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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 13
It turned at Q2 4:00, 4th and 2 — 14.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 27–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:00, Browns +14.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:00 · 4th and 2
Unnamed on the sheet
Browns
(4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 12 on third down, against Texans at 1 of 12 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.23 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.44 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Donovan Peoples-Jones's 76-yard return touchdown with 4:00 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Donovan Peoples-Jones76-yd return TD76-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+77–59 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryTexans
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 58 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Texans’s 62 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Browns 1, Texans 4.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 34.8%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 6.4 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 12 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.1 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
HOU's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 14.0% in week 12 against 33.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-15.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.1 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 58 snaps
Texans0.4 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 87%
Tendencies room →Browns34.8%leaned — ran early · −15.4 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 46 early downs
Texans61.7%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Browns33.3%leaned — faked the run · +14.6 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Texans38.5%leaned — faked the run · +13.3 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Browns0.0%off script — took the kick · −57.4 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (−2.48× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans28.6%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 55%
Tendencies room →Browns23.1%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans33.3%leaned — sent pressure · +15.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Browns5.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans8.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 57.4 points below their season mean of 57.4% and 2.5 times their own 23.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
20/39, 201 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-19.2 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
12/22, 131 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.6 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Donovan Peoples-Jones banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +8.2 | 95% | 96% | 14% | 17% | 3/3, 44 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.5 | −0.8 | 72% | 63% | 8% | 0% | 18 car, 73 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.5 | −9.9 | 72% | 73% | 27% | 58% | 3/10, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −0.5 | 38% | 54% | 14% | 13% | 9 car, 56 yd · 2/3, 18 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +0.4 | 37% | 38% | 14% | 11% | 4/5, 46 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −2.5 | 51% | 46% | 5% | 2% | 17 car, 80 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.0 | −9.2 | 81% | 100% | 43% | 57% | 4/9, 40 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +3.0 | 55% | 48% | 8% | 7% | 3/3, 46 yd |
| Kyle AllenQB · Starter QB | 6.1 | −16.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/39, 201 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 5.3 | −6.4 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 12/22, 131 yd, 1 INT · 7 car, 21 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −4.3 | 52% | 65% | 16% | 4% | 3/6, 21 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 4.1 | −3.0 | 22% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 8 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.8 | 71% | 80% | 8% | 6% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.1 | 57% | 67% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 63% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.3 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | 60% | 67% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Troy HairstonRB | 0.0 | −4.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −7.2 | 71% | 63% | 8% | 17% | 0/3, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:15) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen up the middle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (42-T.Fields). FUMBLES (42-T.Fields), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at HOU 4. 21-D.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:15 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at HOU 1 · gained 1 · -6.19 EP · −22.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Browns0
Texans3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Browns0Texans5Browns6Texans5Browns7Texans5How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
Browns13Texans5Browns14Texans5Browns14Texans8Browns17Texans8How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Browns23Texans8Browns24Texans8Browns27Texans8Browns27Texans14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 12/22 | 131 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Deshaun Watson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sione Takitaki | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 20/39 | 201 | 1 | 2 | 0 | −19.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_13_CLE_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 21 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.8 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| 43% |
| −5.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 14% | +2.4 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | −5.1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Demetric Felton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| David Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Wright | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greedy Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Fields | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Myles Garrett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taven Bryan | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −8.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brevin Jordan | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 14% | +2.3 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 8% | +5.0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 27% | −2.1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 16% | −5.1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | −8.9 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −4.8 |
| Troy Hairston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Harris | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
