For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Indianapolis Colts 19 at Dallas Cowboys 54. Final.
Cowboys -11 ✓O 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
Dallas Cowboys 54, Colts 19 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 3:49, 2nd and 13, on Alec Pierce — 12.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:49 · 2nd and 13
Alec Pierce
Colts
(3:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -11 and covered, winning by 35.
Dallas Cowboys 54–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:49, Colts +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ashton DulinColtsQ1 2:42(2:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 16-A.Dulin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.3pts
Stephon GilmoreColtsQ2 2:56(2:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 5-S.Gilmore at 50. 5-S.Gilmore to DAL 19 for 31 yards (66-C.McGovern).
11.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 6 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.11 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Colts175 of 181 plays carry both curves
(3:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.7 for CowboysExpected points −2.86 for CowboysThe model had Colts 12 points higher than the market did.play 123
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:49DAL +13% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:56IND +11% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 5-S.Gilmore at 50. 5-S.Gilmore to DAL 19 for 31 yards (66-C.McGovern).
1st · 2:42DAL +11% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 16-A.Dulin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:03IND +11% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 14-A.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL 48. 28-M.Hooker pushed ob at IND 26 for 26 yards (1-P.Campbell).
2nd · 0:20DAL +8% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:58DAL +8% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tony Pollard's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:18 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:53Chase McLaughlin·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
1st4:58CeeDee Lamb·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+73–7
1st2:42Ashton Dulin·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+710–7
2nd10:18Tony Pollard·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–14
2nd1:51Chase McLaughlin·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+313–14
2nd0:20Michael Gallup·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+713–21
3rd3:49Alec Pierce·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no good+619–21
4th13:55Michael Gallup·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+719–28
4th13:46Malik Hooker·38-yd defence TD38-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+619–34
4th9:54Tony Pollard·30-yd TD run30-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by G.Stewart+619–40
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Colts: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.21Cowboys: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Colts: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.08Cowboys: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Colts: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.34Cowboys: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 69 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Cowboys 7.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's blitz rate sent turned over: 29.4% in week 12 against 12.9% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cowboys17.1%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 10.8 points below their season mean of 14.0% and 1.7 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 14-A.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL 48. 28-M.Hooker pushed ob at IND 26 for 26 yards (1-P.Campbell).
Q2 1:03 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at IND 40 · gained nothing · -5.20 EP · −16.8% win probability
173 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 90 yards from the IND 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
694
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.2960%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.3462%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1927%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.0230%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.4960%
Cowboys1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 24
Colts3Cowboys0
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Cowboys 33
Colts3Cowboys6
Colts3Cowboys7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Colts 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Colts9Cowboys7
Colts10Cowboys7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Cowboys 14
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 34
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 25
Colts10Cowboys13
Colts10Cowboys14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Colts 2
Punt12 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Cowboys 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 35
Colts13Cowboys14
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 16
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Colts13Cowboys20
Colts13Cowboys21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 10
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Colts19Cowboys21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Cowboys 12
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Colts 20
4th quarter48 plays
Colts19Cowboys27
Colts19Cowboys28
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 3
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts19Cowboys34
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 40
Colts19Cowboys40
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Colts 30
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Cowboys 30
Colts19Cowboys46
Colts19Cowboys47
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Colts 4
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 41
Colts19Cowboys53
Colts19Cowboys54
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 23
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 32 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
