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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 13
It turned at Q4 1:41, 3rd and 10, on Tyler Lockett — 16.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 1:41, Seahawks +16.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:41 · 3rd and 10
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(1:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to LA 30 for 10 yards (14-D.Durant).
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.24 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 12 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(1:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to LA 30 for 10 yards (14-D.Durant).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DK Metcalf's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:41 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Rams 3.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's play-action rate, 54.3%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 8 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
SEA's sack or hit rate, 25.7%, is past their previous high of 24.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
SEA's blitz rate sent, 5.7%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 10 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks8.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 64 snaps
Rams-6.4 ptsright on their number · −3.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 88%
Tendencies room →Seahawks64.8%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 54 early downs
Rams53.1%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Seahawks27.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Rams54.3%off script — faked the run · +25.8 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+2.09× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
Rams33.3%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 58%
Tendencies room →Seahawks5.7%leaned — sat back · −13.6 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Rams27.3%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks25.7%leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Rams18.2%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
LA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 54.3%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 28.5% and 2.1 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
28/39, 367 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
10.6 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Passing · LA
14/26, 178 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
9/12 for 128 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DK Metcalf banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.8 | +8.9 | 88% | 95% | 32% | 34% | 9/12, 128 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 26.7 | +9.9 | 87% | 91% | 22% | 43% | 8/8, 127 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/39, 367 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +3.1 | 67% | 59% | 14% | 12% | 4/5, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony JonesRB · Receiving Back | 5.2 | −3.5 | 34% | 32% | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 14 yd · 2/4, 18 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.6 | 52% | 52% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 3.7 | −4.3 | 48% | 48% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 37 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB | 3.6 | −0.8 | 21% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 36 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −2.5 | 37% | 50% | 5% | 14% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.5 | 36% | 27% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.4 | 27% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:41 · Seahawks · 1st & goal at LA 8 · gained 8 · +1.82 EP · +17.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 91 yards from the SEA 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
Rams6Seahawks0Rams7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks6Rams7Seahawks7Rams7Seahawks7Rams10Seahawks13Rams10Seahawks14Rams10How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Seahawks14Rams13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Seahawks17Rams13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Seahawks17Rams16Seahawks20Rams16How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seahawks20Rams22Seahawks20Rams23How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks26Rams23Seahawks27Rams23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 28/39 | 367 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kenneth Walker | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Tony Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 12 | 128 | 1 | 32% | +10.6 |
| DK Metcalf | 8 | 8 | 127 | 1 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cody Barton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wolford | 14/26 | 178 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_13_SEA_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 50 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 14 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.5 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −2.5 |
| +9.5 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 14% | +3.9 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 11% | −4.1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Ryan Neal | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Irvin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al Woods | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 2 | −2.1 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 | +4.2 |
| John Wolford | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Bryce Perkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 20% | −1.6 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +2.2 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +2.7 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 12% | +2.4 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 20% | −1.2 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −4.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derion Kendrick | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ernest Jones | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonah Williams | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| David Long | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
