For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 13 · Thu, Dec 1, 2022 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 13
It turned at Q1 4:55, 2nd and 5, on Marcus Jones — 11.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 4:55, Patriots +11.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:55 · 2nd and 5
Marcus Jones
Patriots
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Stefon Diggs's 8-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Stefon Diggs8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh AllenLead never changed again+710–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 68 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Patriots’s 51 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Patriots 2.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate, 73.7%, is past their previous high of 69.8% in week 12 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.1% in week 12 against 46.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 12 against 10.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-4.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.2 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 68 snaps
Patriots-0.8 ptsright on their number · +0.5 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 86%
Tendencies room →Bills46.3%leaned — ran early · −14.3 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 54 early downs
Patriots73.7%leaned — passed early · +17.4 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 45%
Tendencies room →Bills18.9%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Patriots13.2%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 59%
Tendencies room →Bills7.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots18.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Bills10.5%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots16.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.7%, 17.4 points above their season mean of 56.3% and 1.8 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
22/33, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
22/36, 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.8 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Stefon Diggs banked 4.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.2 | +4.0 | 73% | 86% | 27% | 52% | 7/9, 92 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 223 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 20 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | 0.0 | 43% | 43% | 18% | 1% | 14 car, 64 yd · 6/6, 41 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.8 | −1.9 | 98% | 100% | 24% | 0% | 10 car, 54 yd · 6/8, 24 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 12.5 | +0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/36, 195 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 11.1 | −0.9 | 44% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 13 car, 51 yd, 1 TD · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 9.5 | −5.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +2.1 | 52% | 70% | 15% | 8% | 5/5, 44 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.7 | 57% | 63% | 15% | 18% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −0.2 | 39% | 37% | 9% | 34% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −1.4 | 56% | 53% | 9% | 17% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.0 | 87% | 84% | 12% | 21% | 2/4, 16 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −4.7 | 87% | 84% | 15% | 15% | 2/5, 13 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 2.8 | −2.8 | 31% | 30% | 6% | 5% | 2 car, -3 yd · 1/2, 21 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.1 | 31% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.3 | 37% | 42% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.4 | 21% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 84% | 97% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tommy SweeneyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kevin HarrisRB | -0.1 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:55 · Patriots · 2nd & 5 at BUF 48 · gained 48 · +4.22 EP · +13.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 94 yards from the BUF 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Bills3
Patriots0How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Bills3Patriots6Bills3Patriots7Bills9Patriots7Bills10Patriots7Bills16Patriots7Bills17Patriots7Bills23Patriots7Bills24Patriots7Bills24Patriots10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/33 | 223 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +11.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Josh Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 92 | 1 | 27% | +7.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/36 | 195 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_13_BUF_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 8 |
| 20 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −1.6 |
| +4.5 |
| James Cook | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 18% | +1.2 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6% | +2.9 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 21% | +0.8 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Damar Hamlin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaq Lawson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Kevin Harris | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 6% | +3.9 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +2.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 24% | −0.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 15% | −2.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | +0.7 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 15% | −1.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
