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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:29 PM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver9
BY 1final margin
RavensBaltimore10
Denver Broncos 9 at Baltimore Ravens 10. Final.
Ravens -9.5 no coverU 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
Baltimore Ravens 10, Broncos 9 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 6, on Brandon McManus — 32.6 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 6
Brandon McManus
Ravens
(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Ravens closed -9.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 10–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Ravens +32.6% win probability on one snap.
32.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin SimmonsBroncosQ3 6:06(6:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons [53-J.Cooper] at BAL 48. 31-J.Simmons to BAL 40 for 8 yards.
18.5pts
Justin SimmonsBroncosQ4 12:23(12:23) (Shotgun) 3-J.Proche pass deep right intended for 17-K.Drake INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
20.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Broncos155 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Swing +32.6 for RavensExpected points +0.98 for RavensThe model had Broncos 13 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02DEN +33% win prob(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
4th · 12:23DEN +21% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 3-J.Proche pass deep right intended for 17-K.Drake INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -4. Touchback.
3rd · 6:06DEN +18% win prob(6:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons [53-J.Cooper] at BAL 48. 31-J.Simmons to BAL 40 for 8 yards.
4th · 1:06BAL +14% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left tackle to DEN 15 for 3 yards (47-J.Jewell).
4th · 2:00BAL +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play.
4th · 0:31BAL +12% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Huntley's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:31 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:09Brandon McManus·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
2nd5:58Justin Tucker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–3
2nd0:42Brandon McManus·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–3
3rd4:03Brandon McManus·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+39–3
4th0:31Tyler Huntley·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+79–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryRavens
Broncos4–5Ravens
272Total yards285
5.2Yards per play4.2
35%Success rate38%
17%Third-down rate23%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
11First downs17
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Broncos: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.21Ravens: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Broncos: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.01Ravens: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 52 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Ravens’s 68 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 0, Ravens 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 63.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
DEN's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 26.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 12.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, −11.3 pts, is past their previous low of −7.8 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 51.4% in week 12 against 15.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Ravens15.4%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 24.2 points above their season mean of 50.8% and 1.9 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
76Calvin AndersonT · Every snap100%53 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%53 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%53 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%53 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%53 snaps
9Kendall HintonWR · Heavy rotation77%41 snaps
80Greg DulcichTE · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
87Eric TomlinsonTE · Heavy rotation51%27 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Rotational49%26 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational47%25 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational43%23 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational38%20 snaps
26Mike BooneRB · Situational23%12 snaps
12Montrell WashingtonWR · Situational15%8 snaps
37Marlon MackRB · Situational9%5 snaps
15Jalen VirgilWR · Situational8%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael OjemudiaCBK'Waun WilliamsCBJonathan HarrisDEAnthony HarrisFSDakota AllenOLBAlbert OkwuegbunamTEAndrew BeckTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brandon McManus−46% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q4 0:02 · Broncos · 2nd & 6 at BAL 45 · gained nothing · -0.98 EP · −46.0% win probability
153 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 91 yards from the BAL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
36%
Yards
557
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.3658%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2148%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.3448%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.0780%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.3620%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1656%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.6138%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Broncos3Ravens0
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Ravens 33
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 28
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 29
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 47
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 24
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 33
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 38
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 35
Broncos3Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Broncos 8
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 30
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Broncos6Ravens3
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Ravens 23
Drive ended6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
The period ended1 play
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Broncos 45
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 34
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 42
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 40
Broncos9Ravens3
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 22 to midfield
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 29
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 36
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 36
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Ravens 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Broncos9Ravens9
Broncos9Ravens10
Touchdown21 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Broncos 2
No good7 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Ravens 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
