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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:29 PM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Jaguars163 of 171 plays carry both curves
(14:20) 1-T.Etienne left end to JAX 38 for 13 yards (5-D.Elliott). FUMBLES (5-D.Elliott), RECOVERED by DET-34-A.Anzalone at JAX 38.
Swing +10.3 for LionsExpected points +4.58 for LionsThe model had Lions 6 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:20JAX +10% win prob(14:20) 1-T.Etienne left end to JAX 38 for 13 yards (5-D.Elliott). FUMBLES (5-D.Elliott), RECOVERED by DET-34-A.Anzalone at JAX 38.
1st · 5:29DET +7% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 4-D.Chark to JAX 9 for 41 yards (29-Te.Campbell).
1st · 10:55DET +7% win prob(10:55) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk ran ob at DET 43 for 37 yards (31-K.Joseph).
1st · 11:33DET +6% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to JAX 1 for 12 yards (42-A.Wingard).
1st · 9:39DET +6% win prob(9:39) 39-J.Agnew right end pushed ob at DET 31 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
1st · 4:09DET +5% win prob(4:09) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jamaal Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:58 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:58Jamaal Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st7:46Riley Patterson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–7
1st4:09Amon-Ra St. Brown·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+73–14
2nd12:44Michael Badgley·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–17
2nd7:02Michael Badgley·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–20
2nd4:19Riley Patterson·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+36–20
2nd0:34Michael Badgley·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+36–23
4th12:25Michael Badgley·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+314–33
4th2:47Amon-Ra St. Brown·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+714–40
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryLions
Jaguars1–7Lions
268Total yards438
4.8Yards per play6.1
41%Success rate54%
25%Third-down rate67%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays5
16First downs29
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Jaguars: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.29Lions: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Jaguars: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.50Lions: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Jaguars: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.03Lions: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 56 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Lions’s 72 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, +11.1 pts, is past their previous high of +8.2 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 13.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Lions7.5%
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.1 pts, 13.0 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%56 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%56 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyG · Full-time93%52 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Full-time93%52 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Full-time93%52 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Full-time93%52 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Full-time88%49 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time86%48 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Full-time82%46 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation77%43 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Heavy rotation68%38 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational27%15 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational20%11 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Situational16%9 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Situational14%8 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Situational11%6 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Situational7%4 snaps
70Cole Van LanenG · Situational7%4 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational7%4 snaps
24Snoop ConnerRB · Situational7%4 snaps
3C.J. BeathardQB · Situational7%4 snaps
22Jamycal HastyRB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Tre HerndonCBDe'Shaan DixonOLBDarrell HendersonRBAndre CiscoSSKendric PryorWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Etienne left−12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:20) 1-T.Etienne left end to JAX 38 for 13 yards (5-D.Elliott). FUMBLES (5-D.Elliott), RECOVERED by DET-34-A.Anzalone at JAX 38.
Q1 14:20 · Jaguars · 2nd & 6 at JAX 25 · gained 13 · -4.58 EP · −11.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.3360%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0167%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3360%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1960%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 25
Jaguars0Lions6
Jaguars0Lions7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars3Lions7
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Lions 13
Jaguars3Lions13
Jaguars3Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jaguars 9
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Lions 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Lions 27
2nd quarter51 plays
Jaguars3Lions17
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Jaguars 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
Jaguars3Lions20
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Jaguars 27
Jaguars6Lions20
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Lions 24
Jaguars6Lions23
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Jaguars 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 42
3rd quarter40 plays
Jaguars6Lions29
Jaguars6Lions30
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars12Lions30
Jaguars14Lions30
Touchdown19 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Lions 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
4th quarter35 plays
Jaguars14Lions33
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 20
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 27
Jaguars14Lions39
Jaguars14Lions40
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Jaguars 4
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 32
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
