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Miami Dolphins 17 at San Francisco 49ers 33. Final.
49ers -4.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
San Francisco 49ers 33, Dolphins 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on Trent Sherfield — 25.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
Trent Sherfield
Dolphins
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC
49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 16.
San Francisco 49ers 33–17. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Dolphins +25.3% win probability on one snap.
25.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian McCaffrey49ersQ1 14:45(14:45) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 20 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins; 96-J.Zimmer).
11.5pts
Mike Gesicki49ersQ4 6:03(6:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at SF 33 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (57-D.Greenlaw).
11.5pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 8 of 18 on third down, against Dolphins at 0 of 7 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.33 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Dolphins164 of 178 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC
Swing −25.3 for 49ersExpected points −6.23 for 49ersThe model had Dolphins 11 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00SF +25% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC
1st · 14:45SF +12% win prob(14:45) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 20 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins; 96-J.Zimmer).
4th · 6:03MIA +11% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at SF 33 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (57-D.Greenlaw).
2nd · 0:07SF +11% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC
4th · 14:35SF +10% win prob(14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-S.Ebukam was injured during the play. 6 YAC
3rd · 10:07MIA +9% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 23-J.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward [91-A.Armstead] at SF 36. 1-J.Ward to SF 36 for no gain (23-J.Wilson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:07 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00Trent Sherfield·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–0
1st10:42Robbie Gould·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+37–3
49ers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Dolphins: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.0049ers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Dolphins: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Dolphins: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.0849ers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 45 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against 49ers’s 76 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +22.8 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 11.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +13.2 pts in week 1.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.2% in week 6.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's play-action rate, 59.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 50.0% in week 8.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 12.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points.
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.4%, is past their previous low of 10.7% in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 12.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
49ers13.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 22.8 pts, 20.6 points above their season mean of 2.1 pts and 2.3 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC
Q1 15:00 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at MIA 25 · gained 75 · +6.23 EP · +24.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 76 yards from the SF 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
659
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR36-0.1547%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0291%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.7989%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3850%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.0567%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR11+0.5682%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0133%
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Dolphins649ers0
Dolphins749ers0
Touchdown3 plays
Dolphins749ers3
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Dolphins 19
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 28
Dolphins749ers9
Dolphins749ers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Dolphins 3
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 28
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 28 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 29
2nd quarter48 plays
Dolphins1049ers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the 49ers 17
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
Punt4 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Dolphins 38
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 39
Dolphins1049ers16
Dolphins1049ers17
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Dolphins 3
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 49
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the 49ers 28
Dolphins1049ers20
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Dolphins 23
Intercepted2 plays
Dolphins1049ers23
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 41
4th quarter46 plays
Dolphins1649ers23
Dolphins1749ers23
Touchdown3 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the 49ers 45
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Dolphins 43
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the 49ers 36
Dolphins1749ers26
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Dolphins 11
Dolphins1749ers32
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins1749ers33
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
