For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · Soldier Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

28

Chicago Bears

19

GB -4 ✓O 45 ✓

Green Bay Packers 28–19. Biggest swing: Q4 2:57, GB +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 2:57GB 20 — CHI 19CHI ball · 1st & 10GB 51%

(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:57GB +22% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).
  2. Q4 · 11:44GB +17% win prob(11:44) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
  3. Q1 · 3:10CHI +14% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 2:00CHI +12% win prob(2:00) 9-C.Watson left end for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:27CHI Field goal

    (9:27) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — CHI 3
  2. Q1 · 3:10CHI Touchdown

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 0 — CHI 10
  3. Q2 · 10:25GB Field goal

    (10:25) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — CHI 10
  4. Q2 · 6:15CHI Touchdown

    (6:15) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — CHI 16
  5. Q2 · 0:23GB Touchdown

    (:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 10 — CHI 16
  6. Q3 · 1:53CHI Field goal

    (1:53) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — CHI 19
  7. Q4 · 14:47GB Touchdown

    (14:47) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — CHI 19
  8. Q4 · 4:53GB Field goal

    (4:53) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: GB 20 — CHI 19
  9. Q4 · 2:00GB Touchdown

    (2:00) 9-C.Watson left end for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: GB 28 — CHI 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBears
Offensive plays6249
Total yards361410 (edge)
Yards per play5.88.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.18 (edge)0.12
Success rate48% (edge)45%
Dropback rate53%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.230.40 (edge)
Third downs6/136/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)16
Sacks taken00
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Bears outgained Packers 410–361 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

20/25, 254 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

4.4 expected points added · +14.5% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

18/31, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

18 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

6 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Equanimeous St. BrownWR

3/4 for 85 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

6/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 2512535:37Field goal +3
2GBGB 188143:44Punt
3CHICHI 306702:39Touchdown +7
4GBGB 3014647:38Field goal +3
5CHICHI 265351:31Fumble
6GBGB 405241:45Turnover on downs
7CHICHI 373630:57Touchdown +6
8GBGB 2515755:52Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 37200:17End of half
10GBGB 20591:44Punt
11CHICHI 42462:25Punt
12GBGB 334101:00Punt
13CHICHI 2812728:01Field goal +3
14GBGB 186392:09Touchdown +7
15CHICHI 236553:01Missed field goal
16GBGB 3013566:51Field goal +3
17CHICHI 316261:57Interception
18GBGB 324701:01Touchdown +8
19CHICHI 476301:07Interception
20GBGB 6200:44End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers18/311821004.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon18935.213.8
Christian Watson14646.014.8
Aaron Jones9262.90-2.3
Patrick Taylor166.000.5
Aaron Rodgers341.300.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Allen Lazard5667020%5.2
Christian Watson3748123%4.7
A.J. Dillon3326010%1.9
Aaron Jones5524017%-0.1
Robert Tonyan121007%-1.3
Samori Toure11703%0.2
Randall Cobb040013%-4.3
Josiah Deguara01003%-0.8
Marcedes Lewis01003%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell640.000
Rasul Douglas420.000
Jaire Alexander510.011
Quay Walker240.000
Adrian Amos400.000
Preston Smith310.000
Dean Lowry210.000
Eric Wilson110.000
Rudy Ford200.000
Keisean Nixon020.011

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields20/252540204.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields67111.814.7
David Montgomery14614.411.9
Darrynton Evans3217.000.9
Equanimeous St. Brown111.00-0.4
Velus Jones111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Equanimeous St. Brown3485016%0.8
Cole Kmet6772028%6.4
N'Keal Harry114904%3.3
Chase Claypool5628024%-6.0
Dante Pettis121408%-3.3
David Montgomery456020%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Sanborn720.000
Jaylon Jones620.000
DeAndre Houston-Carson320.000
Nicholas Morrow410.000
Dominique Robinson410.000
Elijah Hicks130.000
Josh Blackwell400.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad200.000
Matthew Adams200.000
Armon Watts110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -4
Closing total
45
GB moneyline
-182
CHI moneyline
+163

Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
38°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
GB 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.