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2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Miami Dolphins

17

San Francisco 49ersWinner

33

SF -4.5 ✓O 46 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 33–17. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, SF +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑MIA ↓
Q1 · 15:00MIA 6 — SF 0MIA ball · 1st & 10SF 68%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 15:00SF +25% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC
  2. Q1 · 14:45SF +12% win prob(14:45) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 20 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins; 96-J.Zimmer).
  3. Q4 · 6:03MIA +11% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at SF 33 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (57-D.Greenlaw).
  4. Q2 · 0:07SF +11% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 15:00MIA Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — SF 0
  2. Q1 · 10:42SF Field goal

    (10:42) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — SF 3
  3. Q1 · 4:57SF Touchdown

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 4 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — SF 10
  4. Q2 · 10:20MIA Field goal

    (10:20) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — SF 10
  5. Q2 · 0:07SF Touchdown

    (:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — SF 17
  6. Q3 · 2:57SF Field goal

    (2:57) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on MIA-2-B.Chubb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — SF 20
  7. Q3 · 1:18SF Field goal

    (1:18) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — SF 23
  8. Q4 · 14:35MIA Touchdown

    (14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-S.Ebukam was injured during the play. 6 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — SF 23
  9. Q4 · 2:08SF Field goal

    (2:08) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — SF 26
  10. Q4 · 2:03SF Touchdown

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], RECOVERED by SF-57-D.Greenlaw at MIA 23. 57-D.Greenlaw for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — SF 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphins49ers
Offensive plays4576
Total yards308354 (edge)
Yards per play6.8 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play-0.33-0.00 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)42%
Dropback rate82%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.390.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06 (edge)-0.08
Third downs0/78/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)25 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1321 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers41 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

18/33, 295 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

25/37, 210 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

8 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

9/14 for 146 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

8/10 for 80 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 253750:10Touchdown +7
2SFSF 1710544:13Field goal +3
3MIAMIA 24541:07Punt
4SFSF 4610404:38Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 25531:03Punt
6SFSF 28592:58Punt
7MIAMIA 1012655:37Field goal +3
8SFSF 25551:35Punt
9MIAMIA 28400:25Punt
10SFSF 226393:01Interception
11MIAMIA 195102:25Punt
12SFSF 2412772:44Touchdown +7
13MIA—100:04End of half
14SFSF 258133:48Punt
15MIAMIA 382191:11Interception
16SFSF 3612397:09Field goal +3
17MIAMIA 25200:07Interception
18SFMIA 25471:31Field goal +3
19MIAMIA 256801:46Touchdown +7
20SFSF 308273:18Punt
21MIAMIA 1011545:10Turnover on downs
22SFSF 3610443:57Field goal +3
23MIAMIA 252-20:10Defensive touchdown
24MIAMIA 25200:11Interception
25SFMIA 27301:42End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa18/33295223-11.3
Skylar Thompson0/10010-3.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert7304.30-0.1
Jeffery Wilson133.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill914146141%2.7
Trent Sherfield137519%3.4
River Cracraft232909%0.6
Durham Smythe222106%1.8
Alec Ingold3415012%-0.1
Jaylen Waddle159015%-2.6
Jeffery Wilson02006%-5.4
Mike Gesicki01003%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jerome Baker550.500
Christian Wilkins550.000
Zach Sieler520.500
Jevon Holland520.000
Andrew Van Ginkel050.500
Kader Kohou410.000
Eric Rowe220.001
Elandon Roberts220.000
Bradley Chubb211.000
Jaelan Phillips120.500

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy25/372102130.6
Jimmy Garoppolo2/4560011.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey17663.90-3.8
Jordan Mason8516.400.9
Deebo Samuel451.30-1.0
Kyle Juszczyk100.00-0.6
Brock Purdy4-1-0.30-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian McCaffrey81080125%6.1
Deebo Samuel61058025%1.2
Brandon Aiyuk5946023%-0.6
Jauan Jennings2434010%1.5
George Kittle232208%1.5
Tyler Kroft111403%1.0
Kyle Juszczyk331218%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw610.001
Jimmie Ward310.011
Nick Bosa303.000
Tashaun Gipson300.000
Hassan Ridgeway120.000
Fred Warner110.012
Oren Burks110.000
Brandon Aiyuk100.000
Kevin Givens100.000
Deommodore Lenoir100.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -4.5
Closing total
46
MIA moneyline
+196
SF moneyline
-222

49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 46; the game landed 50 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
38°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
MIA 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Kyle Shanahan