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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:29 PM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to LA 30 for 10 yards (14-D.Durant).
Swing −16.4 for RamsExpected points −1.49 for RamsThe model had Rams 8 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:41LA +16% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to LA 30 for 10 yards (14-D.Durant).
4th · 4:33LA +14% win prob(4:33) 13-J.Wolford left end ran ob at SEA 35 for 14 yards (27-T.Woolen).
4th · 0:49LA +13% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-M.Goodwin to LA 8 for 17 yards (6-D.Kendrick; 33-N.Scott).
4th · 0:41LA +13% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:48LA +12% win prob(3:48) 19-B.Powell up the middle to SEA 15 for 20 yards (8-C.Bryant).
4th · 3:01LA +12% win prob(3:01) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:53SEA +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DK Metcalf's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:41 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Seahawks ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Seahawks: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.05Rams: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.27Rams: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Seahawks: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.24Rams: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Rams 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
LA's play-action rate, 54.3%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 8 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 12.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 25.7%, is past their previous high of 24.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 12.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
SEA's blitz rate sent, 5.7%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 10 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Rams18.2%
right on their number · +4.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 54.3%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 28.5% and 2.1 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:41 · Seahawks · 1st & goal at LA 8 · gained 8 · +1.82 EP · +17.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 91 yards from the SEA 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
757
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.0548%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.3185%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.0357%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1317%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Seahawks0Rams6
Seahawks0Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Seahawks 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Seahawks6Rams7
Seahawks7Rams7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 35
Seahawks7Rams10
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 21
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 34
2nd quarter46 plays
Seahawks13Rams10
Seahawks14Rams10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Rams 4
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt6 plays
Seahawks14Rams13
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Seahawks 27
The period ended7 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 40
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Seahawks17Rams13
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Rams 8
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Rams 36
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Seahawks 22
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks17Rams16
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 8
Seahawks20Rams16
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks20Rams22
Seahawks20Rams23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 6
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Seahawks26Rams23
Seahawks27Rams23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 8
Intercepted7 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -7
Closing total
41
Seahawks moneyline
-292
Rams moneyline
+252
Seahawks closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 50 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(1:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 32-T.Jones INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at LA 45. 45-B.Wagner to LA 45 for no gain (32-T.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 13:24SEA +11% win prob(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LA 48 for -8 yards (97-M.Hoecht). FUMBLES (97-M.Hoecht) [97-M.Hoecht], RECOVERED by LA-24-T.Rapp at LA 29. 24-T.Rapp to LA 29 for no gain (68-D.Lewis).
