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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:30 PM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 28, Bears 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:57, 1st and 10, on Jaire Alexander — 21.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:57 · 1st and 10
Jaire Alexander
Packers
(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).
Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 9.
Green Bay Packers 28–19. Biggest swing: Q4 2:57, Packers +21.6% win probability on one snap.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin FieldsBearsQ1 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.9pts
Cairo SantosPackersQ4 11:44(11:44) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
16.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.40 expected points per carry, against Packers at +0.23 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Packers at 6 of 13 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers146 of 156 plays carry both curves
(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).
Swing −21.6 for BearsExpected points −4.07 for BearsThe model had Bears 12 points higher than the market did.play 140
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:57GB +22% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).
4th · 11:44GB +17% win prob(11:44) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
1st · 3:10CHI +14% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00CHI +12% win prob(2:00) 9-C.Watson left end for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:23CHI +11% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:35CHI +11% win prob(14:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 8-N.Harry to GB 28 for 49 yards (23-J.Alexander).
4th · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 32-yard field goal with 4:53 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:27Cairo Santos·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+30–3
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Packers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.40Bears: +0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bears’s 49 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Bears 3.
NoteBears outgained Packers 410-361 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 4.5% in week 11.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 12.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bears0.0%
off script — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−2.40× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 8.1 points below their season mean of 8.1% and 2.4 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass−29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).
Q4 2:57 · Bears · 1st & 10 at GB 43 · gained nothing · -4.07 EP · −28.8% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 128. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 82 yards from the GB 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2545%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0453%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0750%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.5854%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0483%
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Packers0Bears3
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 22
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers0Bears9
Packers0Bears10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Bears 35
2nd quarter43 plays
Packers3Bears10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 6
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 46
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Bears 36
Packers3Bears16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Packers 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Packers9Bears16
Packers10Bears16
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 29
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 47
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 38
Packers10Bears19
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Packers 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 21
4th quarter45 plays
Packers16Bears19
Packers17Bears19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Bears 21
No good6 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Packers 22
Packers20Bears19
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Bears 12
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Packers 43
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Packers26Bears19
Packers28Bears19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Bears 46
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Packers 28
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -4
Closing total
45
Packers moneyline
-182
Bears moneyline
+163
Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Packers 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Eberflus
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CHI +10% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson (31-Ja.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-31-Ja.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at GB 36 - No Play.
4th · 3:29CHI +10% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to GB 43 for 13 yards (59-D.Campbell).
