01CLE +15% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 47 for 7 yards (31-T.Graham).
Overtime · 0:24CLE +14% win prob(:24) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-22-K.Neal, Defensive Offside, declined.
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBrowns
Buccaneers0
Browns6
