2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cleveland BrownsWinner

TB -3 upsetU 42 ✓Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 23–17. Biggest swing: OT 0:56, CLE +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:56TB 17 — CLE 17CLE ball · 3rd & 4TB 59%

(:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brisset

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:56CLE +48% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 3 for 45 yards (30-D.Delaney).
OT · 5:39CLE +47% win prob(5:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to TB 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-J.Darden to TB 35 for 13 yards (10-A.Schwartz). PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 29.
OT · 2:54CLE +46% win prob(2:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CLE 29, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-79-P.O'Connor.
Q4 · 0:02TB +24% win prob(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right (22-G.Delpit).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:53CLE Touchdown
(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-A.Schwartz right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Handoff to 27 K.Hunt pitch to 10. A.Schwartz (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — CLE 7
Q1 · 5:17TB Touchdown
(5:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — CLE 7
Q1 · 2:27CLE Field goal
(2:27) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: TB 7 — CLE 10
Q2 · 0:43TB Field goal
(:43) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 10 — CLE 10
Q3 · 7:44TB Touchdown
(7:44) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 41-K.Kieft for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — CLE 10
Q4 · 0:37CLE Touchdown
(:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — CLE 17
OT · 0:24CLE Touchdown
(:24) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-22-K.Neal, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: TB 17 — CLE 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Browns
Offensive plays	66	75
Total yards	325	367 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	38% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	70%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	5/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

29/43, 246 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Jacoby BrissettQB

23/37, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.8 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

26 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

14 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

12/13 for 110 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

7/12 for 94 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 22	9	78	4:15	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 25	11	80	5:34	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 25	8	27	2:49	Field goal +3
4	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:14	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 32	8	21	4:07	Punt
6	TB	TB 20	4	8	2:08	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 30	10	59	6:00	Missed field goal
8	TB	TB 29	10	57	3:14	Field goal +3
9	CLE	CLE 43	5	4	0:39	Interception
10	TB	TB 25	5	0	2:09	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 42	4	0	1:22	Punt
12	TB	TB 20	8	80	3:48	Touchdown +7
13	CLE	CLE 25	7	23	2:38	Punt
14	TB	TB 11	4	4	2:09	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 38	4	-12	2:41	Punt
16	TB	TB 30	7	25	2:40	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 20	7	36	4:13	Turnover on downs
18	TB	TB 45	4	7	1:28	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 5	10	13	4:17	Punt
20	TB	TB 20	4	-10	0:25	Punt
21	CLE	TB 46	7	46	1:38	Touchdown +7
22	TB	TB 25	5	27	0:32	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 25	10	23	2:34	Punt
24	CLE	CLE 21	4	1	1:59	Punt
25	TB	TB 19	6	16	2:42	Punt
26	CLE	CLE 29	6	71	2:26	Touchdown +6

7 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	29/43	246	2	0	3	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	14	64	4.6	-3.8
Julio Jones	1	15	15.0	1.6
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	4	15	3.8	0.2
Tom Brady	1	2	2.0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	12	13	110	1	31%	6.1
Rachaad White	9	9	45	0	21%	1.7
Julio Jones	3	4	40	0	10%	-0.6
Mike Evans	2	9	31	0	21%	-3.6
Cameron Brate	2	5	15	0	12%	-2.9
Ko Kieft	1	1	5	1	2%	1.8
Breshad Perriman	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	7	5	0.5	0	1
Lavonte David	5	3	0.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	3	4	0.5	0	0
Anthony Nelson	4	1	1.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	3	2	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	1	0.0	0	2
Mike Edwards	0	4	0.0	1	1
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	3	1	1.0	0	0
Carl Nassib	2	1	0.5	0	0
Dee Delaney	3	0	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	23/37	210	1	1	4	-5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	26	116	4.5	1	0.5
Anthony Schwartz	1	31	31.0	1	3.0
Jacoby Brissett	2	27	13.5	0	2.7
Kareem Hunt	5	15	3.0	0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	7	12	94	0	33%	-0.0
David Njoku	5	7	29	1	19%	3.0
David Bell	4	6	23	0	17%	-1.0
Anthony Schwartz	1	2	17	0	6%	1.1
Nick Chubb	1	1	16	0	3%	1.1
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	4	16	0	11%	-2.2
Harrison Bryant	2	2	9	0	6%	0.2
Kareem Hunt	1	2	6	0	6%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	5	3	0.0	1
Sione Takitaki	3	3	0.0	0
Thomas Graham Jr.	5	1	0.0	0
John Johnson	4	2	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	5	1	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	3	2	0.0	1
Tony Fields	3	1	0.0	0
Martin Emerson	3	1	0.0	4
Jadeveon Clowney	1	3	0.5	0
Jordan Elliott	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 42
TB moneyline: -169
CLE moneyline: +151

Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: TB 14 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Kevin Stefanski