2022 Week 13 · Thu, Dec 1, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New England Patriots

BUF -3.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Buffalo Bills 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 4:55, NE +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:55BUF 3 — NE 6NE ball · 2nd & 5BUF 68%

(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:55NE +11% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:23NE +9% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 20-N.Hines pushed ob at NE 28 for 21 yards (55-J.Uche; 30-M.Wilson) [9-M.Judon].
Q2 · 15:00NE +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:14BUF +6% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle. Penalty on NE-69-C.Strange, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 8.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:06BUF Field goal
(8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — NE 0
Q1 · 4:55NE Touchdown
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 3 — NE 7
Q2 · 15:00BUF Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NE 7
Q2 · 5:34BUF Touchdown
(5:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — NE 7
Q4 · 14:34BUF Touchdown
(14:34) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 24 — NE 7
Q4 · 1:57NE Field goal
(1:57) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: BUF 24 — NE 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	68	51
Total yards	359 (edge)	242
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	46% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	54%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	9/14 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

22/33, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

22/36, 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.8 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

14 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

10 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/9 for 92 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Isaiah McKenzieWR

5/5 for 44 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 20	5	9	2:03	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 33	9	52	4:55	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 25	7	77	3:16	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 18	11	60	4:50	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 9	5	15	1:43	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 44	15	56	7:46	Touchdown +7
7	NE	NE 25	5	0	1:23	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 29	4	2	1:09	Punt
9	NE	NE 15	4	3	0:52	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 43	5	26	0:43	Fumble
11	NE	NE 42	8	29	1:10	Missed field goal
12	BUF	BUF 38	2	0	0:10	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 25	9	43	3:15	Punt
14	NE	NE 20	8	31	3:19	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 6	16	94	8:55	Touchdown +7
16	NE	NE 28	6	18	2:21	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 12	7	26	4:32	Punt
18	NE	NE 22	17	60	5:45	Field goal +3
19	BUF	NE 45	4	0	1:53	End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 94 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	22/33	223	2	0	2	11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	14	64	4.6	0	-1.5
Devin Singletary	13	51	3.9	1	1.7
Josh Allen	8	20	2.5	0	-1.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	7	9	92	1	27%	7.9
Isaiah McKenzie	5	5	44	0	15%	4.5
James Cook	6	6	41	0	18%	1.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	21	0	6%	2.9
Gabe Davis	2	7	15	1	21%	0.8
Khalil Shakir	1	1	10	0	3%	0.3
Devin Singletary	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.1
Dawson Knox	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	5	1	0.0	0
Matt Milano	5	1	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	1	0.0	1
Gregory Rousseau	1	3	0.0	1
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0.0	1
Taron Johnson	2	1	0.0	2
Damar Hamlin	2	1	0.0	1
Shaq Lawson	3	0	0.0	0
Siran Neal	2	0	0.0	0
A.J. Epenesa	2	0	1.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	22/36	195	1	0	1	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	10	54	5.4	0.7
Mac Jones	3	7	2.3	-1.8
Kevin Harris	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marcus Jones	2	2	51	1	6%	3.9
Tyquan Thornton	2	3	31	0	9%	2.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	6	8	24	0	24%	-0.1
Jakobi Meyers	3	5	22	0	15%	-2.3
Nelson Agholor	2	3	17	0	9%	0.7
DeVante Parker	2	4	16	0	12%	1.4
Kendrick Bourne	1	2	15	0	6%	0.5
Hunter Henry	2	5	13	0	15%	-1.8
Jonnu Smith	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Davon Godchaux	2	7	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	6	2	0.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	3	0.0	0
Joshua Uche	4	1	2.0	0
Devin McCourty	3	2	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	2	2	0.0	0
Kyle Dugger	4	0	0.0	2
Jack Jones	4	0	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	3	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
BUF moneyline: -185
NE moneyline: +165

Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: BUF 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.