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2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
JetsNew York22
BY 5final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
New York Jets 22 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Vikings -3 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 13
Minnesota Vikings 27, Jets 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:46, 4th and 1, on Mike White — 32.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:46 · 4th and 1
Mike White
Vikings
(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 10-B.Berrios (58-J.Hicks).
Dome
Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Minnesota Vikings 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 1:46, Vikings +32.4% win probability on one snap.
32.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Corey DavisJetsQ4 3:48(3:48) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle to 84-C.Davis to MIN 16 for 31 yards (24-C.Bynum).
26.2pts
Camryn BynumVikingsQ4 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [98-D.Wonnum] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 6 for 5 yards.
19.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 9 of 18 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 16 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Vikings at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Jets189 of 200 plays carry both curves
(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 10-B.Berrios (58-J.Hicks).
Swing +32.4 for VikingsExpected points +4.71 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:46NYJ +32% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 10-B.Berrios (58-J.Hicks).
4th · 3:48MIN +26% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle to 84-C.Davis to MIN 16 for 31 yards (24-C.Bynum).
4th · 0:16NYJ +19% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [98-D.Wonnum] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 6 for 5 yards.
4th · 1:30NYJ +19% win prob(1:30) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios to MIN 43 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus).
1st · 13:41NYJ +14% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith (24-C.Bynum) at NYJ 43. 22-H.Smith to NYJ 35 for 8 yards. Lateral to 7-P.Peterson pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 1 yard (8-E.Moore).
4th · 14:46MIN +12% win prob(14:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson pushed ob at MIN 11 for 60 yards (24-C.Bynum).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalvin Cook's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:06 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:38Greg Joseph·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+30–3
1st8:34Greg Zuerlein·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
2nd13:06Dalvin Cook·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
Jets ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Jets: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 83 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Vikings’s 64 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Jets 6, Vikings 3.
NoteJets outgained Vikings 486-289 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
NYJ's blitz rate sent, 25.6%, is past their previous high of 23.1% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 13.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.9 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 28.3%, is past their previous high of 24.4% in week 12 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
60 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.3% in week 12 against 67.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings13.3%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 1.7 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.White pass−33% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 10-B.Berrios (58-J.Hicks).
Q4 1:46 · Jets · 4th & goal at MIN 1 · gained nothing · -4.71 EP · −32.8% win probability
187 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 200 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 200 snaps, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 86 yards from the MIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
200 of 200 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
200
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
38%
Yards
773
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68-0.0774%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0270%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1257%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5856%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.2113%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
200 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
200 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Jets0Vikings3
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 33
Jets3Vikings3
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Vikings 30
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Jets 47
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 37
The period ended13 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Jets 30
2nd quarter52 plays
Jets3Vikings9
Jets3Vikings10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 4
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 42
Jets3Vikings16
Jets3Vikings17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Jets 14
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 43
Jets3Vikings20
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 23
Jets6Vikings20
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Vikings 42
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 31
Jets9Vikings20
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Vikings 18
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 41
Jets12Vikings20
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Vikings 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
4th quarter59 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jets15Vikings20
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Vikings 8
Jets15Vikings26
Jets15Vikings27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Jets 10
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Jets21Vikings27
Jets22Vikings27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Vikings 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 19
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
