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2022 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 5, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans16
BY 1final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay17
New Orleans Saints 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 no coverU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17, Saints 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:08, 3rd and 6, on Rachaad White — 41.3 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:08 · 3rd and 6
Rachaad White
Buccaneers
(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:08, Buccaneers +41.3% win probability on one snap.
41.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris GodwinSaintsQ4 0:19(:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-76-D.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
12.9pts
Rashid ShaheedBuccaneersQ4 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 89-R.Shaheed to NO 34 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 29, recovered by NO-5-J.Landry at NO 29. 5-J.Landry to NO 31 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NO-41-A.Kamara at NO 23. 41-A.Kamara to NO 35 for 12 yards (26-L.Ryan).
23.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Saints at 5 of 14 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Saints169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +41.3 for BuccaneersExpected points +3.73 for BuccaneersThe model had Saints 3 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:08TB +41% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03NO +24% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 89-R.Shaheed to NO 34 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 29, recovered by NO-5-J.Landry at NO 29. 5-J.Landry to NO 31 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NO-41-A.Kamara at NO 23. 41-A.Kamara to NO 35 for 12 yards (26-L.Ryan).
4th · 0:19NO +13% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-76-D.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
2nd · 7:41TB +11% win prob(7:41) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-G.Avery].
2nd · 1:32NO +11% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis at NO 47. 56-D.Davis to TB 49 for 4 yards (17-R.Gage).
4th · 2:54NO +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rachaad White's 6-yard touchdown catch with 0:08 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:29Ryan Succop·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+30–3
2nd7:41Taysom Hill·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+77–3
2nd0:25Wil Lutz·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+310–3
3rd2:49Wil Lutz·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+313–3
4th8:06Wil Lutz·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+316–3
4th3:03Cade Otton·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+716–10
4th0:08Rachaad White·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+716–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Saints3–6Buccaneers
298Total yards351
5.3Yards per play4.7
39%Success rate46%
36%Third-down rate53%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays2
12First downs23
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Saints: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Saints: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Saints: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.05Buccaneers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 56 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 74 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Buccaneers 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's play-action rate turned over: 22.9% in week 12 against 6.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.9% in week 12 against 9.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Buccaneers9.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.3%, 7.2 points below their season mean of 13.5% and 1.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+41% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:08 · Buccaneers · 3rd & goal at NO 6 · gained 6 · +3.73 EP · +41.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
648
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0572%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0671%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2682%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3840%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Saints0Buccaneers3
Field goal18 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 3
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 34
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Buccaneers 43
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 34
Saints6Buccaneers3
Saints7Buccaneers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Buccaneers 30
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Buccaneers 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 49
Saints10Buccaneers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Buccaneers 19
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Saints 49
Saints13Buccaneers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Buccaneers 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 43
4th quarter61 plays
Punt1 play
Saints16Buccaneers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Buccaneers 44
Saints16Buccaneers9
Saints16Buccaneers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Saints 1
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Saints16Buccaneers16
Saints16Buccaneers17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Saints 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
