For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:29 PM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 24 at New England Patriots 10. Final.
Bills -3.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
Buffalo Bills 24, Patriots 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:55, 2nd and 5, on Marcus Jones — 11.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:55 · 2nd and 5
Marcus Jones
Patriots
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Buffalo Bills 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 4:55, Patriots +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nyheim Miller-HinesBillsQ1 11:23(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 20-N.Hines pushed ob at NE 28 for 21 yards (55-J.Uche; 30-M.Wilson) [9-M.Judon].
8.5pts
Stefon DiggsBillsQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bills157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.2 for PatriotsExpected points +4.22 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 16 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:55NE +11% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:23NE +9% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 20-N.Hines pushed ob at NE 28 for 21 yards (55-J.Uche; 30-M.Wilson) [9-M.Judon].
2nd · 15:00NE +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:14BUF +6% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle. Penalty on NE-69-C.Strange, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 8.
1st · 2:34NE +6% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 13-G.Davis. PENALTY on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at BUF 35 - No Play.
1st · 8:06NE +5% win prob(8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 8-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:06Tyler Bass·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+33–0
1st4:55Marcus Jones·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+73–7
4th1:57Nick Folk·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Cardona+324–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills6–3Patriots
359Total yards242
5.3Yards per play4.7
46%Success rate39%
64%Third-down rate25%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays4
21First downs12
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.15Patriots: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 68 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Patriots’s 51 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Patriots 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 73.7%, is past their previous high of 69.8% in week 12 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.1% in week 12 against 46.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 12 against 10.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots16.2%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.7%, 17.4 points above their season mean of 56.3% and 1.8 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:55 · Patriots · 2nd & 5 at BUF 48 · gained 48 · +4.22 EP · +13.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 94 yards from the BUF 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
597
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0876%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2576%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.0025%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1850%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.1714%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Bills3Patriots0
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Patriots 28
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, two receivers and one backDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Bills3Patriots6
Bills3Patriots7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 48
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Patriots 5
2nd quarter57 plays
Bills9Patriots7
Bills10Patriots7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 17
Bills16Patriots7
Bills17Patriots7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 44 to the Patriots 8
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 31
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 18
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Patriots 41
The period ended11 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Bills 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 41
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Bills 44
The period ended14 plays, from the Bills 6 to the Patriots 9
4th quarter42 plays
Bills23Patriots7
Bills24Patriots7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 1
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 46
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 40
Bills24Patriots10
Field goal20 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Bills 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -3.5
Closing total
43.5
Bills moneyline
-185
Patriots moneyline
+165
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Bills 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:11NE +5% win prob(14:11) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 17 for 16 yards (50-G.Rousseau; 27-T.White).
2nd · 1:31BUF +5% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at NE 47 for -6 yards (55-J.Uche). FUMBLES (55-J.Uche) [55-J.Uche], RECOVERED by NE-9-M.Judon at NE 41. 9-M.Judon to NE 42 for 1 yard (17-J.Allen, 88-D.Knox).
