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Cleveland Browns 27, Texans 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:00, 4th and 2 — 14.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:00 · 4th and 2
Unnamed on the sheet
Browns
(4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Browns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Cleveland Browns 27–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:00, Browns +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen PitreTexansQ1 3:35(3:35) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre [50-M.Dwumfour] at HOU -3. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 26 for 29 yards (77-W.Teller).
14.1pts
Kyle AllenBrownsQ3 10:15(10:15) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen up the middle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (42-T.Fields). FUMBLES (42-T.Fields), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at HOU 4. 21-D.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 12 on third down, against Texans at 1 of 12 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.23 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.44 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Browns164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.7 for TexansExpected points −5.56 for TexansThe model had Texans 26 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:00CLE +15% win prob(4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:35CLE +14% win prob(3:35) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre [50-M.Dwumfour] at HOU -3. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 26 for 29 yards (77-W.Teller).
3rd · 10:15CLE +13% win prob(10:15) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen up the middle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (42-T.Fields). FUMBLES (42-T.Fields), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at HOU 4. 21-D.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:46HOU +10% win prob(9:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.
2nd · 9:35HOU +7% win prob(9:35) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper to CLE 9 for 8 yards (48-C.Harris).
4th · 9:36CLE +6% win prob(9:36) 3-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 33-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 42-T.Fields (69-C.Winovich) at HOU 16. 42-T.Fields for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Donovan Peoples-Jones's 76-yard return touchdown with 4:00 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:06Ka'imi Fairbairn·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+30–3
2nd12:00Roy Lopez·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+20–5
2nd4:00Donovan Peoples-Jones·76-yd return TD76-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+77–5
4th4:06Cade York·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+327–8
4th2:00Nico Collins·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyle Allenfrom Kyle Allen · two-point no good+627–14
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryTexans
Browns5–4Texans
305Total yards283
5.3Yards per play4.6
38%Success rate40%
33%Third-down rate8%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays3
14First downs15
1Sacks taken0
2Turnovers3
The read
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.44Texans: −0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Browns: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.48Texans: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Browns: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.38Texans: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 58 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Texans’s 62 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Browns 1, Texans 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 34.8%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 6.4 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 12 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 13.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.1 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
HOU's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 14.0% in week 12 against 33.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 57.4 points below their season mean of 57.4% and 2.5 times their own 23.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtG · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%63 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Full-time98%62 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Full-time95%60 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Full-time95%60 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Full-time95%60 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Full-time81%51 snaps
84Pharaoh BrownTE · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
25Demetric FeltonRB · Heavy rotation60%38 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation57%36 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational38%24 snaps
74Christopher HubbardT · Rotational30%19 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Situational11%7 snaps
10Anthony SchwartzWR · Situational8%5 snaps
66James HudsonT · Situational5%3 snaps
70Drew ForbesG · Situational5%3 snaps
18David BellWR · Situational5%3 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Thomas GrahamCBIsaiah ThomasDETommy TogiaiDTKellen MondQBDavid NjokuTEMike WoodsWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Heck reported−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:15) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen up the middle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (42-T.Fields). FUMBLES (42-T.Fields), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at HOU 4. 21-D.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:15 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at HOU 1 · gained 1 · -6.19 EP · −22.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
38%
Yards
587
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31+0.0248%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1362%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.6381%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.2467%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8-0.9738%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.3713%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1140%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 43 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 35
Browns0Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 16
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Texans 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Browns 28
2nd quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 1
Browns0Texans5
Drive ended3 plays, from the Browns 1 to the Browns 2
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 44
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 1 to the Browns 36
Browns6Texans5
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 16
Browns7Texans5
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Browns 46
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 31
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Texans 46
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns13Texans5
Touchdown2 plays
Browns14Texans5
Browns14Texans8
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Browns 15
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 21 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 20
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Browns17Texans8
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Texans 25
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns23Texans8
Touchdown2 plays
Browns24Texans8
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 36
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 27
Browns27Texans8
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 24
Browns27Texans14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Browns 6
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
