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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 13
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 6, on Brandon McManus — 32.6 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 10–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Ravens +32.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 6
Brandon McManus
Ravens
(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
32.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Huntley's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:31 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 52 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Ravens’s 68 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 0, Ravens 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 63.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
DEN's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 26.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected, −11.3 pts, is past their previous low of −7.8 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate, 42.5%, is past their previous low of 49.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 51.4% in week 12 against 15.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-11.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.8 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 52 snaps
Ravens-3.1 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Broncos42.5%leaned — ran early · −13.6 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 40 early downs
Ravens75.0%leaned — passed early · +24.2 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+1.89× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Broncos38.5%leaned — faked the run · +20.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Ravens15.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Broncos0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.1 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens37.5%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 34.5%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 8 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 59%
Tendencies room →Broncos28.3%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Ravens42.3%leaned — sent pressure · +15.8 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 30%
Tendencies room →Broncos10.9%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Ravens15.4%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
BAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 24.2 points above their season mean of 50.8% and 1.9 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
17/22, 189 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.8 expected points added · +16.0% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
27/32, 187 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.1 expected points added · +16.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerry Jeudy banked 5.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | −4.2 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 27/32, 187 yd, 1 INT · 10 car, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Greg DulcichTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.5 | +2.6 | 72% | 81% | 38% | 42% | 6/8, 85 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −0.6 | 76% | 81% | 22% | 22% | 7/8, 41 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 10.5 | +5.2 | 38% | 38% | 19% | 29% | 4/4, 65 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | −0.1 | 94% | 94% | 17% | 11% | 2 car, 9 yd · 6/6, 34 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.1 | −2.6 | 68% | 65% | 19% | 0% | 17 car, 47 yd · 4/4, 14 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 9.7 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/22, 189 yd · 2 car, 21 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −1.4 | 85% | 87% | 19% | 32% | 1 car, 1 yd · 4/7, 53 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +1.5 | 26% | 32% | 11% | 9% | 4/4, 30 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB | 6.6 | −1.8 | 47% | 47% | 8% | 13% | 7 car, 29 yd · 2/3, 17 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 3.6 | −0.9 | 23% | 23% | 5% | 2% | 6 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.4 | 35% | 40% | 8% | 17% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 2.6 | −0.5 | 24% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 77% | 81% | 5% | 4% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 1.9 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Lamar JacksonQB | 1.3 | −0.3 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 11 yd · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 1.2 | −1.9 | 24% | 19% | 0% | — | 6 car, 12 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 1.0 | −0.3 | 35% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −2.9 | 18% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd, 1 INT · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Nick BoyleTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 49% | 42% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 43% | 38% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.1 | −2.8 | 15% | 15% | 5% | 20% | 1 car, -1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q4 0:02 · Broncos · 2nd & 6 at BAL 45 · gained nothing · -0.98 EP · −46.0% win probability
153 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 91 yards from the BAL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos3
Ravens0Broncos3Ravens3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Broncos6Ravens3How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos9Ravens3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Broncos9Ravens9Broncos9Ravens10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/22 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Mike Boone |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 38% | +4.4 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 7 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 7 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 27/32 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −1.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3/4 | 11 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_13_DEN_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -9.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 19 — under by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 18 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.9 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| +1.6 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 19% | −1.6 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Montrell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Kareem Jackson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| P.J. Locke | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Essang Bassey | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| −5.9 |
| James Proche | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 19% | −3.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 22% | +0.3 |
| Devin Duvernay | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | −2.3 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| James Proche | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Worley | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
