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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:30 PM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Las Vegas Raiders 27. Final.
Raiders -2.5 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
Las Vegas Raiders 27, Chargers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:15, 3rd and 5, on Bryce Callahan — 15.8 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:15 · 3rd and 5
Bryce Callahan
Chargers
(5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan (26-A.Samuel) at LV 26. 23-B.Callahan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Las Vegas Raiders 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:15, Chargers +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Austin EkelerRaidersQ3 14:50(14:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 32 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), touched at LAC 34, RECOVERED by LV-39-N.Hobbs at LAC 38. 39-N.Hobbs to LAC 31 for 7 yards (48-S.Smartt).
12.4pts
Davante AdamsRaidersQ3 14:36(14:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 2 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan (26-A.Samuel) at LV 26. 23-B.Callahan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.8 for RaidersExpected points −7.05 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:15LAC +16% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan (26-A.Samuel) at LV 26. 23-B.Callahan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:36LV +13% win prob(14:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:50LAC +12% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 32 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), touched at LAC 34, RECOVERED by LV-39-N.Hobbs at LAC 38. 39-N.Hobbs to LAC 31 for 7 yards (48-S.Smartt).
3rd · 11:01LV +12% win prob(11:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:49LAC +12% win prob(7:49) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 28-J.Jacobs to LV 25 for 1 yard (9-K.Murray). FUMBLES (9-K.Murray), RECOVERED by LAC-8-K.Van Noy at LV 25.
1st · 6:16LAC +10% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LV 16 for 1 yard (55-C.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 31-yard touchdown catch with 14:36 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Raiders ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Chargers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.09Raiders: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Chargers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.26Raiders: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Chargers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.09Raiders: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 73 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Raiders’s 59 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Raiders 4.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected turned over: +16.3 pts in week 12 against +2.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Raiders24.1%
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.1%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.5 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan (26-A.Samuel) at LV 26. 23-B.Callahan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:15 · Raiders · 3rd & 5 at LV 21 · gained nothing · -7.05 EP · −18.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 78 yards from the LAC 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1782%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.2468%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.1832%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0736%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 49
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 6 to the Raiders 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 17
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chargers6Raiders0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 21
Chargers7Raiders0
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Raiders 40
2nd quarter55 plays
Chargers10Raiders0
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 15
Chargers10Raiders6
Chargers10Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 31
Chargers10Raiders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Chargers 37
Chargers13Raiders10
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 16
No good6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chargers13Raiders16
Chargers13Raiders17
Touchdown2 plays
No good10 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Raiders 34
Chargers13Raiders23
Chargers13Raiders24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Chargers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 36
The period ended13 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Chargers 15
4th quarter50 plays
Chargers13Raiders27
Field goal2 plays
Chargers19Raiders27
Chargers20Raiders27
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Raiders 33
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 42
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Raiders 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Chargers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
