2022 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 5, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -3.5 no coverU 41 ✓Buccaneers closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:08, TB +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:08NO 16 — TB 16TB ball · 3rd & 6NO 67%

(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:08TB +41% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:03NO +24% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 89-R.Shaheed to NO 34 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 29, recovered by NO-5-J.Landry at NO 29. 5-J.Landry to NO 31 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NO-41-A.Kamara at NO 23. 41-A.Kamara to NO 35 for 12 yards (26-L.Ryan).
Q4 · 0:19NO +13% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-76-D.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
Q2 · 7:41TB +11% win prob(7:41) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-G.Avery].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:29TB Field goal
(6:29) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: NO 0 — TB 3
Q2 · 7:41NO Touchdown
(7:41) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-G.Avery]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — TB 3
Q2 · 0:25NO Field goal
(:25) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 10 — TB 3
Q3 · 2:49NO Field goal
(2:49) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 13 — TB 3
Q4 · 8:06NO Field goal
(8:06) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 16 — TB 3
Q4 · 3:03TB Touchdown
(3:03) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 16 — TB 10
Q4 · 0:08TB Touchdown
(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 16 — TB 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	56	74
Total yards	298	351 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.03	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	39%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	12	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

36/54, 281 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.4 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

20/28, 229 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.7 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

10 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

9 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

4/4 for 75 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

4/6 for 65 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	17	72	8:35	Field goal +3
2	NO	NO 29	5	-3	2:18	Punt
3	TB	TB 24	5	17	2:14	Punt
4	NO	NO 13	6	52	2:04	Punt
5	TB	TB 13	7	16	2:32	Punt
6	NO	NO 20	9	80	4:44	Touchdown +7
7	TB	TB 25	7	7	2:43	Punt
8	NO	TB 40	4	1	1:04	Punt
9	TB	TB 11	7	38	2:19	Interception
10	NO	TB 49	6	30	1:07	Field goal +3
11	TB	TB 23	2	0	0:20	End of half
12	NO	NO 25	5	2	2:20	Punt
13	TB	TB 26	5	36	2:34	Fumble
14	NO	NO 32	12	70	7:20	Field goal +3
15	TB	TB 25	10	35	2:53	Punt
16	NO	NO 20	12	60	6:51	Field goal +3
17	TB	TB 25	5	0	1:08	Punt
18	NO	NO 47	4	9	1:33	Punt
19	TB	TB 9	11	57	2:21	Touchdown +7
20	NO	NO 25	5	-7	0:31	Punt
21	TB	TB 37	12	73	2:26	Touchdown +7
22	NO	NO 25	2	4	0:03	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	20/28	229	1	0	2	3.7
Taysom Hill	1/1	21	0	0	0	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	7	27	3.9	-1.0
Alvin Kamara	12	26	2.2	-4.5
Taysom Hill	3	10	3.3	-0.8
Adam Prentice	1	2	2.0	0.5
Andy Dalton	1	1	1.0	-0.4
Rashid Shaheed	1	0	0.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	4	4	75	0	14%	5.7
Chris Olave	4	6	65	0	21%	3.4
Taysom Hill	2	3	35	1	11%	1.8
Adam Trautman	2	3	28	0	11%	1.5
Mark Ingram	5	5	22	0	18%	-0.2
Jarvis Landry	2	3	14	0	11%	-0.5
Alvin Kamara	2	3	11	0	11%	-0.9
Marquez Callaway	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Marcus Maye	8	3	0	0
Kaden Elliss	3	5	0	0
Alontae Taylor	6	2	0	1
Bradley Roby	6	2	0	1
Demario Davis	2	5	1	2
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	0	1
Carl Granderson	3	1	0	0
David Onyemata	1	3	0	0
Malcolm Roach	2	1	0	0
Paulson Adebo	3	0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	36/54	281	2	1	1	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	10	49	4.9	1.3
Rachaad White	9	28	3.1	-2.3
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	8	13	63	0	25%	-2.6
Mike Evans	4	4	59	0	8%	5.3
Rachaad White	6	8	41	1	15%	-0.3
Leonard Fournette	6	7	32	0	13%	-0.3
Cade Otton	6	10	28	1	19%	-2.2
Julio Jones	3	6	28	0	11%	-0.7
Ko Kieft	1	2	12	0	4%	0.4
Russell Gage	1	1	11	0	2%	0.7
Scott Miller	1	2	7	0	4%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	9	2	1.0	0
William Gholston	4	2	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	5	0	0.0	1
Carlton Davis	3	2	0.0	1
Jamel Dean	4	1	0.0	1
Devin White	3	2	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	2	2	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	0.0	0
Zyon McCollum	1	2	0.0	0
Carl Nassib	2	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 41
NO moneyline: +169
TB moneyline: -190

Buccaneers closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NO 8 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.